Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
428 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS WHERE AMPLE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IS BEING OVERSPREAD BY
DIVERGENCE ALOFT INDICATED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUD ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOWED A DISTINCTLY SHEARED
APPEARANCE...WITH THE UPDRAFTS ELONGATED DOWN SHEAR. MODEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW A STRAIGHT-LINE ORIENTATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS..WHICH COULD SUPPORT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AS THE
CONVECTION MATURES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT ARE VERY
SUPPORTING OF SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE
MARGINAL...LESS THAN 50 OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...BUT VALUES
STEADILY INCREASES TOWARD THE EAST IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO
VALUES NEAR 150. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE FORMING AND MOVING
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ALONG SIMILAR TRAJECTORIES...MAKING
TRAINING STORMS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR SUPERCELLS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...MOVING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
HELICITY VALUES INCREASING AS STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST...THE
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A
MORE LINEAR MODE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SEE MESO AFD FOR MORE DETAILS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE FLOODING/HYDRO ISSUES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL IMPINGE ON APPROACHING MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARY. PROGGED
PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW DOMINATE PORTION OF THE
MCS SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG A WSW-
ENE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TARGETED THE MO
OZARK PLATEAU FOR THIS SCENARIO WITH AN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE EXCESSIVE/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE AN UNFOLDING STORM AND MESOSCALE ISSUE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. MAY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
EXITS...BUT WILL TACKLE THAT LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUIET AND COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE W-E UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD
THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...KARDELL
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WEST OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 5.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES.

THERE IS A LIMITED TO ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND OVER ALL THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     FLOOD            JASPER                  37.34N 94.30W
05/31/2013                   JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED ACROSS JASPER COUNTY. THESE INCLUDE
            JACKPINE RD FROM CR 160 TO CR 170...CR 180 FROM HWY 96 TO
            KAFIR RD...AND CR 90 FROM HARMONY RD TO IVORY RD. THESE
            ARE ALL ALONG THE SPRING RIVER.

&&

BOXELL