Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
303 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST MC CURTAIN
COUNTY OKLAHOMA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT....WITH SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE ALL AREAS...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A COOL NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES AS A NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH ERODES THE RIDGE. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE A CHANCE
OF RAIN THURSDAY TROUGH SATURDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF RED RIVER VALLEY...AND
EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN AR. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ISOLD PREFRONTAL SHOWERS. TSTMS IN VCNTY OF
KTXK AND KELD...AND SHRA IN VCNTY OF KMLU THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REACH KTYR...KGGG AND KSHV BY AROUND 02/00Z. IN THE
MEANTIME..SCT CU WITH SOME ALTOCU DECKS...AND S-SW WINDS AROUND 10
KTS. POST FRONTAL WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECMG
NORTH AROUND 10 KTS ON SUNDAY.  AFTER PCPN TAPERS OFF LATER
TONIGHT...WET GROUND MAY INDUCE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 02/15Z./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  84  63  87  64 /  80  10  10   0   0
MLU  69  84  63  85  61 /  80  30  10   0   0
DEQ  60  82  56  83  60 /  40  10   0   0  10
TXK  64  82  58  84  61 /  60  10   0   0   0
ELD  65  83  61  83  60 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  66  84  62  85  65 /  50  10  10   0   0
GGG  65  84  59  86  64 /  60  10  10   0   0
LFK  72  87  62  89  64 /  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-021100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS EXPERIENCING
THE MAJORITY OF STORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ARZ071>073-020100-
COLUMBIA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE...
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
     UNION...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ATLANTA...BUSSEY...CALION...EL DORADO...EMERSON...LAWSON...
     LISBON...MACEDONIA...MAGNOLIA...MOUNT HOLLY...NORPHLET...
     SMACKOVER...SMITHLAND...TAYLOR...URBANA...VILLAGE AND WESSON...

AT 651 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LISBON...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SMACKOVER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF MAGNOLIA...AND WAS ALSO MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH BOTH
OF THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ARZ072-073-LAZ004>006-020130-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-LINCOLN-UNION-
734 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES AND PARISHES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     COLUMBIA...
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
     UNION...
IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
     UNION AND LINCOLN...
IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     CLAIBORNE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ATLANTA...JUNCTION CITY...BERNICE...FARMERVILLE AND
     HAYNESVILLE...

AT 729 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAYNESVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTH
OF HOMER...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY...AND WERE MOVING INTO THE
FARMERVILLE AND RUSTON AREAS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

VII

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