River Flood Warning 41, NWS Blacksburg, VA

327 
WGUS81 KRNK 121717
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS
IN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
 
  DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE AFFECTING CASWELL...CITY OF DANVILLE AND 
  PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA.
 
  DAN RIVER NEAR PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 
  DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN VIRGINIA...
ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES
  
MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

RIVER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON THE DAN RIVER NEAR
DANVILLE...THEREFORE THE WARNING FOR THAT LOCATION HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. BASIN RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE DAN RIVER NEAR PACES AND SOUTH
BOSTON...ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER 
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.

 
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&

VAC037-083-130117-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-130713T2116Z/
/RNDV2.2.ER.130712T0638Z.130712T1800Z.130713T0916Z.NO/
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 12PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.1 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
AT 24.0 FEET... WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING IN FIELDS ON LEFT BANK 
AND WOODS ON RIGHT BANK.  
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 25.0 FEET ON MAY 9 2013.

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-121747-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-130713T0843Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.130712T1243Z.130712T1245Z.130712T1252Z.NO/
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR DANVILLE. 
* AT 12PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.


$$

VAC083-130117-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-130713T1431Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.130712T1555Z.130713T0000Z.130713T0231Z.NO/
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR PACES.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. 
* AT 12PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 20.8 FEET BY THIS EVENING. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
AT 20.0 FEET... LOW-LYING PASTURE/AGRICULTURAL LANDS ARE FLOODED.  
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.6 FEET ON OCT 29 
  2010.

$$

VAC083-130117-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-130713T2153Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.130712T1405Z.130713T0600Z.130713T0953Z.NO/
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 12PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.7 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 21.7 FEET ON MAR 27 
  2012.

$$

739 
WGUS81 KRNK 130111
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
911 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...
 
  ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES 
  DAN RIVER NEAR PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN VIRGINIA...
  DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 


MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

BASIN RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWED THE DAN AND
ROANOKE RIVERS TO RISE INTO MINOR FLOODING LEVELS. THE ROANOKE RIVER
AT RANDOLPH CRESTED EARLIER TODAY AND IS SLOWLY FALLING. THE DAN RIVER
AT PACES IS NEAR CREST...AND AT SOUTH BOSTON IT IS STILL RISING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER 
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.

 
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE 11 PM.

&&

VAC037-083-130911-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-130714T0900Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.130712T0638Z.130712T1515Z.130713T2100Z.NO/
911 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.
* UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. 
* AT 08PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW 
  AFTERNOON.
AT 22.0 FEET... RIVER ROAD IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND BLACK WALNUT ROAD 
IN HALIFAX ARE CLOSED BY FLOODING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 22.5 FEET ON FEB 1 2013.

$$

VAC083-130911-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-130713T1404Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.130712T1555Z.130712T2330Z.130713T0204Z.NO/
911 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR PACES.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. 
* AT 07PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER TONIGHT.
AT 20.0 FEET... LOW-LYING PASTURE/AGRICULTURAL LANDS ARE FLOODED..  
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.6 FEET ON OCT 29 
  2010.

$$

VAC083-130911-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-130713T2153Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.130712T1405Z.130713T0600Z.130713T0953Z.NO/
911 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
* AT 08PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.7 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 21.7 FEET ON MAR 27 
  2012.

$$

827 
WGUS81 KRNK 130154
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
VIRGINIA...
 
  ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES 
  DAN RIVER NEAR PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 
  DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 

MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

BASIN RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWED THE DAN AND
ROANOKE RIVERS TO RISE INTO MINOR FLOODING LEVELS. THE ROANOKE RIVER
AT RANDOLPH CRESTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS SLOWLY FALLING. THE DAN RIVER
AT PACES IS NEAR CRESTING...AND AT SOUTH BOSTON...THE RIVER IS STILL RISING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER 
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.
 
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 4AM SATURDAY. 

&&

VAC037-083-130954-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-130713T2308Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.130712T0638Z.130712T1515Z.130713T1108Z.NO/
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. 
* AT 08PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW 
  MORNING.
AT 22.0 FEET...RIVER ROAD IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND BLACK WALNUT ROAD 
IN HALIFAX ARE CLOSED BY FLOODING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 22.5 FEET ON FEB 1 2013.

$$

VAC083-130954-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-130713T1501Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.130712T1555Z.130712T2330Z.130713T0301Z.NO/
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR PACES.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. 
* AT 08PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND THE RIVER IS FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.
AT 20.0 FEET...LOW-LYING PASTURE/AGRICULTURAL LANDS ARE FLOODED.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.6 FEET ON OCT 29 
  2010.

$$

VAC083-130954-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-130713T2258Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.130712T1405Z.130713T0600Z.130713T1058Z.NO/
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. 
* AT 09PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.4 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 21.7 FEET ON MAR 27 
  2012.

$$

178 
WGUS81 KRNK 130551
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
151 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS
IN VIRGINIA...
 
