Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Tulsa, OK

106 
WGUS74 KTSA 101141
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

ARC047-101430-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-130810T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FRANKLIN AR-
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 640 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTUINING OVER NORTHEAST 
CRAWFORD AND SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTIES.  THESE STORMS WILL TRACK 
ACROSS NORTHERN FRANKLIN COVER OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND WORSEN 
ANY ONGOING FLOODING.  1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY 
OCCURRED WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
CASS AND FERN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN HILLY TERRAIN ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS IN
HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND
ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER
TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 9370 3554 9404 3557 9403 3558 9407
      3566 9407 3566 9399 3570 9398 3571 9396
      3573 9396 3573 9392 3576 9389 3576 9391
      3576 9369

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY... THE FRONT RUNS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
JUST SOUTH OF DFW CUTTING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS
PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE
DAY.

AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN FLATTENS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA... HOWEVER QPF VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL NOT BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

AS NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW
BEGINNING MONDAY... ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY WILL AGAIN CREATE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL... GENERALLY FROM
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH SOILS REMAINING NEARLY SATURATED FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS... FLOODING WILL AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  72  91  75 /  20  10  20  20
FSM   88  73  90  74 /  40  40  40  20
MLC   88  72  94  75 /  30  20  20  10
BVO   87  70  91  72 /  10  10  10  20
FYV   84  69  85  71 /  40  30  40  20
BYV   83  68  84  70 /  40  30  40  20
MKO   86  71  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
MIO   87  70  89  72 /  20  20  20  20
F10   87  72  92  76 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   94  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
505 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK...ALONG WITH PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END
BY MID MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  A LIMITED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.  THE LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LARGE STORM
COMPLEX COULD AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD THIS STORM COMPLEX EVOLVE...THEN IT WOULD LIKELY A BRING
A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN.  DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY...BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND MAIN STEM
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.