Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SOME LATE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z RUN IN SUGGESTING 2
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BAND OF
STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OK FORCED BY WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EAST...EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING NORTHWEST AR LATER. THE STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN
INTENSITY...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS WEAKER OVER EASTERN OK
THAN AREAS TO OUR WEST...SO THE SEVERE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL REMAINS
LIMITED AND ISOLATED.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST OK LATER. THERE IS
ALSO SUGGESTION THAT THIS CLUSTER WILL ALSO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE TOWARD 12Z...POSSIBLY DUE TO UPPER IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN HI PLAINS.

I HAVE EXPANDED THE LIKELY POPS NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MORE OF
NORTHEAST OK. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
CEILINGS WILL BE WIDELY VARIED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
VALID PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MOST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME BUT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ITS VICINITY AS
WELL. THERE WILL BE A HAIL THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

A MUCH STRONGER AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF
RAIN ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY
BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING. BELIEVE THE NAM IS OVERDONE IN
SHOWING WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL GIVEN FIRST OF APRIL
CLIMATOLOGY...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THE MUCH COLDER NAM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE AT LEAST CLOSER TO REALITY THAN THE OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF.

THE ECMWF DEPICTS A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK THAN ALL OTHER MODELS. GIVEN
THAT THE UKMET IS NOT ONBOARD WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...PREFER TO
SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME AND KEEP IT DRY BUT STILL
COOL FOR EARLY APRIL. A ROBUST WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN NEXT
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

WENT NEAR OR ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
945 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EAST EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD MORNING. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT SOUTHEAST OK.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LIMITED
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS GROW INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD RISK IS NOT
EXPECTED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LACK OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MORE
ISOLATED. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY DOES WARRANT A LIMITED TO LOW END ELEVATED RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER EXISTS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ON SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     HAIL             4 NNE LEONARD           35.97N 95.77W
03/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     HAIL             1 NNW COWETA            35.97N 95.66W
03/29/2013  E1.25 INCH       WAGONER            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED THE ROAD AT 193RD AND 141ST.

&&

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

OKZ061-300600-
ROGERS OK-
1212 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL ROGERS

AT 1212 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF VERDIGRIS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...VERDIGRIS...TIAWAH...
FOYIL AND BUSHYHEAD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3650 9544 3621 9544 3622 9580 3637 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 252DEG 10KT 3627 9574

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1217 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

OKZ061-062-067-300600-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
1217 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS AND CENTRAL WAGONER

AT 1217 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
WAGONER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WAGONER AND MAZIE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3611 9547 3613 9535 3593 9534 3596 9561
      3608 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 264DEG 9KT 3601 9556

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

OKZ067-068-300700-
CHEROKEE OK-WAGONER OK-
115 AM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN WAGONER

AT 115 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WAGONER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULBERT...LOST CITY...WAGONER AND
SEQUOYAH STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3608 9509 3584 9514 3594 9551 3607 9550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 277DEG 14KT 3599 9540