  DAN RIVER NEAR PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY
 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN VIRGINIA..
  ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES
  
  DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY 


MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

 THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH CRESTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS SLOWLY
 FALLING. THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON IS SLOWLY RISING AND WILL CREST
 LATE THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER 
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.

 
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 800 AM SATURDAY. 

&&

VAC037-083-131351-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-130713T2308Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.130712T0638Z.130712T1515Z.130713T1108Z.NO/
151 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH.
* UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. 
* AT 1 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS 
  MORNING.
AT 22.0 FEET...RIVER ROAD IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY AND BLACK WALNUT ROAD 
IN HALIFAX ARE CLOSED BY FLOODING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 22.5 FEET ON FEB 1 2013.

$$

VAC083-130621-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-130713T1501Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.130712T1555Z.130712T2330Z.130713T0425Z.NO/
151 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DAN RIVER NEAR PACES.
* AT 12 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
AT 20.0 FEET...LOW-LYING PASTURE/AGRICULTURAL LANDS ARE FLOODED.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 20.6 FEET ON OCT 29 2010.

$$

VAC083-131351-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-130713T2258Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.130712T1405Z.130713T0500Z.130713T1058Z.NO/
151 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON.
* UNTIL THIS EVENING. 
* AT 01 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.7 FEET AND SLOWLY RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 21.7 FEET ON MAR 27 
  2012.

$$
RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A PESKY LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT INTO
WEST VIRGINIA AND STALL...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY BACK WEST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME NEXT WEEK AND BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND TYPICAL OF SUMMER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

KFCX WILL BE DOWN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR EMERGENCY REPAIRS.

PNS OUT WITH RAINFALL TOTALS.

THE 08AM/12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED PWATS ARE LOWER AT 1.09 INCHES
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AS
MORE EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES AROUND THE BUILDING ATLANTIC HIGH. BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW...CONVECTION WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TODAY BECAUSE OF THE EXTREMELY LOW FFG VALUES...IN SOME
CASES LESS THAN 1.0 INCH/HR FOR FLASH FLOODING. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MODIFIED POPS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS AS MORNING PROGRESSES.

AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH VERY TROPICAL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT CONTINUES. TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING
THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO DANVILLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH OVER FOUR INCHES OF RAIN AT THE DANVILLE AIRPORT
SINCE ABOUT 10 PM THURSDAY EVENING. RAINFALL OF THREE TO SIX
INCHES WAS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF
CHARLOTTE...HALIFAX...PITTSYLVANIA...AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES.
SEVERAL WATER RESCUES REPORTED FROM DANVILLE CITY AND
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY. MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING ALSO ONGOING NOW AS
A RESULT ON THE ROANOKE AT RANDOLPH AND EXPECTED ON THE DAN LATER
TODAY AT SOUTH BOSTON.

THE DRYING EXPECTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO WILL BE POSTPONED UNTIL
NEXT WEEK UNFORTUNATELY. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL STALL
ACROSS WV AND THEN RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE WEST INTO KY/TN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE EQUALLY RETROGRADE FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND RETURN US TO MORE
SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GOOD NEWS FOR TODAY IS THAT PWATS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY...MOSTLY
IN THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE AS OPPOSED TO 2.0+ INCHES. IN
ADDITION...INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS AS EASTERLY FLOW EVOLVES
AROUND THE BUILDING ATLANTIC HIGH. THERE SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE
CONVECTION AND MORE GENERAL STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
CELLS. NONETHELESS...BECAUSE OF THE EXTREMELY LOW FFG VALUES...IN
SOME CASES LESS THAN 1.0 INCH/HR FOR FLASH FLOODING...HAVE OPTED
TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
REMOVED ALLEGHANY COUNTY WHERE LESS RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED...BUT
ADDED SMYTH COUNTY AS SHRA/TSRA SPREAD IN THAT DIRECTION LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS AT THIS POINT FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF I-81...MOVING MORE
TOWARD OUR NW NC COUNTIES INTO THE WEEKEND. AS NOTED
ABOVE...HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN IS ARE THE VERY LOW FFG VALUES
AND THE SIMPLE FACT THAT WE CANNOT TAKE HARDLY ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EAST OF THE ALLEGHANYS AT THIS POINT. THE WV COUNTIES
SHOULD BE JUST FINE AS THEY HAVE NOT HAD A FRACTION OF THE
RAINFALL MANY OF THE VA AND NC COUNTIES HAVE SEEN THE PAST TWO
WEEKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...THANKS TO CLOUDS...PCPN...AND EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BARREL TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY THEN OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES AND RAIN AXIS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THIS RIDGE WILL BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
85H TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO +22C BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S THIS WEEKEND. EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL FEATURE A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.  THE UPPER LOW WHICH DEVELOPS AND
BREAKS AWAY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND PUSH WEST-SOUTHWEST REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DAY 7.

