Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Tulsa, OK

February 18, 2013Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Feb 18, 2013, 2:32 PM CST for Carroll County, Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 18, 2013, 2:32 PM CST (20:32 UTC)
Expired: Feb 18, 2013, 3:00 PM CST
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Feb 18, 2:19 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1166 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 442 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 402 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

557 
WUUS54 KTSA 182032
SVRTSA
ARC015-087-182100-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0018.130218T2032Z-130218T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
232 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
  NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 230 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
  MARBLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

  STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RUDD...
  RULE...GREEN FOREST AND CARROLLTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9365 3629 9373 3643 9330 3635 9329
      3621 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 251DEG 42KT 3624 9360

$$

2 follow-up statements

329 
WWUS54 KTSA 182036
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

ARC015-087-182100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130218T2100Z/
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
236 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR
NORTHERN MADISON AND CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 234 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR METALTON...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...RUDD...
RULE...CONNOR...GREEN FOREST...CARROLLTON...COIN AND DENVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3620 9362 3627 9368 3643 9330 3635 9329
      3621 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 251DEG 42KT 3626 9353

$$

898 
WWUS54 KTSA 182055
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

ARC015-087-182105-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130218T2100Z/
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
255 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MADISON AND CENTRAL
CARROLL COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 300 PM CST...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM.

LAT...LON 3620 9362 3627 9368 3643 9330 3635 9329
      3621 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 251DEG 42KT 3633 9328

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Feb 18, 11:19 AM CST, 3 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 18, 11:19 AM CST, 3 hours 13 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUBSIDING.  SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST BY 22 TO 23Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY EFFECTIVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH BOTH
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CURRENTLY
STARTING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED...BUT
COULD SEE A FEW STORMS APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BEFORE EXITING
AFOREMENTIONED AREA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-
     OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...12

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 18, 10:25 AM CST, 4 hours 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1025 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1025 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STRONG WINDS WILL
KEEP A ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL GOING FOR MUCH OF THE  DAY...
HOWEVER THE OVERALL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL OFFSET SOME OF THIS THREAT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
LIMITED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...
...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY
BEGINNING AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANY WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
TIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 18, 1:38 PM CST, 54 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
138 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

OKZ049-074>076-182015-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
138 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...WESTERN LE FLORE...NORTHEASTERN
     PUSHMATAHA AND LATIMER

AT 138 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STIGLER TO 2 MILES WEST OF
YANUSH...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...STIGLER...LEQUIRE...KEOTA...
KANIMA...WILBURTON...YANUSH...BENGAL...DAMON...PANOLA...RED OAK...
WHITESBORO...TALIHINA...SUMMERFIELD...FANSHAWE...WISTER...SHADY
POINT...MILTON...PANAMA...BOKOSHE...SPIRO...SCULLYVILLE...
COWLINGTON...KIAMICHI...ALBION...SARDIS...TALIMENA STATE PARK AND
LAKE WISTER STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3462 9548 3531 9514 3531 9468 3529 9466
      3529 9463 3531 9461 3531 9454 3530 9453
      3463 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 270DEG 36KT 3523 9508 3471 9533

Special weather statement, Feb 18, 1:46 PM CST, 46 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
146 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-OKZ068-069-072-182045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CRAWFORD AR-MADISON
AR-SEQUOYAH OK-WASHINGTON AR-
146 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN BENTON...WESTERN CARROLL...NORTHERN CRAWFORD...
     NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND WASHINGTON

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

AT 146 PM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LAKE FRANCIS TO 3 MILES NORTH OF MC KEY...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN BENTON...WESTERN CARROLL...NORTHERN
CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN MADISON...WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN
CHEROKEE...NORTHERN SEQUOYAH AND ADAIR COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS THROUGH 245 PM CST.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3564 9408 3543 9501 3622 9455 3634 9367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 257DEG 40KT 3616 9449 3553 9486

Local storm report, Feb 18, 1:57 PM CST, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
157 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             4 WNW SALLISAW          35.48N 94.85W
02/18/2013  E1.75 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

&&

SFP

Special weather statement, Feb 18, 2:01 PM CST, 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
201 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ076-182030-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
201 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     WESTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 201 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BRADEN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...POCOLA...BRADEN...ARKOMA...PLEASANT HILL...MILL
CREEK...MULBERRY...VESTA...FORT SMITH...BARLING...LAVACA...RYE
HILL...CENTRAL CITY...KIBLER AND DYER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3537 9399 3523 9448 3531 9452 3531 9448
      3534 9450 3536 9448 3555 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 244DEG 47KT 3529 9445

Local storm report, Feb 18, 2:18 PM CST, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             5 NE SALLISAW           35.51N 94.72W
02/18/2013  E1.00 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

            NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN
            AKINS.

&&

AEJ

Local storm report, Feb 18, 2:25 PM CST, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
225 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             3 W SHORT               35.57N 94.54W
02/18/2013  E1.00 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

AEJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 18, 9:55 AM CST	Wind Advisory	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	8 hr
Feb 18, 12:32 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	58 min
Feb 18, 1:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	25 min
Feb 18, 1:46 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	59 min
Feb 18, 1:56 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford	49 min
Feb 18, 2:01 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford	29 min
Feb 18, 2:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	51 min
Feb 18, 2:18 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	42 min
Feb 18, 2:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin	33 min
Feb 18, 2:49 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Madison	26 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2013 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.