Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
759 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE OVERWHELMED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN RETROGRADE...MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8AM FRIDAY MORNING.

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LOW FFG VALUES...EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...VERY WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS AND
THE EXTREME EVENTS IN SOME LOCATIONS YESTERDAY.

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. PWATS REMAIN VERY HIGH EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS 2.0+
INCHES. USED A BLEND OF HRRR...RNKWRFARW AND NAM FOR POPS TONIGHT.
LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WARMER ADJMAV WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADDED SOME
FOG TO ISC GRIDS OVERNIGHT.  THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE EAST FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH ENTERING NEW ENGLAND IS NO MATCH FOR THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY CUT
OFF...APPEARING TO BOUNCE OFF THE HIGH (LOOP THE ECMWF 500 HEIGHTS)
AND BEGIN RETROGRADING THIS WEEKEND. AS SUCH...ANY DRY AIR THAT
MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS
GONE BY SATURDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...COMBINATION OF
LIFT AND DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND.
HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY. WPC (HPC) IS NOW FORECASTING
UPWARDS OF AN INCH /1.00/ OF RAIN CENTERED OVER OUR MTNS FROM
12Z/8AM SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z/8AM SUNDAY. ATTM THINK BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY PER DEEPENING
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOMETHING ELSE THAT MAY AID IN THE INCREASING RAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE REMNANTS OF TS CHANTAL. THE 85H WIND FIELD FCST TRACK THIS
FEATURE FROM THE BAHAMAS NW INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE
GFS SEEMS OVERDONE...BUT THE ECMWF SEEM ABOUT RIGHT RESEMBLING
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. EITHER MODEL...HOWEVER...SUGGEST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RAIN THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD BUT HELD TO A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE PER
MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY 70S TO AROUND
80 FOR HIGHS...LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL FEATURE A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THE UPPER LOW WHICH DEVELOPS AND
BREAKS AWAY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND PUSH WEST-SOUTHWEST REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DAY 7.

THIS SUGGESTS LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIMITED
TO DAYTIME HEATING...THE UPPER LOW MOVING TOO FAR WEST TO BE AN
INFLUENCE. IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS AS ROBUST AS FORECAST
597DM...THIS MAY CAUSE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO POTENTIALLY LIMIT
DEEP CONVECTION TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT COVERAGE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL TEMPS HAVE TRENDED WARMER...BUT STILL NOTHING EXTREME. 85H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO BUILD CLOSE TO +20 DEG C BY MID WEEK WHICH SUGGEST
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...POSSIBLY 90 URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO CREEP UPWARD A LITTLE WITH TMINS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM KLYH TO KDAN ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM KHSP TO KMKJ...BUT THIS WAS JUST EAST OF KBLF
AND KLWB. ASIDE FROM THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WITH
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS
TO DEVELOP DUE TO WET GROUND AND NEAR CALM WINDS.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EXPECTED. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT A DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EARLY MORNING
IFR BR/FG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>019-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ012>019-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-122030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
422 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. THE GROUND
ACROSS THE REGION IS TOTALLY SATURATED FROM PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING QUICKLY THEREAFTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...THE
PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED AND CAN BE
SENT TO THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST OFFICE VIA OUR WEB
SITE...FACEBOOK...TWITTER...OR PHONED INTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-009>011-020-WVZ042>045-122030-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
422 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...THE
PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
718 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE LYNCHBURG CITY    37.40N 79.14W
07/11/2013                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FISHING CREEK FLOODING FLORIDA AVE

&&

AMS

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