THIS SUGGESTS LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK WILL BE LIMITED
TO DAYTIME HEATING...THE UPPER LOW MOVING TOO FAR WEST TO BE AN
INFLUENCE. IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS AS ROBUST AS FORECAST
597DM...THIS MAY CAUSE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO POTENTIALLY LIMIT
DEEP CONVECTION TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT COVERAGE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
THE MOUNTAINS.

MODEL TEMPS HAVE TRENDED WARMER...BUT STILL NOTHING EXTREME. 85H
TEMPS ARE FCST TO BUILD CLOSE TO +20 DEG C BY MID WEEK WHICH SUGGEST
HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S...POSSIBLY 90 URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD
ALSO CREEP UPWARD A LITTLE WITH TMINS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     AS OF 730AM EDT FRIDAY...

BIZARRE SUMMER PATTERN WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA SCHEDULED TO
RETROGRADE TO MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO
BREAK UP LATER THIS MORNING WITH START OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH EXPECTING
CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR FOR KLWB AND KBLF AS UPPER LOW AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES
HELP ENHANCE LIFT AND GENERATE SHOWERS. EXPECT A MORE DIURNAL FLAVOR TO
CIGS AND WEATHER AT OTHER LOCATIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE TRENDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. DO NOT SEE ANY PARTICULAR FEATURES TO FOCUS
OR TIME CONVECIVE DEVELOPMENT SO WILL KEEP KBCB...KROA..KLYH...AND KDAY DRY EARLY
AND USE VICINITY AFTER 18Z.

AS UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS WWD TREK...A SHORT WAVE WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH FLOW BECOMING SELY. HIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SHOW MOISTURE SUCKING BACK WWD AS THE LOW MOVES...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

.AVIATION EXTENDED...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EXPECTED. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECT A DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EARLY MORNING IFR
BR/FG...BUT OVERALL IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH MUCH MORE VFR THAN
CURRENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM EDT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
PATTERN...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO EXTEND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE THIS ON A DAY-BY-DAY BASIS. WE WILL
EVENTUALLY GET OUT OF THIS PATTERN...BUT IT COULD BE MONDAY BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS IN EARNEST. IN THE MEANTIME...FFG VALUES ARE
EXTREMELY LOW AND ALTHOUGH INTENSE/ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD TODAY...RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING OVER AREAS THAT ARE
EXCESSIVELY SATURATED AND SIMPLY CANNOT TAKE ANY MORE RAINFALL AT
ALL. HAVE DROPPED ALLEGHANY COUNTY VA FROM THE WATCH...BUT ADDED
SMYTH COUNTY AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THAT AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR VAZ009-012>018-
     022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MBS/RAB
HYDROLOGY...RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ012>019-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-122030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
422 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. THE GROUND
ACROSS THE REGION IS TOTALLY SATURATED FROM PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING QUICKLY THEREAFTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...THE
PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED AND CAN BE
SENT TO THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST OFFICE VIA OUR WEB
SITE...FACEBOOK...TWITTER...OR PHONED INTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-009>011-020-WVZ042>045-122030-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
422 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...THE
PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
709 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE   37.05N 78.63W
07/12/2013                   CHARLOTTE          VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING INCLUDING WOODFORK
            ROAD

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
735 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E DANVILLE CITY       36.58N 79.34W
07/12/2013                   CITY OF DANVILLE   VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGH WATER RESCUE IN THE 1400 BLOCK OF SOUTH BOSTON ROAD
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
850 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S BLAIRS              36.66N 79.39W
07/11/2013                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUE ON AFTON ROAD

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
853 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E MT AIRY             36.94N 79.17W
07/11/2013                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FAMILY RESCUED ON WHITE FALL ROAD AFTER A BRIDGE AND PART
            OF THE ROAD COLLAPSED. EM REPORTS 8 TO 9 OTHER ROADS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
916 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW BROOKNEAL          37.00N 79.04W
07/12/2013                   HALIFAX            VA   PUBLIC

            TOBACCO ROAD AT ROUTE 40 WAS CLOSED OVERNIGHT DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
929 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     FLOOD            GALAX CITY              36.67N 80.92W
07/11/2013                   CITY OF GALAX      VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RT 89 CLOSED IN GALAX DUE TO FLOODING.

