Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

481 
WWUS83 KTOP 161957
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
157 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. IN
COMBINATION WITH DRY FALL FUELS...A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER SITUATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.

KSZ008-020>022-034>037-171200-
/O.CON.KTOP.FW.W.0001.131117T1800Z-131118T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
157 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 008 REPUBLIC...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 020 CLOUD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 022 RILEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 034 OTTAWA...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 035 DICKINSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 036 GEARY AND FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 037 MORRIS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...NOON TO 6PM SUNDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15-21 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 50S.

* IMPACTS...FIRES MAY SPREAD QUICKLY AND BE VERY DIFFICULT TO 
  CONTROL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

454 
WWUS83 KTOP 171143
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
543 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

.HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TODAY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. IN COMBINATION WITH
DRY FALL FUELS...A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.

KSZ008-020>022-034>037-171945-
/O.CON.KTOP.FW.W.0001.131117T1800Z-131118T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
543 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS...DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 008 REPUBLIC...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 020 CLOUD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 022 RILEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 034 OTTAWA...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 035 DICKINSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 036 GEARY AND FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 037 MORRIS.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...NOON TO 6PM SUNDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 50S.

* IMPACTS...FIRES MAY SPREAD QUICKLY AND BE VERY DIFFICULT TO 
  CONTROL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

997 
WWUS83 KTOP 171838
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

.HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TODAY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. IN COMBINATION
WITH DRY FALL FUELS...A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
SITUATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.

KSZ023-038>040-054>056-058-059-180000-
/O.EXA.KTOP.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131118T0000Z/
POTTAWATOMIE-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
ANDERSON-
1238 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 023 POTTAWATOMIE...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 038 WABAUNSEE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 039 SHAWNEE...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 040 DOUGLAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 054 LYON...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 OSAGE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 FRANKLIN...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 058 COFFEY AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 059 
  ANDERSON.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 55 TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...NOON TO 6PM SUNDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 60.

* IMPACTS...FIRES MAY SPREAD QUICKLY AND BE VERY DIFFICULT TO 
  CONTROL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

KSZ008-020>022-034>037-180000-
/O.CON.KTOP.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131118T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
1238 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS...DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 008 REPUBLIC...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 020 CLOUD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 CLAY...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 022 RILEY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 034 OTTAWA...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 035 DICKINSON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 036 GEARY AND FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 037 MORRIS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 55 TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...NOON TO 6PM SUNDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 50S.

* IMPACTS...FIRES MAY SPREAD QUICKLY AND BE VERY DIFFICULT TO 
  CONTROL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

392 
WWUS83 KTOP 172357
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013


KSZ008-020>023-034>040-054>056-058-059-180100-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-131118T0000Z/
REPUBLIC-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-
MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-
ANDERSON-
557 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

WINDS SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG 
WARNING ISSUED EARLIER TODAY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2013

...Update for near term wind and thunderstorm chances, and
aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

Mid day surface analysis places a zone of low level convergence
roughly from Junction City through Holton and St Joseph Missouri.
South of this line, winds are quite strong from 180 to 190
degrees. North of the line, winds are fairly strong from 210 to
220 degrees. Cloud patterns in the visible satellite suggest
strong low level wind shear amidst a moist boundary layer
characterized by dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s in far
eastern Kansas. The intersection of this moist axis with the
convergent zone indicates a zone of heightened awareness for
isolated thunderstorm development by 3 to 5 PM. The most favored
area for development, also highlighted in recent runs of HRRR,
RAP, NMM, and ARW, seems to run along the convergent zone from
Wabaunsee county northeast, with storm motion to the ENE off the
boundary. Storm chances increase with eastward extent due to
increased moisture quality. MLCAPE by mid afternoon will be in the
500 to 1000 J/KG range while wind shear profiles have quite a bit
of low level helicity and plenty of speed shear into the mid
levels. The primary questions are 1. whether storms can actually
develop amidst the relatively weak low level convergence, and 2.
If they can intensify before moving out of Kansas as a bit of a
shear/instability imbalance may make it difficult for storms to
organize quickly. Bottom line is that some convective development
should be expected along the aforementioned boundary in far
eastern Kansas. IF storms can quickly organized, there would be a
brief window of opportunity for a couple of strong to severe
storms roughly from 4 PM to 7 PM with small hail and damaging wind
potential...and the smallest chance of a tornado in extreme
eastern Kansas.

