Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Tulsa, OK

727 
WWUS54 KTSA 202011
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKC113-202045-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-130520T2045Z/
OSAGE OK-
311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY...

AT 309 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OSAGE
COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

THIS STORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. PEOPLE OUTDOORS
SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3691 9639 3701 9630 3701 9608 3700 9607
      3700 9603 3699 9603 3687 9628
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 238DEG 40KT 3694 9621

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS..FLYING CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK
OPTIMAL. MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST
PART WITH WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ADVANCING DRY LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PROGRESS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS CURRENTLY NEAR A KEMP-KJWG-KGSM LINE. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE AID OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX. TORNADOES AGAIN APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR THREAT
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OCCURRING BETWEEN INTERSTATES 44 AND 40.
LOCAL MODELS ARE GAINING GREATER CONSISTENCY IN HIGHLIGHTING
THIS AREA FOR TORNADOES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE OUT THIS
EVENING WITH STORMS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR TODAY.
TRYING TO PINPOINT TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ064.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG TRACK TORNADOES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH
INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ALREADY VERY UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW LONG TRACK VIOLENT TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 80 MPH.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BECOME
AN ISSUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
COMMON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
WOULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING.  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. PERSONS
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASED THREAT
AFTER MISSING THE BULK OF YESTERDAYS STORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             SHIDLER                 36.78N 96.66W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              OK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

0938 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURBANK                 36.69N 96.73W
05/19/2013                   OSAGE              OK   POST OFFICE

            SMALL BARN BLOWN DOWN. SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

0941 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NW BIGHEART           36.94N 96.34W
05/19/2013                   OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

            FEW TREE LIMBS DOWN

1001 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N FAIRFAX             36.59N 96.70W
05/19/2013                   OSAGE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE OVER ROAD

1043 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH COFFEYVILLE       36.99N 95.62W
05/19/2013                   NOWATA             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW POWER POLES DOWN

1112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N WELCH               36.97N 95.10W
05/19/2013                   CRAIG              OK   PUBLIC

            SINGLE POWER POLE DOWN.

&&

JBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             DRUMRIGHT               35.99N 96.60W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       CREEK              OK   STORM CHASER

0708 PM     HAIL             MANNFORD                36.13N 96.35W
05/19/2013  E0.88 INCH       CREEK              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0820 PM     HAIL             5 NE OKFUSKEE           35.65N 96.17W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       OKMULGEE           OK   PUBLIC

            REPORTED NEAR NUYAKA. HIGH WINDS WERE ALSO REPORTED.

0830 PM     HAIL             BEGGS                   35.35N 96.39W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       OKFUSKEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

0910 PM     HAIL             SHIDLER                 36.78N 96.66W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              OK   COUNTY OFFICIAL

0938 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURBANK                 36.69N 96.73W
05/19/2013                   OSAGE              OK   POST OFFICE

            SMALL BARN BLOWN DOWN. SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

0941 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NW BIGHEART           36.94N 96.34W
05/19/2013                   OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

            FEW TREE LIMBS DOWN

1001 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N FAIRFAX             36.59N 96.70W
05/19/2013                   OSAGE              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE OVER ROAD

1043 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH COFFEYVILLE       36.99N 95.62W
05/19/2013                   NOWATA             OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW POWER POLES DOWN

1112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N WELCH               36.97N 95.10W
05/19/2013                   CRAIG              OK   PUBLIC

            SINGLE POWER POLE DOWN.

&&

JBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     HAIL             5 NW COPAN              36.95N 95.99W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         OK   PUBLIC

&&

RBD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
232 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKZ054-202000-
OSAGE OK-
232 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE

AT 232 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SHIDLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIDLER...PEARSONIA AND BIGHEART.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3684 9616 3659 9660 3673 9674 3701 9635
      3700 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 231DEG 27KT 3672 9658

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
252 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKZ054-059-202030-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
252 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 253 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
TERLTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OSAGE...HOMINY...JENNINGS...
TERLTON...HALLETT...CLEVELAND...WESTPORT AND WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3653 9625 3635 9608 3616 9640 3616 9657
      3624 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 231DEG 27KT 3623 9649