Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AND HERE WE GO AGAIN...SEVERE STORMS EXPLODING ALONG FRONT
SITUATED FROM OSAGE COUNTY TO WEST OF OKC METRO WITH INTERSECTING
DRY LINE OVER FAR SW OK. STORMS SOUTHWEST OF OKC RAPIDLY BECAME
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THREAT OF THAT EXTENDS OVER MOST OF
EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO
FORM OVER OSAGE/PAWNEE AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. SEVERE
WEATHER COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS ROUND AND
ALL MODES AGAIN POSSIBLE.

CONCERN LATER TONIGHT TURNS TO FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AS STORMS
SPREAD EAST AND LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TARGETING AN AREA FROM CENTRAL OK
THROUGH NORTHWEST AR WITH THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF PRECIP...THOUGH
WITH SOME OBVIOUS DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST QPF. ENOUGH
CONSENSUS EXISTS WITH SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOUTH OF I-44
BY TUESDAY THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CARRIED ONLY FOR
TONIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DEGREE OF THREAT
CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A POTENTIAL ISSUE HERE IS A STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND INTO TX/OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NORTH OF THE FRONT
AND CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THAT WILL BE TARGETED TONIGHT. GFS IS THE AGGRESSIVE
MODEL IN THIS SOLUTION BUT DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN APPEAR LIKELY BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED MORE OVER SE OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LIKELY JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY TO RETURN
NORTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY. PATTERN LOOKS EARLY SUMMER LIKE AND WITH
RIDGE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST...COULD SEE SOME OVERNIGHT MCS
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  76  57  82 /  90  60  10  10
FSM   70  77  60  84 /  80  90  70  10
MLC   70  76  56  85 /  90  80  20  10
BVO   60  77  50  80 /  80  40  10  10
FYV   65  74  53  78 /  90  80  60  10
BYV   64  75  56  79 /  90  90  70  10
MKO   67  76  56  82 /  90  80  20  10
MIO   63  76  54  80 /  80  70  30  10
F10   68  76  57  82 /  90  60  10  10
HHW   70  81  63  86 /  70  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
506 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING...RISK FOR ALL MODES OF
SEVERE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
	ONSET...ONGOING.

 	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EASTERN OKLAHOMA .

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF I-40.

DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDES NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE
44 CORRIDOR. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH THE EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL
REMAIN LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND WILL
CARRY A A HIGH RISK OF LONG TRACK TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
AND AND WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH.

ADDITIONALLY...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL
POSE A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING RISK TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE GREATEST THREAT
TONIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THESE AREAS MAY BE COMMON. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 7 INCH AMOUNTS
WILL QUICKLY HEIGHTEN THE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND WILL
AGAIN INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MOST OF THE WEATHER HAS REMAINED WEST OF THOSE
LOCATIONS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
232 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKZ054-202000-
OSAGE OK-
232 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 232 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SHIDLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIDLER...PEARSONIA AND BIGHEART.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3684 9616 3659 9660 3673 9674 3701 9635
      3700 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 231DEG 27KT 3672 9658

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKZ054-059-202030-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
252 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 253 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
TERLTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OSAGE...HOMINY...JENNINGS...
TERLTON...HALLETT...CLEVELAND...WESTPORT AND WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3653 9625 3635 9608 3616 9640 3616 9657
      3624 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 231DEG 27KT 3623 9649

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             CLEVELAND               36.31N 96.46W
05/20/2013  E0.88 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   POST OFFICE

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             9 N BIGHEART            36.98N 96.23W
05/20/2013  E4.25 INCH       OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

            SOFTBALL AND BASEBALL HAIL OBSERVED 8N OF HERD

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
429 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TORNADO          3 S AVANT               36.45N 96.06W
05/20/2013                   OSAGE              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE SPOTTERS AND BROADCAST MEDIA REPORT A LARGE
            TORNADO ON THE GROUND THAT FIRST DEVELOPED NEAR AVANT AND
            CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY. A TORNADO
            REMAINS ON THE GROUND EAST OF RAMONA PER BROADCAST MEDIA
            AS OF 428 PM.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          4 W TALALA              36.53N 95.77W
05/20/2013                   ROGERS             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY OKLAHOMA HIGHWAY PATROL

&&

KAH