River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM NW CORNER OF ARKANSAS TO NEAR I-40 IN CENTRAL OK.
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST LOCAL IFR. TREND WILL BE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
EVENING CONVECTION HAS LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
ZONE AND WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT PROLONGED BACK BUILDING
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR NW AR...AND WHILE RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE...ANY FURTHER RAINFALL IN THIS AREA WILL QUICKLY BECOME
RUN-OFF. FURTHER SOUTHWEST THE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS
ALSO SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAIN MUDDLED AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY NW-SE THROUGH KS CONTINUES TO
ROTATE TOWARD THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INSIST IN CONTINUED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE THE LARGELY OVERTURNED NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...SO WE
WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. ANY SVR
THREAT LOOKS LIMITED AT BEST. THE UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS BASED ON
THE THIS SCENARIO...AND MAKE MINOR CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS AS ONGOING CONVECTION HAS IMPACTS LOW TEMPS ALREADY IN
A FEW LOCATIONS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG THE HIGHWAY 412 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
               AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD.
THE STORMS WERE GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 412 CORRIDOR
EAST OF TULSA. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A LOT OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 18 TO 24
HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A
STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.