Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Springfield, MO

361 
WWUS53 KSGF 102204
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
504 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

MOC229-102214-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-130410T2230Z/
WRIGHT MO-
504 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WRIGHT COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3707 9261 3748 9254 3748 9225 3722 9225
      3707 9234 3706 9235 3706 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 199DEG 47KT 3738 9235

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
339 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THE INITIAL COLD FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAD STALLED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST
OF BRANSON TO JUST EAST OF ROLLA. TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN TO NEAR
80 DEGREES ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHILE READINGS WERE
IN THE 40S NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS BORDER. PRECIPITATION REMAINED
WIDESPREAD FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BEHIND THE
SECONDARY OR TRUE COLD FRONT.

THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI OR GENERALLY
EAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO SALEM LINE CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

MIXED LAYER CAPE WAS ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH LOW LEVEL
CAPE DEPICTED BY RUC ANALYSIS BETWEEN 50 AND 100 J/KG. THE 18Z
SOUNDING FROM LITTLE ROCK DEPICTED A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT.

ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITIES CURRENTLY RANGED UP TO 100 M2/S2 BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED BACKING WINDS. ALSO EXPECT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITIES TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING NORTH FROM ARKANSAS.

WITH THAT SAID THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS INCREASED INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND TRAINING
OF CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS...LOCAL MEDIA...AND SPOTTERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND STAYED
TUNED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS EVENING AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY EAST. A BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW AND AN UPPER JET STREAK COMING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ENHANCE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. GIVEN THE TRAINING NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES
EAST. THE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO FROST...AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THE COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND POSSIBLY UPPER
20S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH
MAY PREVENT MAXIMIZING RADIATION AL COOLING.

MORE SPRING LIKE WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH A
MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...FOSTER/WISE
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...KARDELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
418 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-112130-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
418 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FREEZE RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI GENERALLY EAST OF A BRANSON TO ROLLA LINE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND LOCALIZED
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. THERE IS A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
  TORNADOES.

  THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS
  INCREASED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
  TO INCREASE THROUGH 8 PM.

  RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
  PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

  IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
  INCHES WILL OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS
  TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN
  FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER FLOOD
  PRONE AREAS.

  LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTER KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES TO
  DIP TO NEAR FREEZING BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
  TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.

  SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY
  ...AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
  EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...OR GENERALLY EAST OF A
  BRANSON TO ROLLA LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
350 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             NEWBURG                 37.91N 91.90W
04/10/2013  M1.25 INCH       PHELPS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEWBURG POLICE DEPT REPORTED MOSTLY PENNY SIZE WITH A FEW
            UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
412 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             PROTEM                  36.53N 92.86W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

&&

MGRIFFIN