0440 PM     FLOOD            GALAX CITY              36.67N 80.92W
07/11/2013                   CITY OF GALAX      VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING ON GIVENS RD NEAR CHESTNUT CREEK

0526 PM     FLOOD            5 ESE BLAIRS            36.66N 79.30W
07/11/2013                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING ALONG PARTS OF AFTON ROAD

0607 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E CONCORD             37.35N 78.95W
07/11/2013                   APPOMATTOX         VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            PARTS OF ROUTE 460 AT HWY 24 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW LYNCHBURG CITY    37.40N 79.18W
07/11/2013                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LAKESIDE DRIVE NEAR COLLEGE DRIVE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0632 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE FOREST            37.39N 79.21W
07/11/2013                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MCCONVILLE ROAD FLOODED

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE LYNCHBURG CITY    37.40N 79.14W
07/11/2013                   CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FISHING CREEK FLOODING FLORIDA AVE

0734 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW CONCORD           37.39N 79.01W
07/11/2013                   CAMPBELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            STAGE ROAD FLOODED BY ARCHER CREEK

0852 PM     FLOOD            5 S BLAIRS              36.61N 79.40W
07/11/2013                   CITY OF DANVILLE   VA   911 CALL CENTER

            WEST WITT ROAD NEAR MOUNTAIN VIEW FLOODED

0900 PM     FLOOD            DANVILLE CITY           36.58N 79.42W
07/11/2013                   CITY OF DANVILLE   VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EIGHT TO NINE ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY CLOSED BECAUSE OF
            FLOODING.

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW BLAIRS            36.66N 79.39W
07/11/2013                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUE REQUIRED ON AFTON ROAD NEAR BUT OUTSIDE
            DANVILLE CITY.

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRETNA                  36.95N 79.37W
07/11/2013                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAR STRANDED ON WHITE FALLS ROAD ONE MILE FROM VIRGINIA
            HIGHWAY 640 EAST WHEN THE ROAD WAS WASHED OUT ON BOTH
            SIDES OF THE VEHICLE.

0903 PM     FLOOD            2 SSW BLAIRS            36.66N 79.39W
07/11/2013                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FALL CREEK FLOODING PARTS OF AFTON ROAD

0903 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S BLAIRS              36.66N 79.39W
07/11/2013                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUE ON AFTON ROAD

0928 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E MT AIRY             36.94N 79.17W
07/11/2013                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FAMILY RESCUED ON WHITE FALL ROAD AFTER A BRIDGE AND PART
            OF THE ROAD COLLAPSED. EM REPORTS 8 TO 9 OTHER ROADS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

1100 PM     FLOOD            5 WNW NATHALIE          36.98N 79.03W
07/11/2013                   HALIFAX            VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CREEK FLOODED TOBACCO ROAD

1115 PM     FLOOD            3 SE MAX MEADOWS        36.93N 80.90W
07/11/2013                   WYTHE              VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING AT NATIONAL FISH HATCHERY. WATER ENTERING
            BUILDING. GLADE CREEK FLOODED RED HOLLOW ROAD.

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW LYNCHBURG CITY    37.41N 79.17W
07/12/2013  M3.49 INCH       CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SINCE 520PM

0130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E DANVILLE CITY       36.58N 79.34W
07/12/2013                   CITY OF DANVILLE   VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGH WATER RESCUE IN THE 1400 BLOCK OF SOUTH BOSTON ROAD
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING

0306 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S BLAIRS              36.62N 79.39W
07/12/2013                   CITY OF DANVILLE   VA   911 CALL CENTER

            BASEMENTS BEING FLOODED ALONG TIMBER LAKE ROAD.

0306 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E DANVILLE CITY       36.59N 79.38W
07/12/2013                   CITY OF DANVILLE   VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE CAR SUBMERGE UNDER WATER ALONG HYW 58 WHERE RIVERSIDE
            DR AND SOUTH BOSTON ROAD MEET.

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE   37.05N 78.63W
07/12/2013                   CHARLOTTE          VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING INCLUDING WOODFORK
            ROAD

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW BROOKNEAL          37.00N 79.04W
07/12/2013                   HALIFAX            VA   PUBLIC

            TOBACCO ROAD AT ROUTE 40 WAS CLOSED OVERNIGHT DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

FISHER