Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521

September 11, 20134 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 11, 2013, 2:33 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 11, 2013, 2:33 PM EDT (18:33 UTC)
Expired
Sep 12, 2013, 12:00 AM EDT
In force
9 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 56 counties

Androscoggin County, ME, Aroostook County, ME, Cumberland County, ME, Franklin County, ME, Kennebec County, ME, Knox County, ME, Lincoln County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Penobscot County, ME, Piscataquis County, ME, Sagadahoc County, ME, Somerset County, ME, Waldo County, ME, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

53 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 11, 2:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCARAroostook, Piscataquis, Somerset41 min
Sep 11, 3:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCARAroostook, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Somerset50 min
Sep 11, 3:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex54 min
Sep 11, 4:04 PM EDTTornado WarningCARAroostook, Penobscot, Piscataquis26 min
Sep 11, 4:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCARAroostook, Penobscot, Piscataquis48 min
Sep 11, 4:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXFranklin, Somerset45 min
Sep 11, 4:27 PM EDTTornado WarningCARAroostook33 min
Sep 11, 4:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXOxford34 min
Sep 11, 4:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVFranklin, St. Lawrence61 min
Sep 11, 4:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCARAroostook, Penobscot52 min
Sep 11, 5:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVAddison, Orange, Rutland, Washington, Windsor54 min
Sep 11, 5:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXOxford50 min
Sep 11, 5:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVClinton65 min
Sep 11, 5:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYMontgomery, Schenectady, Schoharie31 min
Sep 11, 5:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCoos, Grafton66 min
Sep 11, 5:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXOxford58 min
Sep 11, 5:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCARAroostook23 min
Sep 11, 5:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYFulton, Hamilton, Montgomery, Saratoga66 min
Sep 11, 6:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVOrange29 min
Sep 11, 6:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXGrafton55 min
Sep 11, 6:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXBelknap, Grafton63 min
Sep 11, 6:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYRensselaer, Saratoga, Washington57 min
Sep 11, 6:44 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBTVOrange, Washington4 hr
Sep 11, 6:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCARPenobscot, Washington57 min
Sep 11, 6:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVCaledonia, Essex, Orleans57 min
Sep 11, 6:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXOxford41 min
Sep 11, 6:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYSaratoga, Warren, Washington56 min
Sep 11, 6:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYGreene, Ulster65 min
Sep 11, 7:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXFranklin, Oxford57 min
Sep 11, 7:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXGrafton57 min
Sep 11, 7:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVAddison, Rutland, Windsor57 min
Sep 11, 7:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Kennebec, Oxford48 min
Sep 11, 7:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYWashington47 min
Sep 11, 7:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVRutland, Windsor58 min
Sep 11, 7:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXFranklin, Somerset56 min
Sep 11, 7:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVFranklin, St. Lawrence54 min
Sep 11, 7:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCARPenobscot, Washington63 min
Sep 11, 7:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXCheshire66 min
Sep 11, 7:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCarroll, Coos, Grafton64 min
Sep 11, 7:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVFranklin, St. Lawrence48 min
Sep 11, 8:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCarroll, Grafton, Sullivan67 min
Sep 11, 8:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXAndroscoggin, Kennebec, Lincoln, Sagadahoc47 min
Sep 11, 8:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVAddison, Orange, Rutland, Washington, Windsor46 min
Sep 11, 8:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXKennebec, Knox, Lincoln, Waldo54 min
Sep 11, 8:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVSt. Lawrence54 min
Sep 11, 8:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCumberland48 min
Sep 11, 9:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXBelknap, Carroll, Coos, Grafton, Merrimack57 min
Sep 11, 9:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCumberland, Oxford, York37 min
Sep 11, 9:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXBelknap, Carroll, Merrimack, Rockingham, Strafford53 min
Sep 11, 9:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Oxford, York45 min
Sep 11, 9:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Lincoln, Sagadahoc57 min
Sep 11, 10:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Kennebec, Oxford, Sagadahoc, York56 min
Sep 11, 10:51 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBTVSt. Lawrence4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2013-09-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1310 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2013-09-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 49 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1310 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-231 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
970 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
139 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

525 
WWUS20 KWNS 111833
SEL1  
SPC WW 111833
MAZ000-MEZ000-NHZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-120200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
  NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE
  NEW HAMPSHIRE
  EASTERN NEW YORK
  VERMONT

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM
  UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY NEW YORK TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HOULTON MAINE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 520...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  WHILE
A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL
MAINE...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 11, 1:30 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, Penobscot and 3 more60 min
Sep 11, 6:54 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndroscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Kennebec, Oxford, Penobscot and 3 more96 min
Sep 11, 11:42 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 20 more63 min
Sep 11, 12:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 22 more8 hr
Sep 11, 2:47 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 16 more58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2013Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maine, 2013Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Vermont, 2013Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.