Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Springfield, MO

388 
WWUS53 KSGF 200356
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1056 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MOC185-200415-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-130520T0415Z/
ST. CLAIR MO-
1056 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ST.
CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1052 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A 
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF LOWRY CITY...MOVING EAST AT 
50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
APPLETON CITY...ICONIUM...JOHNSON CITY AND LOWRY CITY.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES TRUMAN LAKE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3821 9352 3820 9349 3807 9350 3804 9407
      3822 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 261DEG 45KT 3823 9376 3806 9379

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GAGAN

396 
WWUS53 KSGF 200402
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MOC185-200412-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-130520T0415Z/
ST. CLAIR MO-
1102 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3821 9352 3820 9349 3807 9350 3804 9407
      3822 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 261DEG 45KT 3823 9366 3806 9369

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...UPDATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

RATHER COMPLEX AND MESSY MESOSCALE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT.

LEAD BAND OF CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS FROM VERSAILLES TO BOLIVAR TO
JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD TO CASSVILLE. TO THIS POINT SPARSE
REPORTS INDICATE WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
DIMES WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. PRETTY GOOD LIGHTNING SHOW
THOUGH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES WILL CONTINUE AS THIS
LINE HEADS EAST.

THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE BEHAVIOR OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION HAS REINTENSIFIED OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INCREASING...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS INCREASING LOW LEVEL HELICITY...WITH
0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE.
THE DISCREET CELLS TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE MOST PRONE TO OBSERVING THIS
ACTIVITY (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE NEOSHO TO
OSCEOLA). MLCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THIS
AREA.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...THOUGH REMAIN DIRECTED TOWARD A DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
NEARLY STACKED/PARALLEL THIS WILL RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
AS CELLS WILL CONTINUALLY FIRE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA...THIS IS WHERE THE BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST WILL LIKELY STALL AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPINGE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INCOMING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL BE
HONING IN ON THE PREFERRED AREA FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND
LIKELY SEND OUT A WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS CONTINUE TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLOODING.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND
BECOME ORIENTED PARALLEL WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT MORE
THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEER WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS A JET
STREAK COMES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WILL INCREASE IF SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL
AS TRAINING CELLS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ENHANCED ALONG AND JUST OF THE SAGGING FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

IN ADDITION A RICH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE WILL INTERACT  WITH THE FRONT
TO SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RATES. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST BUT IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS CONTINUE SUGGEST PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS MINOR
DISTURBANCES COME OVER THE RIDGE BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A RISK OF
LIGHTNING AND A ISOLATED RISK FOR WIND/HAIL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS (BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR) ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA RESPECTIVELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. THIS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. THE EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT REMAINS IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER AND PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...JUST NORTH OF THE AERODROMES. WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR JUST EXACTLY WHERE THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL SET UP AND FURTHER FORECAST REFINEMENTS ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION TO THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS...ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT ALL SITES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210315-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
  OVERNIGHT.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.

  THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
  STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF HALF DOLLARS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

  HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS MAY LEAD TO
  LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
  BRANSON TO FORT LEONARD WOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WILL AGAIN OCCUR FROM
  MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND IMPACT THE
  ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
  WEATHER MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS WELL.

  ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO
  EARLY TUESDAY INCLUDING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND TORNADOES.

  IN ADDITION...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
  HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT
  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT FROM EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
738 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
05/19/2013  E0.50 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
741 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
05/19/2013  E0.75 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
802 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             SARCOXIE                37.07N 94.12W
05/19/2013  E0.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE ALSO REPORTED DOWN IN.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORT SCOTT              37.84N 94.71W
05/19/2013  E60 MPH          BOURBON            KS   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1032 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORT SCOTT              37.84N 94.71W
05/19/2013                   BOURBON            KS   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS FRANKLIN STREET IN FORT SCOTT.
            NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED ONE MILE SOUTHEAST OF
            TOWN.

&&

JCOLUCCI