Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Springfield, MO

621 
WGUS73 KSGF 070721
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

MOC125-131-161-169-071300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-130807T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARIES MO-MILLER MO-PHELPS MO-PULASKI MO-
221 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
MARIES...MILLER...NORTHERN PULASKI AND PHELPS COUNTIES...

AT 211 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLOODING OF 
SEVERAL ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN THE ROLLA AREA. RADAR 
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM EASTERN MILLER 
ACROSS WESTERN MARIES INTO NORTHERN PHELPS COUNTY SINCE MIDNIGHT. 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. 

DANGEROUS FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS INCLUDING THE CITY OF 
ROLLA. 

RAPID WATER LEVEL RISES AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE MARIES RIVER 
IN MARIES COUNTY. PERSONS ALONG THE MARIES RIVER SHOULD SEEK HIGHER 
GROUND.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE HH IN TUSCUMBIA...
ROUTE N AT THE MARIES RIVER EAST OF BRINKTOWN...
HIGHWAY 8 FIVE MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT JAMES...
ROUTE O AT JONES CREEK JUST SOUTH OF DIXON...
ROUTE Y NORTHWEST OF ROLLA.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9220 3830 9218
      3830 9165 3816 9164 3815 9151 3779 9152
      3779 9180 3770 9181 3799 9241 3802 9241
      3802 9251 3817 9260 3817 9264 3821 9264
      3822 9270 3834 9269 3835 9264 3843 9263

$$

FOSTER

515 
WGUS73 KSGF 070752
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

MOC125-131-161-169-071300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-130807T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARIES MO-MILLER MO-PHELPS MO-PULASKI MO-
252 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
MARIES...MILLER...NORTHERN PULASKI AND PHELPS COUNTIES...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE TOWN OF NEWBURG ON THE LITTLE 
PINEY RIVER IN NORTHERN PHELPS COUNTY...

AT 245 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT 
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING 
IN THE TOWN OF NEWBURG ON THE LITTLE PINEY RIVER WHICH HAS RISEN 
FOUR FEET IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. ADDITIONAL DRAMATIC RISES UP TO 
FIVE AND A HALF FEET ARE EXPECTED. 

ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF MANY ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE 
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA OVERNIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NUMEROUS HOMES AND BUSINESSES WHERE PEOPLE WHO ARE ORDINARILY IN SAFE
LOCATIONS DURING PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD EVENTS ARE NOW IN A 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD SITUATION. EVACUATIONS OF HOMES ARE 
ONGOING IN NEWBURG.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9220 3830 9218
      3830 9165 3816 9164 3815 9151 3779 9152
      3779 9180 3770 9181 3799 9241 3802 9241
      3802 9251 3817 9260 3817 9264 3821 9264
      3822 9270 3834 9269 3835 9264 3843 9263

$$

FOSTER

038 
WGUS73 KSGF 071004
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
504 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

MOC125-131-161-169-071300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-130807T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARIES MO-MILLER MO-PHELPS MO-PULASKI MO-
504 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
MARIES...MILLER...NORTHERN PULASKI AND PHELPS COUNTIES...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE TOWN OF NEWBURG ON THE LITTLE 
PINEY RIVER IN NORTHERN PHELPS COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF 
EASTERN MILLER AND WESTERN MARIES COUNTIES FROM THE ST ELIZABETH 
AREA TO BRINKTOWN WHERE RADAR INDICATES OVER 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS 
HAS OCCURRED...

AT 450 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
VERY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN AN AREA FROM NEAR AND WEST 
OF TUSCUMBIA EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BRINKTOWN AND ROLLA 
AREAS. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN 
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 9 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE OCCURRED IN 
THIS AREA. 

REPORTS FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INDICATE THAT WATER RESCUES ARE 
OCCURRING IN THE FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY AREAS. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE HH IN TUSCUMBIA...
ROUTE N AT THE MARIES RIVER EAST OF BRINKTOWN...
HIGHWAY 8 FIVE MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT JAMES...
ROUTE O AT JONES CREEK JUST SOUTH OF DIXON...
ROUTE Y NORTHWEST OF ROLLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD 
RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER 
COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS 
A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.


&&

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9220 3830 9218
      3830 9165 3816 9164 3815 9151 3779 9152
      3779 9180 3770 9181 3799 9241 3802 9241
      3802 9251 3817 9260 3817 9264 3821 9264
      3822 9270 3834 9269 3835 9264 3843 9263

$$

DSA

048 
WGUS73 KSGF 071031
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

MOC125-131-161-169-071300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-130807T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARIES MO-MILLER MO-PHELPS MO-PULASKI MO-
531 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
MARIES...MILLER...NORTHERN PULASKI AND PHELPS COUNTIES...

