Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013
Mesoscale Discussion 1613
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 3, 2013, 1:50 PM MDT for 14 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 85 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 3, 2013, 1:50 PM MDT (19:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 3, 2013, 3:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 85 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO
The radar
The Denver radar (KFTG), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 35 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 46 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -295 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2189 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
834
ACUS11 KWNS 031950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031950
KSZ000-COZ000-032115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031950Z - 032115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION...AT 1945 UTC THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE COUPLED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 25-35 KTS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS
AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY /0-3KM CAPE
VALUES NEARING 200 J/KG/ COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
NON-SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO. AT THIS TIME...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
..MARSH/GOSS.. 08/03/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40710445 40960340 40920250 40150211 39450195 38770268
38920486 40350513 40710445SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 1:06 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, Huerfano, Kiowa, Las Animas and 3 more | 84 min |
| Aug 3, 2:35 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Cheyenne, Denver and 11 more | 6 hr |
| Aug 3, 2:40 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Crowley, El Paso, Kiowa, Las Animas and 4 more | 7 hr |
| Aug 3, 5:21 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Elbert, Lincoln and 3 more | 54 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.