Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
352 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
An upper level high remains centered over Ohio this afternoon and is
ridging southward to FL. This ridge has shunted the retrograding
upper low all the way over the the TX Panhandle. A TUTT is noted
over the Bahamas. Surface high pressure is centered over the Mid
Atlantic states with an inverted trough off the east coast of FL.
Deep layer easterly flow on the southern end of the ridges is
evident in morning soundings and recent VWP data and is transporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms westward from the Atlantic into
the forecast area. Isolated showers are also moving west across the
FL Panhandle coastal waters. The wave east of FL will move west
across the state and eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Highest
PoPs this afternoon will be over our South Central GA zones. This
evening, PoPs lower to the slight to low chance category, slightly
higher over the waters. After midnight, and convection should be
limited to the marine area. There are no severe weather or flooding
concerns with any of this activity. Overnight lows will be near
normal in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Deep layer ridging will be will dominate much of the short term
period, with an anomalously high pressure over central Indiana. The
ridge position is such that our area will be in easterly flow
regime through Thursday. Latest model guidance is in good
agreement that this easterly flow will advect much drier air over
our area. Thus rain chances will be slightly below climatological
normals through Thursday which is good news for our area, which
has seen very large amounts of rain over the past couple of
weeks. The highest chance for seeing an isolated afternoon shower
will be in the far eastern Florida counties where the Atlantic and
Gulf sea breezes could potentially collide. Temperatures will
around normal with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
By the start of the long term period, we will be transitioning to
a more southeasterly flow as the high pressure currently over the
Ohio Valley weakens and Bermuda high builds to our west. A weak TUTT
low currently east of the northern Bahamas will slowly move
westward, and make its way into our area around Friday night. It
will then be picked up by an southward digging trough and eject
northeastward. Thus have enhanced PoPs slightly for the weekend and
start of next week to reflect these features influences.

&&

.AVIATION...
[through 18 UTC Tuesday] A weak easterly wave in a continuing moist
airmass will support scattered convection moving from east to west
across northern FL, SW GA, and SE AL this afternoon and evening
through about 02Z. The flow will keep showers and storms moving at
15-20kt. A similar pattern will be seen Tuesday. Expect generally
VFR conditions with moderate easterly surface winds along with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. From 08Z-14Z there will be
widespread low/IFR cigs as stratus redevelops in the moist air mass.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will keep our area in a
easterly flow regime. Tonight expect enhanced easterly winds at
cautionary levels. Models are indicating that winds could reach
small craft advisory levels. At this time confidence is low on
raising winds to advisory levels. but it may be possible later.
Beginning Wednesday we will start to transition into typical
summertime seas and winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected through the forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With drier air finally forecast to overspread the region from east
to west over the next day or so, rain chances and coverage will
dwindle each afternoon through Thursday. Additionally, deep layer
flow will at least have some eastward component around 20 or so
knots, resulting in progressive storm motions and a decreased risk
for localized flooding within storms that do develop. In general, we
will be transitioning back into a more typical summertime pattern.
Thus, expect area rivers to have time to recover, or fall back below
flood stage by the end of the week. The only notable exception is
the Choctawhatchee, where the most rain has fallen over the past
couple of weeks. Here, the river will take some extra time to begin
to subside, and is not forecast to fall out of flood stage near
Bruce, Geneva, or Caryville until sometime next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  90  72  93  71 / 30  30  20  20  10
Panama City   74  88  75  89  76 / 30  30  20  10  10
Dothan        71  90  71  92  72 / 30  30  20  10  10
Albany        72  91  72  92  72 / 20  30  20  10  10
Valdosta      72  91  70  92  71 / 20  40  20  20  10
Cross City    70  91  70  93  71 / 30  40  20  30  10
Apalachicola  76  87  76  87  76 / 30  30  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Navarro/Harrigan
LONG TERM...Navarro/Harrigan
AVIATION...Hollingsworth
MARINE...Navarro/Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan