Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
605 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2013

...Update to Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued AT 605 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

Convection continues to evolve across the region this morning. The
low level jet continues to veer and moisture transport is now
squarely focused on the eastern Ozarks. The line of storms that
has raced across the area this morning has perked back up in
intensity. This line had been outflow dominate for several hours
with a few wind gusts to 45 mph here and there. The convection has
reorganized and surged in the past half hour and with the
atmosphere ahead of the line largely pristine with MLCAPE in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range, there is a renewed concern for localized
damaging wind gusts.

This line has begun to merge with the nearly stationary line of
convection across central Missouri that has dumped several inches
of rain in portions of Miller, Maries, Phelps and portions of Dent
counties. Unfortunately this has resulted in rainfall expanding
across Pulaski and Texas counties that were hard hit last night.
Current radar trends and a few of the mesoscale models suggest
that this rainfall will eventually focusing more to the southeast
with time. The greatest risk of severe will be along the Highway
60 corridor for the next couple of hours.

As stated earlier, with a boundary sagging into the region from
the north today will remain unsettled. Showers and storms have
refired in a band from JLN southwestward into northeastern
Oklahoma. In addition rainfall continues further north near the
I-70 corridor. As a result, showers and storms will be possible
much of today, just becoming more scattered in nature as we head
into late this morning and this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

Another round of significant rainfall has set up across portions
of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. To this point the axis
of heaviest rain is just to the northeast of the Waynesville and
Fort Leonard Wood areas that were hit so hard last night. Rainfall
is expected in those hard hit areas as we head toward sunrise. As
the low level jet veers, there will likely be a westward expansion
of rainfall. Will continue closely monitoring the need for further
flash flood warnings as tolerance for additional water is near
zero.

The most grave concern this morning will continue to be in a
corridor extending through Morgan, Miller, Maries, Phelps, Dent
and Shannon counties as well as northeastern portions of Pulaski
and Texas counties. Hourly rainfall rates in persistent areas of
50 dbz or greater continue to be between one and two inches. This
band of rainfall will remain in place through at least sunrise.

To the west, the MCS that originated over Kansas has accelerated
to the east. This system is now outflow dominate over our area
with wind gusts to 40mph expected. Some training of storms has
occurred over Bourbon, KS and Vernon, MO and there will continue
to be a flash flood risk in these areas.

Through sunrise, the linear complex will continue to surge to the
east northeast and affect areas mainly along/north of the Highway
60 corridor. Far southern Missouri will likely miss out for a
while. Much like yesterday morning, the nearly stationary band
over central Missouri will gradually weaken and shift to the
southeast with time. The back edge of precipitation will move from
west to east. Unlike yesterday, the remainder of today looks to be
unsettled. A boundary will sag into the area from the north and
act as a focusing mechanism for additional development this
afternoon as heating leads to destabilization. Have kept solid
chance PoPs most of the day and allow mesoscale trends to dictate
where higher chances will be needed.

Heading into tonight, you guessed it, yet ANOTHER round of
thunderstorms will affect the region. Initiation of an MCS over
south central Kansas and northern Oklahoma is expected during the
evening hours. This will spread eastward as a forward propagating,
linear system, entering the area overnight tonight. We should see
instability recharge enough to keep 3000 J/kg MUCAPE over at least
the southwestern portions of the area. As a result, we should see
a slightly better risk of damaging winds making it into extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri. Training storms will
be possible again tonight, and as a result the flash flood risk
remains elevated to significant.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

This wet pattern looks to hold in place at least through Friday
night. On Thursday, widespread rain/thunderstorms look to be
ongoing first thing in the morning. With a quasi stationary
boundary over the area and the potential for destabilization out
ahead of the convective complex, there is a conditional severe
risk for damaging winds. Yet another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected Thursday night as the low level boundary
remains entrenched across the region. If the airmass south of the
quasi stationary boundary can destabilize enough, the will be a
risk for a few severe storms. As has been the case, pin pointing the
exact axis of heavy rainfall will be a mesoscale challenge, but
the risk for heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding
remains high. Given good agreement with the models for Thursday
night, will go ahead and extend the Flash Flood Watch through 7 AM
Friday.

Medium range models continue to give us a glimmer of hope in
breaking this pattern during the upcoming weekend and maybe into
even early next week. The upper flow amplifies and the frontal
boundary/battle zone is shunted to our southwest. Have trended
PoPs downward. If this pattern shift can occur, temperatures will
also be below average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

Forecast for the area remains complex. Conditions across the
region today will be unsettled with pockets of showers and storms
possible just about any time today. Another complex of
thunderstorms will enter the region from the west overnight
tonight bringing another round of heavy rainfall. While there will
be a decent amount of VFR conditions today, any storms will be
capable of producing IFR visibility and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
534 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-081045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
534 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  EXTREME FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
  MORNING. THERE IS A LIMITED RISK OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
  GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OF HIGHEST CONCERN IS THE RISK FOR
  FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
  AND THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHERE A BAND OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL SET
  UP OVERNIGHT. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ONGOING...THIS WILL ONLY
  AGGRAVATE AN ALREADY SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING SITUATION.

  A FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND CONDITIONS
  WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...
  INSTABILITY WILL RECOVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT
  REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
  THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

  TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  ACROSS KANSAS AND MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE
  OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A RISK OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
  GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. OF UTMOST CONCERN WILL BE
  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO A RENEWED RISK FOR FLASH
  FLOODING AREA WIDE.

  WITH SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE REGION...FLASH FLOODING IS
  LIKELY WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AREAS THAT NORMALLY
  DO NOT FLOOD WILL BE AT RISK FOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING FIRST THING
  THURSDAY MORNING. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN REDEVELOP AHEAD OF
  THESE STORMS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...THERE WILL BE A RISK
  FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
  REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT SETTLES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
  THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AND THE RISK FOR
  FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON A
  DAILY BASIS THIS WEEK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
  PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ARE ENCOURAGED TO
  RELAY ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING THAT THREATEN LIFE OR PROPERTY
  TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
458 AM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W VIENNA              38.19N 92.00W
08/07/2013                   MARIES             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 42 IMPASSABLE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY T.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VIENNA                  38.19N 91.95W
08/07/2013                   MARIES             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADWAYS UNDER WATER AND IMPASSABLE THROUGHOUT
            THE COUNTY. ONE RESIDENCE WAS EVACUATED FROM THEIR HOME
            ON COUNTY ROAD 213 ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

MGRIFFIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
534 AM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 SW VIENNA             38.10N 92.05W
08/07/2013                   MARIES             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY N CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

AFOSTER

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