Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

SHORT TERM FORECAST (REST OF TUESDAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS LATER
TODAY AS A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. FURTHER WEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL
CIRCULATION IS OFF TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME
THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS AND WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...HOWEVER A FEW CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO GO UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
EXPERIENCED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED TO THE ESE. FURTHER SOUTH THE WINDS
ARE STILL OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT STILL BACKED ENOUGH TO BE SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC FOR ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET TO
BECOME BACKED TO AROUND 170-190 DEGREES AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY TO
AROUND 50 KTS AROUND SUNSET...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENLARGE THE
HODOGRAPHS. GIVEN THAT ML CAPE IS CURRENTLY IN THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG
RANGE AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE APPROACHING 40 TO 50
KTS EXPECT CELLS THAT DEVELOP TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND POTENTIALLY
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES APPROACHING 150 J/KG THIS
EVENING...INCREASING TO 200-300 J/KG AFTER SUNSET THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST...MOST ORGANIZED
CELLS. GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS DAYS HAVE BROUGHT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE AREA...THE THREAT FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THOSE
SOAKED AREAS WILL BRING A FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WITH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE FOR 1 HR AND 3
HR TIME FRAMES ITS PLAUSIBLE THAT TRAINING STORMS COULD BRING THOSE
RAIN RATES...HENCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. EXPECT STORMS TO BE
ONGOING THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLEX PATTERN WITH MESSY
CONVECTION MAKES DETAILS AND TIMING OF WEATHER CHALLENGING.  FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS
OF OVERNIGHT MCS SHOULD AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I70.  AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS RATHER A CHALLENGE.  DRYLINE REMAINS WELL WEST OF
FORECAST AREA WHILE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH.
THUS...LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE TIED TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ADDED TO ANY MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH.  SHEAR FIELDS RATHER INTERESTING ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THAT NAM HAS STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR BUT RELATIVELY WEAK DEEPER LAYER SHEAR...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
CLUSTERS OF STORMS...AN MCS OR MESSY HP SUPERCELLS.  THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND HAS SOMEWHAT BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THUS WOULD LEAD
TO BETTER SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE...AND THUS LIKELY
BETTER TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...EVEN THE GFS HAS FAR FROM CLASSIC
HODOGRAPHS WITH S SHAPED VEER/BACK/VEER WIND PROFILES AND SOME
WEAKER STORM-RELATIVE WINDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS.  IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES FROM THESE NON-CLASSIC SHEAR
PROFILES.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...HAS LED TO
THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING FOR THAT AREA.  ANOTHER THREAT OF FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I70 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN.

AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY THE CHANCES FOR
STORMS LINGERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AM UNCERTAIN WHERE AND IF
THERE WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER IN THE
DAY. THERE COULD BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AS
WELL AS A FRONT/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THAT MAY BE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LINGER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
COINCIDE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DETAILS WILL BE MORE APPARENT IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ANOTHER WAY MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE FRONT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT. SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO
BE MOSTLY DRY AND TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A BOUNDARY BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER...BUT
STORMS COULD SLUMP SOUTH A BIT...AFFECTING KMHK AND PERHAPS TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE TOPEKA TERMINALS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE
ONGOING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN BY
MORNING.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ010>012-023-
024.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ008-020-
021-034-035.

&&

SHORT TERM...LEIGHTON
LONG TERM...PHILLIPS/SANDERS
AVIATION...LEIGHTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
508 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
508 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AN
OLD BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. WHILE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY CHANGE...AT THIS TIME THE I70
CORRIDOR INTO NE KANSAS SEEMS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY LOCATION FOR
STORMS TO INITIATE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WOULD LIKELY IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW WOODLAWN          39.77N 95.94W
05/28/2013  M5.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 645 PM THAT FELL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             4 SW ROBINSON           39.78N 95.45W
05/28/2013  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             3 N ROBINSON            39.86N 95.40W
05/28/2013  E2.00 INCH       BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
656 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             4 N FRANKFORT           39.76N 96.42W
05/28/2013  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   PUBLIC

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
658 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E ROBINSON            39.82N 95.35W
05/28/2013  M72 MPH          BROWN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

KSANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             MORROWVILLE             39.84N 97.17W
05/28/2013  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BARJENBRUCH