Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Tulsa, OK

840 
WGUS74 KTSA 101045
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

ARC087-143-101330-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-130810T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
AND MADISON COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

AT 545 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. 2 TO 3 
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN MADISON 
COUNTY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...AURORA...BLACKBURN...BOSTON...BRENTWOOD...ELKINS...
JAPTON...KINGSTON...PETTIGREW...SAINT PAUL...WESLEY...WEST FORK...
WINSLOW AND WITTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN HILLY TERRAIN ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IN
HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND
ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER
TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 9345 3592 9350 3587 9352 3576 9352
      3577 9391 3576 9392 3577 9412 3575 9413
      3576 9423 3593 9426 3608 9394 3613 9352
      3612 9348 3609 9347 3608 9344

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY... THE FRONT RUNS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
JUST SOUTH OF DFW CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS
PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE
DAY.

AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FLATTENS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA... HOWEVER QPF VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

AS NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW
BEGINNING MONDAY... ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY WILL AGAIN CREATE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL... GENERALLY FROM
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH SOILS REMAINING NEARLY SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS... FLOODING WILL AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  72  91  75 /  20  10  20  20
FSM   88  73  90  74 /  40  40  40  20
MLC   88  72  94  75 /  30  20  20  10
BVO   87  70  91  72 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   84  69  85  71 /  40  30  40  20
BYV   83  68  84  70 /  40  30  40  20
MKO   86  71  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
MIO   87  70  89  72 /  20  20  20  20
F10   87  72  92  76 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   94  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
931 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
               ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS
REMAINING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...
A FLASH FLOODING RISK CONTINUES WITH THE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...AND
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED IN
PARTS OF BENTON AND CARROLL COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THOSE
AREAS WILL QUICKLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING IN A MODERATE OR HEAVY
DOWNPOUR. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE MORE OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT
                          POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION...AND REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SUPPORT REPEATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A FEW HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER WEATHER PREVAILING FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.