A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR AN AREA OVER EASTERN MILLER MUCH OF 
WESTERN MARIES...WESTERN PHELPS COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES AN AREA FROM 
TUSCUMBIA EAST TO THE VIENNA AREA...THEN AREAS FROM BRINKTOWN SOUTH 
TO THE NEWBURG AREA. RADAR INDICATES THAT 7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL 
HAVE OCCURRED IN THESE AREAS. WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN 
THE EMERGENCY AREA. 

AT 520 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF MILLER COUNTY MOVING EAST AT 
25 MPH. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE 
IN THE WARNING AND FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY AREA. 

IN THE ROLLA AREA...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INDICATES THAT SOME CARS 
HAVE BEEN STRANDED BY HIGH WATER AS WELL. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE HH IN TUSCUMBIA...
ROUTE N AT THE MARIES RIVER EAST OF BRINKTOWN...
HIGHWAY 8 FIVE MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT JAMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

MULTIPLE SWIFT WATER RESCUE TEAMS HAVE BEEN OR ARE BEING DEPLOYED IN
RESPONSE TO EXTREME FLASH FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9220 3830 9218
      3830 9165 3816 9164 3815 9151 3779 9152
      3779 9180 3770 9181 3799 9241 3802 9241
      3802 9251 3817 9260 3817 9264 3821 9264
      3822 9270 3834 9269 3835 9264 3843 9263

$$

DSA

111 
WGUS73 KSGF 071135
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

MOC125-131-161-169-071300-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0087.000000T0000Z-130807T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARIES MO-MILLER MO-PHELPS MO-PULASKI MO-
635 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
MARIES...MILLER...NORTHERN PULASKI AND PHELPS COUNTIES...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF 
MILLER...MARIES...AND PHELPS COUNTIES FROM THE TUSCUMBIA AREA EAST 
TO VIENNA...AND INTO WESTERN PHELPS COUNTY INCLUDING THE NEWBURG 
AREA...

...MODOT IS SHUTTING DOWN INTERSTATE 44 AT MILE MARKER 172 NEAR THE 
PHELPS AND PULASKI COUNTY LINE.... 

AT 621 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES 
THAT 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN PARTS OF THE WARNING 
AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE FLOOD EMERGENCY AREA. 

REPORTS FROM DISPATCH AND LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE NUMEROUS WATER 
RESCUES. SOME HOMES HAVE BEEN FLOODED IN MILLER COUNTY. 

AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE 
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PHELPS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 
HOUR. 

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN 
BE DEADLY IF IN LOW LYING AREAS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED MOVE TO 
HIGHER GROUND. 

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE HH IN TUSCUMBIA...
ROUTE N AT THE MARIES RIVER EAST OF BRINKTOWN...
HIGHWAY 8 FIVE MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT JAMES...
ROUTE O AT JONES CREEK JUST SOUTH OF DIXON...
ROUTE Y NORTHWEST OF ROLLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

MULTIPLE SWIFT WATER RESCUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. DON'T DRIVE INTO 
FLOODED AREAS!

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9220 3830 9218
      3830 9165 3816 9164 3815 9151 3779 9152
      3779 9180 3770 9181 3799 9241 3802 9241
      3802 9251 3817 9260 3817 9264 3821 9264
      3822 9270 3834 9269 3835 9264 3843 9263

$$

DSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2013

...MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WAY...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued AT 1153 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

Forecast updated to account for the latest observation/radar and
mesoscale model trends. Will be watching three area for
thunderstorm development.

The first is just now starting to show its cards across portions
of central Missouri. There is a well defined low level theta-e
gradient that extends from the Lake of the Ozarks region
southeastward toward Licking. This is JUST east of the area that
received torrential rains and significant flash flooding last
night. Mesoscale models indicate that showers and storms will
continue to expand on the east side of this theta-e gradient as
the low level jet increases over the next few hours. This activity
looks to affect much of Morgan, Miller, Maries, Phelps, Dent and
Shannon counties and at this point mainly the northeastern
portions of Pulaski and Texas counties. And will pose the more
significant risk for flash flooding. It appears the training
storms may set up just to the east of the area of flooding rains
from last night, nevertheless more locally heavy rain in the
hardest hit areas in Pulaski and Texas counties is expected.

The second area of concern is a band of deep convergence that
extends from just southeast of TOP to just north of SGF. As a weak
shortwave approaches from the northwest, expectations are for
thunderstorm development in this band of convergence.

The third area of concern has already developed across south
central Kansas. Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed in
an unstable airmass and are racing to the east at 30-40 mph.

Expectations are that these three areas of activity will eventually
merge over the north half to two thirds of the area as the
overnight hours progress. There is a little bit more of a severe
risk with this activity as opposed to the past few nights. MUCAPE
is in excess of 3000 J/kg with effective deep layer shear values
around 30kt. Localized damaging wind gusts and marginally severe
hail are possible.

It likely goes without saying, but the risk for heavy rainfall and
flash flooding is the most concerning. PW values remain
anomalously high, 850mb dewpoints are in the upper teens and warm
cloud depths continue to hover around 16kft. Judging from the past
five nights worth of heavy rain events, areas of 50+ dBZ will
equate to hourly rainfall rates on the order of 1-2".

