Wind Advisory 6, NWS Topeka, KS

831 
WWUS73 KTOP 162102
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
302 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

KSZ011-012-023-024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059-162215-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-131116T2100Z/
NEMAHA-BROWN-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-
DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HIAWATHA...TOPEKA...LAWRENCE...
EMPORIA...OTTAWA
302 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. WINDS HAVE DECREASED
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
544 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2013

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

Gusty winds continued overnight across central and eastern Kansas
with a tight pressure gradient across the area. Winds have been
gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range early this morning. profilers and
VAD winds from the radars show low level jet of 50 to 55 kts across
eastern Kansas at 09Z. Low level moisture has been increasing
through the night.

Today, a shortwave trough will move across Kansas exiting during the
evening hours. Low level moisture advection will continue through
the day. Forecast soundings indicate moderately steep mid level lase
rates. Isentropic lift this morning will keep a small chance of
showers through the late morning. The shortwave trough this
afternoon will increase upward vertical motion across eastern
Kansas. Mixed layer CAPE increases across northeast and east central
Kansas to 500-600 J/kg during the afternoon. Will continue with
thunderstorm chances into the early evening hours across northeast
Kansas. Drier air will move into east central Kansas during the
evening hours. Southwest low level jet around 50 kts will continue
through the day. Expect winds to remain gusty through much of the
day as boundary layer remains well mixed. Momentum transfer will
keep gusts to around 40 mph especially across northeast and east
central Kansas into the afternoon hours. Cloud cover may inhibit
winds from reaching wind advisory levels and will continue to
monitor. Temperatures today will warm to around 70 even in the cloud
cover in east central Kansas.

Tonight, A second shortwave will move out of the Rockies and across
the Central Plains. Moisture will be focused to the northeast across
northern Missouri and Iowa tonight as the low level jet veers to the
west. Will keep isolated thunderstorms in the northeast through mid
evening, then dry for the rest of the night. Another mild night is
expected tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

West-northwest winds will increase quickly Sunday with deep mixing
occurring behind the departing negatively-tilted upper wave and cold
front. Strong cold air advection and winds through the column
becoming more unidirectional with time in strong subsidence will
result in good momentum transfer from northwest to southeast. Speeds
off the surface do decrease with time so extreme winds are not
anticipated, but values may again near advisory levels particularly
in the west and north. The modified airmass and deep mixing will
still bring highs into the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Pacific high pressure at the surface will make slow eastward
progress out of the Central Plains Sunday night into Tuesday with
near normal temps the rule. Models coming into somewhat better
agreement with a cold front and northern branch wave bringing
limited precipitation chances for Wednesday and Wednesday night
and will go ahead with slight PoPs. Differences in the handling of
energy moving through (or cutting off in) the split flow amplify
by the late week. Cooler Canadian air will continue to filter in
but the track and speed of a wave in southern branch will be key
in the timing and intensity of precip chances, and operational and
ensemble runs are showing large spreads with it. This will keep
PoPs in the chance range into Friday with wintry precip potential
increasing with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

Strong south to southwest winds around 20 kts with gusts to 34 kts
are expected to continue through 18Z, then slowly decreasing
through the afternoon. However winds will remain around 14 kts
after 23Z. MVFR cigs likely to continue through 18Z at TOP and FOE
while MHK will be VFR with a MVFR cig possible through 15Z. Low
level moisture decreases after 18Z and expect VFR cigs for the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH Sunday afternoon FOR KSZ020-021-034-035.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171300-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
648 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM
MARYSVILLE TO COUNCIL GROVE. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.