Regarding winds, the peak of wind speeds is likely to occur
between 11 AM and 1 PM with a gradual decrease thereafter,
although remaining windy overall. Expect gusts to fall below 45
mph by 3 PM or so as the low level wind field weakens slightly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

Gusty winds continued overnight across central and eastern Kansas
with a tight pressure gradient across the area. Winds have been
gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range early this morning. profilers and
VAD winds from the radars show low level jet of 50 to 55 kts across
eastern Kansas at 09Z. Low level moisture has been increasing
through the night.

Today, a shortwave trough will move across Kansas exiting during the
evening hours. Low level moisture advection will continue through
the day. Forecast soundings indicate moderately steep mid level lase
rates. Isentropic lift this morning will keep a small chance of
showers through the late morning. The shortwave trough this
afternoon will increase upward vertical motion across eastern
Kansas. Mixed layer CAPE increases across northeast and east central
Kansas to 500-600 J/kg during the afternoon. Will continue with
thunderstorm chances into the early evening hours across northeast
Kansas. Drier air will move into east central Kansas during the
evening hours. Southwest low level jet around 50 kts will continue
through the day. Expect winds to remain gusty through much of the
day as boundary layer remains well mixed. Momentum transfer will
keep gusts to around 40 mph especially across northeast and east
central Kansas into the afternoon hours. Cloud cover may inhibit
winds from reaching wind advisory levels and will continue to
monitor. Temperatures today will warm to around 70 even in the cloud
cover in east central Kansas.

Tonight, A second shortwave will move out of the Rockies and across
the Central Plains. Moisture will be focused to the northeast across
northern Missouri and Iowa tonight as the low level jet veers to the
west. Will keep isolated thunderstorms in the northeast through mid
evening, then dry for the rest of the night. Another mild night is
expected tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

West-northwest winds will increase quickly Sunday with deep mixing
occurring behind the departing negatively-tilted upper wave and cold
front. Strong cold air advection and winds through the column
becoming more unidirectional with time in strong subsidence will
result in good momentum transfer from northwest to southeast. Speeds
off the surface do decrease with time so extreme winds are not
anticipated, but values may again near advisory levels particularly
in the west and north. The modified airmass and deep mixing will
still bring highs into the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Pacific high pressure at the surface will make slow eastward
progress out of the Central Plains Sunday night into Tuesday with
near normal temps the rule. Models coming into somewhat better
agreement with a cold front and northern branch wave bringing
limited precipitation chances for Wednesday and Wednesday night
and will go ahead with slight PoPs. Differences in the handling of
energy moving through (or cutting off in) the split flow amplify
by the late week. Cooler Canadian air will continue to filter in
but the track and speed of a wave in southern branch will be key
in the timing and intensity of precip chances, and operational and
ensemble runs are showing large spreads with it. This will keep
PoPs in the chance range into Friday with wintry precip potential
increasing with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

MVFR ceilings at TOP/FOE are expected to lift to VFR and decrease
in coverage early this afternoon. Winds will remain quite strong
with occasional gusts greater than 40 kts at TOP/FOE, and greater
than 30 kts at MHK. Winds decrease this evening, but are expected
to pick up again overnight and gust possibly up to 40 kts from the
west by late Sunday morning. There is a small chance for TS at
TOP/FOE between 21Z and 00Z, and also a small chance of MVFR/IFR
ceilings developing between 04Z and 08Z, but seems to be a much
higher chance of remaining VFR through the night.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ011-012-023-
024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH Sunday afternoon FOR KSZ020-021-034-035.

&&

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-171300-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
648 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM
MARYSVILLE TO COUNCIL GROVE. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.