Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Springfield, MO

March 30, 2013Newton County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 30, 2013, 8:11 PM CDT for Newton County, Missouri. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 30, 2013, 8:11 PM CDT (01:11 UTC)
Expired: Mar 30, 2013, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Newton County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 30, 2:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 48 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 453 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -50 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1112 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 139 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 30, 6:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 30, 6:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM BBG-JLN-CNU. STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS
NORTHEAST OF JOPLIN AT THIS TIME. MLCAPES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE
ROUGHLY IN THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
AROUND 40 KTS. THE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT HAS HAD
TIME TO RECOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY.

WHILE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS ARE MARGINAL...THOSE THAT CAN
ATTAIN SUPERCELL STATUS WILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
WILL MOVE IN A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

GAEDE

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. PORTIONS OF THE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION ISSUED EARLIER WERE INCLUDED BELOW AS IT IS STILL
VALID. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ONCE WE GET BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD...THE
MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION (LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING)...

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS DIABATIC HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH THE 00Z TIME FRAME. AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THIS
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE...AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING (AT LEAST
INITIALLY)...SUPERCELLS MAY VERY WELL BE THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE
MODE...THOUGH SOME LESS ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ARE ALSO NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS COLD POOL CONGLOMERATION TAKES PLACE AND
LINEAR FORCING INCREASES...AN EVENTUAL MERGER OF CONVECTION INTO
AN MCS SEEMS PROBABLE. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA/FT SCOTT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BRANSON AND CASSVILLE.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS...WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS WILL HAVE A SIMILAR LIMITING
AFFECT ON DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.

BOXELL/SCHAUMANN

LATER TONIGHT...

FOG MAY THEN DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE SREF...RAW MODEL
OUTPUT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PAINTING THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. RECENT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO INCREASED THE PROBABILITIES UP TOWARDS THE ROLLA
AREA. WE GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

EASTER...

DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES TO OUR WEST. MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ALL
AREAS WARMING INTO THE 60S. WE KNOCKED DOWN EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU.
NEVERTHELESS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE OR
UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MODELS HAVE THROWN A CURVE BALL REGARDING THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THE
EXPECTED COLD FRONT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FIRST
OFF...THEY HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON QPF WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH A LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS IS SOMEWHAT
BELIEVABLE FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. MODELS
ARE PINGING MORE ON A FRONTOGENETIC LAYER IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI FROM LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

THE OTHER BIG CHANGE IS MODELS COMING IN MUCH WARMER FOR
TEMPERATURES MONDAY. NEARLY EVERY MODEL DEPICTS MUCH WARMER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS. WHILE WE WERE NOT QUITE READY TO
BUY INTO SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE...WE DID BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A
CATEGORY OR TWO. WITH THAT BEING SAID...WE HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON
ANY SNOW POTENTIAL AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO CENTRAL MISSOURI. EVEN
UP IN THAT REGION...SNOW POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL NOT ACCUMULATE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

GLOBAL MODELS HOLD ONTO THIS FRONTOGENETIC ZONE IN CLOSE ENOUGH
PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO MAINTAIN LOW POPS. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES HANG ON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WE WOULD HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH
CALL AS WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF A SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO LIKELY COME INTO PLAY. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
GONE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

GLOBAL MODELS BRING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...WE FEEL
THAT THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...OR EVEN MORE LIKELY ACROSS ARKANSAS. WE HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART.
WE ALSO FEEL THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIQUID IN NATURE.

LATE NEXT WEEK...

GLOBAL MODELS BRING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS FOR KSGF/KJLN/KBBG...CONVECTION ONGOING AT THIS
TIME ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A BBG-JLN-CNU
LINE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TRACK
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SAID...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TSRA AT
JLN AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...COULD SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KSGF AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS AT KBBG IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

GAEDE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 30, 3:08 PM CDT, 5 hours 3 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-312015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
308 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FOG RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...SPREADING EAST INTO FAR WESTERN AND
  SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. ENOUGH
  INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS
  THE I-49 CORRIDOR. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND A FEW
  STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
  THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS
  SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS
  ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
  MISSOURI. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY THEN BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
  REMAINDER OF WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL/SCHAUMANN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 30, 7:16 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             CRESTLINE               37.17N 94.70W
03/30/2013  M1.25 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KARDELL

Local storm report, Mar 30, 7:30 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
730 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     HAIL             2 NNW IRON GATES        37.09N 94.57W
03/30/2013  U1.50 INCH       JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KARDELL

Local storm report, Mar 30, 7:39 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
739 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             3 S AURORA              36.93N 93.72W
03/30/2013  U0.88 INCH       LAWRENCE           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KARDELL

Local storm report, Mar 30, 7:52 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
752 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             REDINGS MILL            37.02N 94.52W
03/30/2013  U0.75 INCH       NEWTON             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

KARDELL

Special weather statement, Mar 30, 7:52 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
752 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

MOZ103-310115-
STONE MO-
752 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN STONE COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

AT 751 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELSEY...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF KIMBERLING
CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3662 9357 3673 9358 3682 9357 3682 9359
      3684 9360 3697 9358 3676 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 301DEG 28KT 3682 9351

DSA

Special weather statement, Mar 30, 8:01 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
801 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

MOZ093-310145-
NEWTON MO-
801 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEOSHO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3688 9452 3703 9441 3690 9407 3675 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 298DEG 23KT 3692 9441

DSA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 30, 7:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry, Lawrence	53 min
Mar 30, 7:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Stone	31 min
Mar 30, 7:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Jasper, Newton	42 min
Mar 30, 7:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Stone	23 min
Mar 30, 7:55 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SGF	Barton	16 hr
Mar 30, 8:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Newton	44 min
Mar 30, 8:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	McDonald	38 min
Mar 30, 8:40 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	SGF	Vernon	4 days
Mar 30, 8:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Barry	33 min
Mar 31, 4:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Dallas	37 min
Mar 31, 5:07 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Dallas	23 min
Mar 31, 5:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Webster	48 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2013 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.