Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR. LOCALIZED LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL
OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WAVE TRAIN ROLLING ALONG IN NORTHWEST FLOW HAULING
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS PROVED EFFICIENT
HAIL PRODUCERS OVERNIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED HRRR MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN
GOOD LAST SIX HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE ACTION.  BULK OF
CURRENT PRECIP EAST OF NORTHWEST AR ZONES AROUND 18Z.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHAT BOUNDARIES ARE LEFT BEHIND
TO FIRE LATE AFTERNOON..OR EVENING. TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON..IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY  SAGGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY IGNITE  ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER.  CAPE VALUES
IN THE  2000 J/KG  NEIGHBORHOOD  AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION.

CONVECTION MIGRATING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING MOST
AREAS  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH A DRY  WARM EASTER.
SHOWERS  THUNDER MOST LIKELY NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

NEXT WAVE AND REAL COLD FRONT ARRIVE SOMETIME MONDAY.
WRF VERY FAST AND THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING IN THE COLD
AIR COMPARED TO  MOST OF THE  OTHER MODELS. RESULTING
WRF MOS BASED MAX TEMPS SOME  15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER
FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. USED FOUR MODEL MAX TEMP.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD. ECMWF CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF BRINGING AN UPPER
LOW DIRECTLY OVER FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE GFS WEAKER
DRIER... MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE. ECMWF TOO
GOOD TO TOTALLY IGNORE..CHANCE POPS MIDWEEK.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  51  73  43 /  50  60  10  10
FSM   73  56  74  48 /  80  60  30  10
MLC   75  55  73  48 /  50  60  30  10
BVO   76  46  72  40 /  40  50  10  10
FYV   69  51  70  42 /  90  70  20   0
BYV   67  49  69  41 /  90  70  10   0
MKO   75  54  72  46 /  60  60  20  10
MIO   71  47  71  42 /  70  60   0  10
F10   76  54  72  47 /  50  60  20  10
HHW   74  57  72  53 /  60  60  60  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

DESPITE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT GOOD WARMING TODAY WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ALONG WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

OKZ054>056-301230-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
635 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NOWATA...NORTHERN OSAGE AND WASHINGTON

AT 635 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOUTH COFFEYVILLE TO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK TO 6 MILES NORTH OF GRAINOLA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WANN...
PAWHUSKA...OKESA...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER...HULAH...
GRAINOLA...BARTLESVILLE...DEWEY...COPAN...SOUTH COFFEYVILLE...OSAGE
HILLS STATE PARK AND WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3701 9545 3699 9543 3666 9544 3662 9654
      3695 9676 3700 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1135Z 309DEG 38KT 3721 9583 3705 9622
          3700 9662

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