Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
124 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

18Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATION SHOWS A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
(EML)/CAP BASED AT AROUND 725MB WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
IT IN THE MID-LEVELS. PROGGED 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOWED THIS...BUT
WERE WEAKER WITH CAPPING. A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HELPED
REINFORCE A WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SFC LOW
FROM NORTH OF KCNU TO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION. THE MAIN NEAR
TERM CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS THE REGION
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWFA WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
70S JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPES ARE
ALREADY OVER 2000 J/KG. SOME WEAK/ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ATTM. BACKED SFC WINDS CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. WITH THE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED
CAP...THE ONSET OF STRONGER STORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWFA MAY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

OVER THE PLAINS...STRONG/EXCESSIVE INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL OK WILL BE CAPPED UNTIL A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE WSW FLOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WEAKENS
CAPPING. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK TOWARD
00Z. VERTICAL SHEAR...STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...LARGE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH MID
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINE AND SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THETA-E DIFFERENCES
AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A STRONG WIND RISK WITH THIS LINE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA IT AFFECTS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL RISK. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT A ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WITHIN THIS LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SEE MESO AFD FOR MORE DETAILS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN LATE
TONIGHT WILL BE FLOODING/HYDRO ISSUES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET WILL IMPINGE ON APPROACHING MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARY. PROGGED
PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW DOMINATE PORTION OF THE
MCS SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN ALONG A WSW-
ENE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TARGETED THE MO
OZARK PLATEAU FOR THIS SCENARIO WITH AN EXCESS OF 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE EXCESSIVE/HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE AN UNFOLDING STORM AND MESOSCALE ISSUE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. MAY
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
EXITS...BUT WILL TACKLE THAT LATER ON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE QUIET AND COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE W-E UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD
THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...DSA
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WEST OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 5.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES.

THERE IS A LIMITED TO ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SATURDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND OVER ALL THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     FLOOD            JASPER                  37.34N 94.30W
05/31/2013                   JASPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED ACROSS JASPER COUNTY. THESE INCLUDE
            JACKPINE RD FROM CR 160 TO CR 170...CR 180 FROM HWY 96 TO
            KAFIR RD...AND CR 90 FROM HARMONY RD TO IVORY RD. THESE
            ARE ALL ALONG THE SPRING RIVER.

&&

BOXELL