Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2013

Tornado Watch 268

May 31, 201317 counties in Arkansas; 14 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 31, 2013, 11:23 PM CDT for 17 counties in Arkansas; 14 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2013, 11:23 PM CDT (04:23 UTC)
Expired: Jun 1, 2013, 4:00 AM CDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 70 kt

All 31 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

20 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 31, 11:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Delaware	37 min
May 31, 11:24 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Haskell, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg	51 min
May 31, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg	49 min
May 31, 11:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	67 min
May 31, 11:56 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg, Sequoyah	49 min
Jun 1, 12:11 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okfuskee, Okmulgee	49 min
Jun 1, 12:17 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	6 hr
Jun 1, 12:25 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, Muskogee and 2 more	50 min
Jun 1, 12:29 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Pittsburg	46 min
Jun 1, 12:57 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Benton, Crawford, Madison, Washington	48 min
Jun 1, 1:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	45 min
Jun 1, 1:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg	30 min
Jun 1, 1:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, McIntosh, Muskogee	48 min
Jun 1, 1:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Washington	49 min
Jun 1, 1:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Haskell, Sequoyah	40 min
Jun 1, 2:18 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Boone, Newton	42 min
Jun 1, 2:20 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Haskell, LeFlore, Muskogee, Sequoyah	6 hr
Jun 1, 2:40 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	LZK	Newton, Searcy	35 min
Jun 1, 2:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	35 min
Jun 1, 3:05 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian	6 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2316 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1144 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 210 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 3.0
Supercell composite: 16.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 31, 11:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Crawford, Sebastian	67 min
Jun 1, 1:51 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Boone, Carroll, Madison, Marion, Washington	114 min
Jun 1, 2:19 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson, Logan, Madison and 5 more	116 min
Jun 1, 3:46 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crawford and 24 more	29 min
Jun 1, 9:53 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Craighead and 22 more	2 hr
May 31, 8:02 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Craig, Creek, Garvin and 17 more	58 min
May 31, 11:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Hughes and 9 more	5 hr
Jun 1, 2:30 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blaine, Canadian, Cleveland, Hughes, Kingfisher, Lincoln and 6 more	2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2013 Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2013 Every tornado watch in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.