Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2013

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
The regional surface analysis from 20 UTC showed a cold front
entering the western portions of our forecast area, accompanied by
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Although there wasn't
much lightning, unusually strong winds not far above the surface
were mixing down as strong gusts. (The 2030 UTC VAD Wind Profile
from Fort Rucker- KEOX, had winds of 60 KT at only 2,000 ft AGL)
The threat of marginally damaging wind gusts (around 50 KT) will
likely continue into this evening, though all of the latest NWP
guidance indicates a downward trend in the overall threat after
sunset. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out, given the
impressive shear magnitudes from 0 to 1 km, but the main threat is
straight line wind gusts. It's doubtful that damaging winds will
make it all the way to our eastern zones, though the rain probably
will.

In addition to the severe storm potential, we will be dealing with
other potential threats as well. Wind gusts outside of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to reach 35 to 45 MPH, especially in
those areas that get some breaks in the clouds. These gusts will
diminish with sunset. Strong onshore winds have cause high surf,
dangerous rip currents, and tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal. All
these threats will subside later tonight as the cold front passes
through and cause a wind shift to the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
A quiet weather pattern is in store for this period, as a cool,
dry continental air dominates the weather at the surface. Highs
will be much cooler Thursday, only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A light freeze is possible Thursday and Friday nights, but we will
late the next shift(s) take a closer look at this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
The global models are forecasting a broad, mean trough in the
500 mb height field over the eastern CONUS for much of the period,
with a ridge possibly developing over the Southeast U.S. on Wed.
Much of our local weather will be dominated by an area of high
pressure at the surface, and a continental airmass. We expect
generally fair weather and near-average high temperatures, and
slightly below-average lows.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 21Z Wednesday]...
Mostly MVFR ceilings dominate our terminals this afternoon, with
high end IFR ongoing at KECP. Expect low end MVFR to high end IFR,
ahead, within, and just behind the front. As the front clears from
west to east, restrictions will lift under a mid level cloud deck,
and skies will eventually clear by dawn. Winds will be gusty for the
remainder of the afternoon, gusting near 40 knots at KDHN and KECP,
and around 30 knots elsewhere. Winds will shift from south to west
with the passage of the front, but remain elevated near 10 knots for
the remainder of the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
So far winds have not reached Gale-force over the coastal waters,
but they still might in a few hours, given the gusts being
observed at upstream buoys and oil platforms. These gusts will
diminish later this evening, but advisory conditions will persist
well into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critically low relative humidities will exist tomorrow afternoon.
Couple this with strong transport winds, and subsequent high
dispersions and Red Flag conditions become possible. Whether or not
a warning is issued will depend upon future ERC values, and will be
decided later tonight. For now, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect
for all of north Florida. These same conditions may exist on Friday,
and possibly Saturday as relative humidity values remain low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rain is expected through tonight, but major flooding is
unlikely because of the progressive nature of the cold front.
However, localized flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas
is possible, simply because of the volume of water with the
frontal rain band. QPF amounts will generally range from 2 inches
in the northwest portion of our forecast area, to half an inch at
Tallahassee. While this may cause some sharp rises at some of the
local rivers, they will likely remain below action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   42  60  30  64  28 / 90   0  10   0   0
Panama City   42  58  40  62  36 / 70   0  10   0   0
Dothan        37  59  36  59  29 / 70   0  10   0   0
Albany        39  59  33  59  28 / 90   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      43  59  32  62  28 / 90   0  10   0   0
Cross City    47  62  30  67  28 / 60   0  10   0   0
Apalachicola  43  57  39  61  36 / 80   0  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-
     Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.
     WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.
AL...WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Thursday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton
     Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to
     60 NM.
     GALE WARNING until 10 PM EST this evening for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&

NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...Fournier
AVIATION/FIRE WX...Harrigan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-312000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
300 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013 /200 PM CST WED JAN 30 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A
SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING AS THEY MOVE EAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL
CAUSE ROUGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS...WITH HIGH SURF AT THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF
45 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE OF VERY STRONG WINDS NOT FAR
ABOVE THE GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE CONSIDERED ACTIVE. DEACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE STORMS WIND DOWN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

FOURNIER/GOULD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     TSTM WND GST     ENE DALEVILLE           31.29N 85.72W
01/30/2013  M53 MPH          DALE               AL   AWOS

            46 KNOT WIND GUST MEASURED AT KOZR.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
328 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE OZARK             31.47N 85.60W
01/30/2013                   DALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ACROSS DALE COUNTY.

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLOPTON                 31.61N 85.43W
01/30/2013                   DALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES REPORTED DOWN IN AND AROUND THE CLOPTON AREA IN
            NORTHEAST DALE COUNTY.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
356 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ABBEVILLE               31.57N 85.25W
01/30/2013                   HENRY              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN PORTIONS OF HENRY COUNTY. SOME OF THE TREE
            DAMAGE WAS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG WINDS PRIOR TO THE
            THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE TREE
            DAMAGE ALSO OCCURRED WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              31.88N 85.11W
01/30/2013                   QUITMAN            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN QUITMAN COUNTY.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STANDLEYS STORE         31.70N 85.07W
01/30/2013                   CLAY               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES BLOWING DOWN IN CLAY COUNTY. A
            FEW OF THE REPORTS WERE RELATED TO NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
            JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS...BUT SOME OF THE REPORTS WERE
            RELATED TO STORMS AS WELL.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CHIPLEY                 30.78N 85.54W
01/30/2013                   WASHINGTON         FL   911 CALL CENTER

            DISPATCH REPORTS 8 TO 10 TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE. 3 ALONG
            HIGHWAY 90. NON THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.

&&

HARRIGAN