Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
547 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING STORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTN AND EVENING. STORMS
AFFECTING ADKS...ACROSS THE CPV AND INTO CENTRAL VT AND THE NEK
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC TROUGH...MOVING EAST AND PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND PSBLY SMALL HAIL. 2ND AREA OF
STORMS OVER SERN ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC...NEAR THE QUASI-
STATIONARY WARM FRONT. THE NRN BATCH OF STORMS WILL MEANDER
AROUND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EXPECT STORMS TO LOSE
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING ALSO SETTING IN.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 521 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY UNTIL 10PM TONIGHT. GOING FORECAST OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON TRACK.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE NW AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS PRECIP...CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA WITH CONTINUE S/SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS MILD AND DEWPTS MOIST
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT
THE SFC THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT INTO THE WARM
MOIST AIR. DEWPTS IN THE 60S WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
WILL STILL FEEL WARM AND MUGGY.

SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY OVER VT...COULD
STILL SEE THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. PWATS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 2 INCHES...INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOWING CORFIDI VECTORS STILL
SUPPORT PSBL TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF FORECAST AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
STORMS OR WITH TRAINING CELLS.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DECREASE...WITH THE FRONT EXITING SERN VT BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NW FLOW WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS MOST OF THE
DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT E FRIDAY NIGHT...FURTHER
DIMINISHING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER...IN THE U40S-U50S AND
NOT MUCH WARMER FOR FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING
SHOWERS KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE M50S-M60S. FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
SHOWERS END AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE...925MB TEMPS WILL COOL
TO AROUND 5C...WITH SFC MIN TEMPS IN THE M30S-M40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
HAVE BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
PREVIOUS 2 DAYS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS
THE BTV CWA ON SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL KEEP
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND THOUGH MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT AND MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT PROGGED
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY WEAK SO THINKING PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY IN
NATURE WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF. OF MORE INTEREST THOUGH...AT
LEAST FOR WINTER LOVERS LIKE ME IS THE PROGGED 850MB TEMPS
FALLING TO ZERO TO -2C MIDDAY MONDAY. COULD WE SEE OUR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES AT THE SUMMITS? STAY TUNED. FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL...JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING... BRIEFLY REDUCING CIGS/VSBY TO IFR/MVFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HARD TO PINPOINT TSRA AT ANY TERMINAL AT
THIS TIME SO HAVE JUST INCLUDE VCTS FOR NOW THROUGH 06Z. BRIEF
BREAK IN WX FROM 06Z-09Z WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR BR LIKELY...BEFORE
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST SPREADING MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN FROM KMSS AT 09Z TO KBTV BY 12Z. MVFR RAIN
THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
PERIOD OF IFR VSBY POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONTAL PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTS TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR
RAIN SHOWERS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 546 PM EDT...A COUPLE OF RECORDS WERE BROKEN TODAY...

RECORD HIGHS:

AT MASSENA NEW YORK(MSS)...TODAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 88F
BROKE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87F SET IN 1961.

RECORD HIGH MINS:

AT BURLINGTON VERMONT(BTV)...TODAYS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 75F
BROKE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 70F SET IN
1947...1925 AND 1922.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 438 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM
44...BROADCASTING FROM THE TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY
VERMONT...REMAINS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A DAMAGED ANTENNA.
REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND THE REPAIR WORK HAS BEEN
SCHEDULED FOR SEPTEMBER 17-20.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RJS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...MUCCILLI/KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
241 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-121845-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
241 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FOR THIS EVENT THERE
WILL BE TWO DIFFERENT THREATS FOR STORMS. THE FIRST WILL BE OUT
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK WHERE A LINE OF STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO FOR OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO PROVINCE AND MOVE INTO THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS LINE WOULD BE STRONG WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE STORMS FORMING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST
AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE OF
SHORTER DURATION AND MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 500 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

VTZ007-008-010-012-112315-
CALEDONIA VT-ORANGE VT-WASHINGTON VT-WINDSOR VT-
631 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
WINDSOR...ORANGE...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN CALEDONIA
COUNTIES...

AT 624 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
NORTHFIELD FALLS TO RANDOLPH...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
BARRE...EAST MONTPELIER...PLAINFIELD...SOUTH VERSHIRE...WEST
GROTON...GROTON...EAST RYEGATE...RYEGATE...WELLS RIVER...NEWBURY...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4402 7207 4400 7210 4396 7209 4389 7216
      4379 7220 4380 7271 4429 7274 4427 7206
      4425 7204 4418 7205 4415 7203 4411 7205
      4409 7202

LAHIFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HIGHGATE SPRINGS        44.98N  73.11W
09/11/2013                   FRANKLIN           VT   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN. ALSO PONTOON BOAT FLIPPED OVER AND BOAT
            DOCK DAMAGED IN MISSISQUOI BAY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1300349

NASH

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