Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Springfield, MO

572 
WWUS53 KSGF 202329
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOC015-185-202339-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-130520T2345Z/
BENTON MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
629 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ST. CLAIR AND EXTREME
WEST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3807 9350 3803 9406 3809 9407 3821 9406
      3822 9405 3821 9357 3822 9356 3821 9353
      3840 9352 3840 9350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 253DEG 46KT 3825 9361

$$

GRIFFIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE INGREDIENTS NECESSARY FOR AN EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE COMING TOGETHER OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.

DATA UP TO 400MB FROM AN 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING HAS BEEN
ANALYZED...AND CONFIRMS THAT THE OZARKS AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.

ZERO CAPE BELOW 3 KM WAS MEASURED ON THE SPECIAL SOUNDING...BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE WITH TIME...AS PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS PARTIAL CLEARING CAN BE SEEN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. OBSERVATIONS AROUND
TULSA SHOWED TEMPERATURES SPIKING INTO THE LOWER 80S ONCE THIS
CLEARING TOOK PLACE. GOOD LOW LEVEL CAPE WOULD EVOLVE IF
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI CAN WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S.

BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED A CRITICAL ANGLE OF
AROUND 75 TO 80 DEGREES. IF SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK MORE TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST...THIS WOULD CREATE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
STREAM WISE VORTICITY INTO FUTURE UPDRAFTS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

WITH DECENT NORMALIZED CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFT.
ANY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH.

ITS GOING TO BE A BUSY AFTERNOON / EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI DOWN TO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE RESULTING IN THESE
STORMS BEING SUPERCELLAUR IN NATURE.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE AREA ALL AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S. THE CLEARING LINE IS
SURGING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY
JUMPING INTO THE 80S ONCE BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE. THE CLEARING LINE
WILL SURGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S. EXPECT THE STORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO
TRACK NORTHEAST. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL SEEMS TO GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTICES TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BOW SECTIONS
IN ANY LINE OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MODELS SHOW A BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT COULD SEE ROUND OF STORMS TRACK
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA WILL BE WORKED
OVER FROM TODAY AND TONIGHTS STORMS AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON
MAY 20 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FINALLY KICK OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD COVER AND EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWER OR STORMS
MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BETTER POTENTIAL IS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
INTO OF STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...CRAMER
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
415 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-212115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
415 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
  KANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
  CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL
  FOR LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HEN EGGS.

  CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
  AFTERNOON...BUT ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. AREAS THAT CAN
  CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
  INTERSTATE 44 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WILL HAVE THE BEST TORNADO
  RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THERE IS THE
  POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO AGAIN IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND
  TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S.

  A LINE OF STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AND
  OKLAHOMA AND SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
  OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WOULD BE
  POSSIBLE WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR
  TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO STRONG
  LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

  IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
  HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNT FROM ONE TO
  TWO INCHES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WILL LINGER
  INTO TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THE PRIMARY
  CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
  HEAVY RAINFALL .

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO
  THE WEEKEND BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
  EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND FOR ALL OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
429 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             ELDRIDGE                37.83N 92.75W
05/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
509 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             IBERIA                  38.09N 92.29W
05/20/2013  M1.50 INCH       MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
529 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             3 E MCCUNE              37.35N 94.96W
05/20/2013  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             2 N VIENNA              38.22N 91.95W
05/20/2013  E1.50 INCH       MARIES             MO   PUBLIC

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             BELLE                   38.29N 91.72W
05/20/2013  E1.75 INCH       MARIES             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RELAYED BY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND GST     PITTSBURG               37.41N 94.70W
05/20/2013  E75 MPH          CRAWFORD           KS   STORM CHASER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

DGAEDE