Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
422 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. UPPER JET IS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION ENHANCING LIFT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS HAVE OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST KANSAS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE
VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO
50 KTS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 100 TO
150 M2/S2 IS FORECAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CWA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE TOWARD
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH CENTRAL TO
THE MID 60S EAST CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION
GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW SPINS EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE BOUNDARY THAT GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS WILL LINGER WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA UNTIL THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
80S...THEN COOLING INTO GENERALLY THE MIDDLE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL WARRANT A REINTRODUCTION OF CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS THIS OCCURS...HIGHS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TIMING OF TSRA INTO
THE TERMINALS WITH MHK IN THE 19Z-20Z TIME FRAME AND TOP AND FOE
AROUND 22Z. WITH SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN TAFS THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE THE EARLY EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER 02Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-201900-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HAIL...WITH SOME
GREATER THAN TWO INCHES...AS WELL AS STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY...WITH INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
615 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     TSTM WND GST     OSAGE CITY              38.63N 95.83W
05/19/2013  E65 MPH          OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
616 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             OSAGE CITY              38.63N 95.83W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
618 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HAIL             5 SSE SCRANTON          38.72N 95.72W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND GST     E ST. MARYS             39.19N 96.07W
05/19/2013  E57 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             1 SW OVERBROOK          38.77N 95.58W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORBES FIELD            38.96N 95.67W
05/19/2013  M58.00 MPH       SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

0632 PM     TSTM WND GST     BILLARD AIRPORT         39.08N 95.62W
05/19/2013  M61.00 MPH       SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

&&

KSANDERS