Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
STRETCHING FROM NW CORNER OF ARKANSAS TO NEAR I-40 IN CENTRAL OK.
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST LOCAL IFR. TREND WILL BE TO VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
EVENING CONVECTION HAS LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
ZONE AND WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT PROLONGED BACK BUILDING
HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR NW AR...AND WHILE RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE...ANY FURTHER RAINFALL IN THIS AREA WILL QUICKLY BECOME
RUN-OFF. FURTHER SOUTHWEST THE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS
ALSO SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT REMAIN MUDDLED AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY NW-SE THROUGH KS CONTINUES TO
ROTATE TOWARD THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INSIST IN CONTINUED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE THE LARGELY OVERTURNED NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...SO WE
WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. ANY SVR
THREAT LOOKS LIMITED AT BEST. THE UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS BASED ON
THE THIS SCENARIO...AND MAKE MINOR CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS AS ONGOING CONVECTION HAS IMPACTS LOW TEMPS ALREADY IN
A FEW LOCATIONS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WHICH
COINCIDES WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER
HAS LIMITED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40.  A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.