Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NRN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SE KS/SW
MO/FAR NE OK AND NW AR THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A MCV CURRENTLY
MOVING E ACROSS SRN KS. CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD HAS RESULTED IN A
WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHED FROM NW OK
INTO WCNTRL AR...WITH RECENT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOTED
S OF KFSM. ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
CONVECTION GOING...ALTHOUGH MODEL PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS VARIES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN
THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM. CONFIDENCE ISN'T AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND PLAN ON A COMPOSITE QPF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. WILL
EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH AT 12Z MONDAY...AND
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXTEND THIS.

SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT GRADUALLY N MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE WLY DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOW POPS ALONG THE KS/MO BORDERS...ALTHOUGH BULK OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR N.

A SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...AND
STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD WLY/SWLY
UPPER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FEATURE...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AT THIS TIME. ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST A REASONABLE SUB-TROPICAL
CONNECTION DURING THIS PERIOD...SO WE'LL NEED TO BE AWARE OF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

MONDAY/TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH
HIGHS PUSHING 100F ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK/WCNTRL AR. WILL LIKELY NEED
HEAT HEADLINES FOR THESE DAYS...BUT WILL DEFER TO EVENING/NIGH CREW
FOR FINAL DECISION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  99  77 100 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   74  97  75 100 /  30  30  10  10
MLC   75 100  76 101 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   73  97  72 100 /  40  20  20  10
FYV   72  93  73  95 /  60  40  20  10
BYV   69  90  72  94 /  70  60  20  10
MKO   72  99  74  99 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   72  96  74  97 /  70  30  30  10
F10   75  99  76 100 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   75 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-
     OKZ063.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

ARZ029-OKZ076-042230-
LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
506 PM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     WESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 507 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SCULLYVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...ROCK ISLAND...SPIRO...POCOLA...SCULLYVILLE...
BRADEN...MILL CREEK...HACKETT...JENSON AND BONANZA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3518 9435 3518 9461 3527 9464 3531 9455
      3530 9449 3533 9449 3536 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 253DEG 5KT 3524 9454

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 PM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

ARZ019-OKZ069-072-042315-
ADAIR OK-CRAWFORD AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
540 PM CDT SUN AUG 4 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR

AT 540 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHORT TO 6 MILES NORTH OF SHORT
TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF SHORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SHORT...
UNIONTOWN...CEDARVILLE...NATURAL DAM AND LEE CREEK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3554 9427 3549 9449 3560 9456 3567 9465
      3576 9448 3573 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 246DEG 11KT 3565 9460 3566 9450
          3550 9447