Tornado Warning 49, NWS Little Rock, AR

908 
WWUS54 KLZK 010802
SVSLZK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
302 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ARC101-129-010811-
/O.CAN.KLZK.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-130601T0815Z/
NEWTON AR-SEARCY AR-
302 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SEARCY AND EASTERN NEWTON
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3611 9294 3604 9281 3592 9274 3576 9324
      3592 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 237DEG 34KT 3602 9301

$$

51

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1234 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER WITH TIME. ELSEWHERE
... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEST FOR TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED
A NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
EXTREMELY HUMID AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA
AT THIS TIME...BUT THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS LARGELY KEPT A LID ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT LITTLE
ELSE.

PROVIDED THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY GET GOING LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN AND AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SLOWLY INTO THE REGION.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL. OVER ARKANSAS...THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT AS HIGH AS
THURSDAY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ANOTHER SERIOUS THREAT...PARTICULARLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION DURING THE MORNING WITH THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW...WITH THE PERIOD ENDING WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.

A WORD OF CAUTION...WITH THE ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE REGION...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDER DOING EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...AS WELL AS SLOW OVER ALL MEAN
STORM MOTION...AND THE TENDENCY OF STORMS TO FORM AND MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS...HAVE INCREASED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SRLY FLOW WILL BE RETURNING TO THE STATE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE STATE...WITH MOST
PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
BUCKLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...TURNING GRADUALLY TO THE SW.
AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING...AS WELL AS
RAIN CHANCES AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD IN THIS FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  77  56  80 /  60  20   0  10
CAMDEN AR         63  85  59  85 /  70  30   0  10
HARRISON AR       54  75  54  79 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  82  59  82 /  70  20   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  82  61  83 /  70  20   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  84  62  86 /  70  40   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      59  81  55  81 /  60  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  77  55  78 /  30  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        61  77  57  81 /  70  20   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  82  61  82 /  70  30   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  80  56  85 /  50  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         62  80  58  80 /  70  20   0  10
STUTTGART AR      65  81  62  81 /  70  20   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1245 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO THE AREA...AND HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREAS AFFECTED TONIGHT WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

TORNADOES CAN BE RULED OUT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG STORMS...AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY SATURATED DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY FINALLY ALLOWING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO
THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF AND WILL COVER
MUCH OF ARKANSAS. ALL OF ARKANSAS WILL BE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT
OF ARKANSAS EARLY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
206 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ARZ003-012-021-010750-
BOONE AR-JOHNSON AR-NEWTON AR-
206 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOONE...NEWTON AND
EXTREME NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 201 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF WALNUT...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF
LOST VALLEY SP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOST VALLEY SP...     JASPER...             HARRISON...
  WESTERN GROVE...      WALNUT...             VALLEY SPRINGS...
  UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...            PRUITT...
  PIERCETOWN...         OLVEY...              MYRTLE...
  ERBIE...              DUGGER...             CRAWFORD...
  CARVER...             CAPPS...              BERGMAN...
  ZINC...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3643 9305 3629 9289 3612 9289 3611 9295
      3602 9294 3572 9341 3579 9353 3588 9353
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 216DEG 42KT 3586 9342

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