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

Confidence is increasing that another round of thunderstorms will
develop late this evening through the overnight hours.  At this
point, the biggest forecast challenge is trying to pinpoint where
exactly development will occur, and how convection will evolve
thereafter.

Early this afternoon, widespread partly to mostly cloudy skies have
continued across the CWA, with occasional light rain showers
occurring. This cloud cover has limited available instability
considerably, and really don't expect to see anything too robust in
terms of convective development through the afternoon hours, with
just light rain showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
continuing.

More significant convective development seems probable after 03Z
tonight.  By that time, a broad 30 KT low level jet will begin to
increase across the region. This will increase lift across two
theta-e gradients within the 925-850MB layer in the vicinity of the
CWA.  The first should be oriented more or less along and just south of
the Missouri River from KC to STL, with a less-defined secondary
axis across the U.S. 63 corridor through the eastern Ozarks.  This
suggests an arc of convection developing from eastern Kansas into
central Missouri, back across the eastern Ozarks. Corfidi vectors
will be oriented to the south to southeast, unfortunately pointing
to at least some potential for training/back building across the
northeastern portions of the CWA.  What locations experience this
will be fully dependent on where convection initially develops later
this evening.

Where convection does develop and move overhead, torrential rainfall
will remain likely.  PWATs were measured at 2.11" on our 12z
sounding this morning, and really don't see any reason why much
should change with the 00Z balloon.  That moisture content, combined
with freezing levels between 15KFT and 16KFT, points toward very
efficient warm rain processes continuing to dominate, with hourly rainfall
rates of 1-3"/hr probable.

Again, all will depend this evening on where exactly convection
develops.  It is certainly possible that the majority of the
rainfall will fall just north and east of the areas that saw such
extreme rainfall last night and early this morning.  However, it is
also a possibility that portions of the Gasconade and Big Piney
river basins could again see significant rainfall. Conditions will
continue to be monitored through the evening hours, especially as
00z RAOB data starts to become available.

Boxell

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

Wednesday: The main concern will continue to be the potential for
periods of heavy rainfall over the next couple of days along with
some severe storm potential as well. Ongoing convection may be
occurring starting Wed morning, as a sfc boundary drops somewhere
over the region. Where/if pockets of instability can develop, the
front will tend to focus possible strong to severe storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

Wednesday Night: An increasing low level jet is expected to ride
up and over the sfc boundary to our south with blossoming
convection from KS into MO late Wed night into Thu. 500mb small
scale waves will continue to ride wsw-ene through the region
through Fri with a more or less stationary sfc boundary over ne OK
into northern AR, so periods of heavy rain with elevated nighttime
storms looks like a good bet.

Thursday-Early Saturday: Looks like there will be the potential to see
repeated nighttime and early morning elevated convection Thu
night/Fri morning and Fri night/Sat morning. Small scale features
are difficult to discern but synoptically rainfall chances look
good. Three-five day rainfall totals could be three inches plus
over a large area (with locally heavier rain amounts of course). WPC
guidance is focusing heavier rainfall over the northern half of
the cwfa, but rather than focus on the placement, the amounts are
the main concern especially over central MO. Impact-wise, flooding
is likely to be a huge concern into the weekend.

Weekend-Tuesday: A bit more amplitude to the overall flow mid level flow
pattern is indicated by global models with more of a northwest
flow over the region by Sunday/Mon. This may help push the sfc
front farther south with time with at least a brief break in
heavier rainfall. Medium range guidance, at least the ECMWF and
GFS differ quite a bit on the degree of amplification with the
ridge over the Rockies with the ECMWF stronger and drier with the
nw flow aloft. Used consensus guidance with low pops late in the
extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

As has been the case for the past several nights, the primary
concern will be timing showers and thunderstorms. JLN and SGF
appear to be the most at risk for observing this activity during
the next 6 hours, with BBG potentially being affected around or
after daybreak. IFR visibility and MVFR ceilings will accompany
thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with winds,
in general, from a southerly direction.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
910 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080215-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
910 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  DEVELOP...BUT A LARGE PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY BE
  IMPACTED.

  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN
  BE EXPECTED WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

  WITH SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE REGION...FLASH FLOODING IS
  LIKELY WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. AREAS THAT NORMALLY DO
  NOT FLOOD WILL BE AT RISK FOR FLOODING.

  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS THAT EXPERIENCED
  EXTREME RAINFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
  WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO
  OCCURS...THE REDEVELOPMENT OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...LIFE
  THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
  INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS THROUGH THE
  AREA. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON A NEAR DAILY
  BASIS CAUSING ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVER LOCATIONS WITH SATURATED
  SOIL CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN
  MATERIALIZE.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON A
  DAILY BASIS THIS WEEK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
  PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ARE ENCOURAGED TO
  RELAY ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING THAT THREATEN LIFE OR PROPERTY
  TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER