River Flood Warning 38, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
155 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

THE INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE COME TOGETHER OVER THE OZARKS AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
TORNADOES.

A SPECIAL RADIOSONDE OBSERVATION WAS PERFORMED AT NOON...AND THIS
DATA MEASURED 2075 J/KG OF CAPE FROM A MIXED LAYER PARCEL. 90 J/KG
OF THIS CAPE WAS DISTRIBUTED BELOW 3 KM...SUGGESTING AN INCREASED
RISK FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON.

DECENT NORMALIZED CAPE WITHIN THE -10 TO -30 LAYER...ALSO
INDICATES THAT LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP...REAR INFLOW WINDS
FORCED TO THE SURFACE WOULD CREATE A DAMAGING WIND RISK. SO ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORM
TYPES COULD BE MIXED AND MESSY AS WELL.

REGARDING THE SHEAR...35 TO 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION.

CRAMER

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

A SIGNIFICANT EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. CLEARING THIS
MORNING ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING TO DESTABILIZE OUR AIRMASS.
THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DECENT SHEAR...WILL ORGANIZE
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH...AND TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A NICE 700
MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION FROM KANSAS.

THE HYDROLOGY SITUATION IS ALSO BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AN AREA THAT
EXPERIENCED WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES LAST NIGHT.
FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS CHEROKEE...CRAWFORD...AND BOURBON
COUNTIES...AND WILL ONLY BECOME WORSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EVENTUALLY LATE TONIGHT...STORM INTENSITIES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BEGIN TO CEASE...MOST LIKELY SETTING UP A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY BLANKET THE OZARKS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL BE IDEAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. AS A MATTER OF FACT...SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING
THAT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM THREE
TO FIVE INCHES...JUST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONE.

RAINFALL WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

CRAMER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH WELCOMED ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE AT BAY...ALLOWING
FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THERE IS A SIGNAL FROM THE GFS...INDICATING THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING...POTENTIALLY CREATING A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN IF THIS
MATERIALIZES...THIS CLUSTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY...AND ONLY IMPACT A
FEW LOCATIONS.

WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL
SIGNAL A UNSEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED OFF CYCLONE POSITIONED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE
PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LETS JUST GET THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
WE'LL FOCUS A LITTLE MORE ON NEXT WEEK THOUGH :)

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

A COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TAFS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE REDEVELOPMENT
FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AT AREA TERMINALS
BUT UNDER CONVECTION AND SHOWERS WILL SEE CEILINGS AND VIS DROPPING TO
MVFR. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS THIS MORNING FOR JLN AND SGF TO COVER THIS
AND PROB30 MENTIONED FOR ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN WILL BE GUSTY LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR JLN AND SGF.
HAVE MENTIONED NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET FROM 06Z TILL 12Z TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR JLN AND SGF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL MISSOURI COUNTIES

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...CRAMER
SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...GRIFFIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1204 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
 THE MISSOURI OZARKS. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
 BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND TORNADOES
 WILL BE POSSIBLE.

 ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
 MISSOURI LATER THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
 SEVERE AS WELL.

 FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
 AREA TODAY. EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
 SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING...SINCE THIS REGION HAS ALREADY
 EXPERIENCED TWO TO THREE INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
 FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW
 MOVING COLD FRONT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
 ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
 IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

 WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD ACROSS
 EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. STORM
 TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE
 BETWEEN TWO AND FIVE INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND
 SIX INCHES POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
 EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

 SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES FRIDAY ACROSS EXTREME
 SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
 LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 49.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 AM     TORNADO          1 NNW BOLIVAR           37.63N 93.42W
05/20/2013                   POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THIS IS A DELAYED REPORT. NWS AND POLK COUNTY EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT HAVE DETERMINED THAT AN EF-0 TORNADO OCCURRED
            DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF 5/20/13. TORNADO STARTED
            1NNW BOLIVAR AROUND 102AM TRAVELED APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
            AND LIFTED AROUND 108AM ABOUT 1NE BOLIVAR. ONE TRAILER
            WAS BLOWN ONTO A ROAD...SMALL BARN OVERTURNED...AND
            SEVERAL TREES WERE UPROOTED. ESTIMATED WIND SPEED WAS 85
            MPH AND PATH WIDTH WAS 100 YDS.

&&

GAEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
125 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     HAIL             GIRARD                  37.51N 94.84W
05/30/2013  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MSUTTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
143 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

KSZ097-101-301930-
CHEROKEE KS-CRAWFORD KS-
143 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND WESTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 142 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF MCCUNE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF ST.
PAUL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HEPLER...MCCUNE...WALNUT AND WEST MINERAL.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND WESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3767 9508 3768 9488 3729 9481 3726 9508
      3738 9508 3739 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 226DEG 24KT 3739 9517

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

MOZ068-079-080-302000-
HICKORY MO-POLK MO-DALLAS MO-
236 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HICKORY...NORTHEASTERN
POLK AND NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 233 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HALF WAY...OR 8 MILES EAST OF BOLIVAR...
MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3798 9307 3791 9308 3790 9306 3756 9317
      3759 9335 3800 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 190DEG 41KT 3766 9325

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

MOZ055>057-066>069-078>081-089-302100-
BENTON MO-CAMDEN MO-CEDAR MO-HICKORY MO-LACLEDE MO-MILLER MO-
MORGAN MO-POLK MO-ST. CLAIR MO-VERNON MO-DADE MO-DALLAS MO-
256 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...CAMDEN...CEDAR...EASTERN
VERNON...HICKORY...MILLER...MORGAN...NORTHERN DADE...NORTHERN
DALLAS...NORTHWESTERN LACLEDE...POLK AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEADMINE...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BUFFALO...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND
45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OVER 40 AND HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF NICKLES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3865 9283 3860 9283 3844 9262 3843 9241
      3834 9240 3833 9227 3802 9237 3802 9241
      3776 9245 3734 9407 3764 9408 3764 9411
      3806 9417 3804 9407 3822 9405 3821 9353
      3852 9351 3854 9308 3868 9307 3870 9298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 199DEG 39KT 3788 9296

WISE