Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A JACKSONVILLE TEXAS TO SOUTH
SHREVEPORT TO MONROE LOUISIANA LINE. CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE
20 FROM SHREVEPORT TO MONROE. THIS CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
EXPECTING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIEST CONVECTION SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING THE
REGION AROUND DAYBREAK. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
OUR COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM KTYR...TO S OF KSHV...ALONG I-20 TO
NEAR KMLU. SCT/NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS HOLDING THEIR OWN AFTER SUNSET
WITH A SHORT WAVE PUSH IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER I-30 NOW. POST
FRONTAL RAINS WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD MOST TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT
WHILE OUR SFC WINDS BECMG NORTH AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER PCPN...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER UNTIL THE DRIER
AIR DEEPENS...AND WET GROUND MAY INDUCE PATCHY AREAS OF BR/FG IN
ANY AREAS SHELTERED FROM THE DRYING WINDS. WE SHOULD SEE ANY
ISSUES RESUME VFR BY 02/15Z. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST MC CURTAIN
COUNTY OKLAHOMA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT....WITH SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SEVERE WEATHER STILL POSSIBLE ALL AREAS...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A COOL NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES AS A NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH ERODES THE RIDGE. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE A CHANCE
OF RAIN THURSDAY TROUGH SATURDAY AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST SOUTH OF RED RIVER VALLEY...AND
EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN AR. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ISOLD PREFRONTAL SHOWERS. TSTMS IN VCNTY OF
KTXK AND KELD...AND SHRA IN VCNTY OF KMLU THIS AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REACH KTYR...KGGG AND KSHV BY AROUND 02/00Z. IN THE
MEANTIME..SCT CU WITH SOME ALTOCU DECKS...AND S-SW WINDS AROUND 10
KTS. POST FRONTAL WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECMG
NORTH AROUND 10 KTS ON SUNDAY.  AFTER PCPN TAPERS OFF LATER
TONIGHT...WET GROUND MAY INDUCE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 02/15Z./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  84  63  87  64 /  80  10  10   0   0
MLU  69  84  63  85  61 /  80  30  10   0   0
DEQ  60  82  56  83  60 /  40  10   0   0  10
TXK  64  82  58  84  61 /  60  10   0   0   0
ELD  66  83  61  83  60 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  66  84  62  85  65 /  60  10  10   0   0
GGG  65  84  59  86  64 /  60  10  10   0   0
LFK  72  87  62  89  64 /  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-021100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. MOST OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS EXPERIENCING
THE MAJORITY OF STORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
920 PM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE DUBACH             32.68N  92.63W
06/01/2013                   LINCOLN            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN 2 MILES SE OF TOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1300212

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
922 PM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W DUBACH              32.70N  92.67W
06/01/2013                   LINCOLN            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN 1W OF TOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1300213

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 PM CDT SAT JUN 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FARMERVILLE             32.77N  92.40W
06/01/2013                   UNION              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE PARISH

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1300214

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

LAZ001>005-010>013-020345-
BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-CADDO-CLAIBORNE-DE SOTO-JACKSON-LINCOLN-RED
RIVER-WEBSTER-
945 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     RED RIVER...DE SOTO...CLAIBORNE...CADDO...BOSSIER...BIENVILLE
     AND WEBSTER...
IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
     LINCOLN AND JACKSON...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ARCADIA...DIXIE INN...DOYLINE...DUBBERLY...GIBSLAND...
     GRAMBLING...HAUGHTON...HEFLIN...MINDEN...RINGGOLD...RUSTON...
     SIBLEY AND STONEWALL...

AT 941 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HOMER TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF GREENWOOD...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOMER TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SHREVEPORT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ENTIRE LINE OF DEVELOPING STORMS....IN ADDITION TO VERY FREQUENT
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES!!

VII

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