Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXPAND
IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH 06Z AS THE MAIN ACTION WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CURRENT READINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
LATER.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
515 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...THIS EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING TO THE
NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR
INTERSTATE 40. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING BEING A BIGGER THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM AND DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WHILE
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT
AND HUMID. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PREVAIL FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.