Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
213 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENTLY HAVE A LULL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CWA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN VORT MAX-INDUCED CONVECTION TO THE
EAST...AND NEW CELLS FORMING IN AN ESSENTIALLY AUTOCONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST.  CENTRAL CWA SHOULD SEE CELLS SOON AS WELL
ONCE SURFACE-BASED CIN GENERATED BY EARLIER RAIN CAN BREAK UP.

HI-RES MODELS STILL BRING MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IN FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z OR SO.  THINK THIS MAKES SENSE AS COLD
POOLS FROM CURRENT STORMS AND APPROACHING INDIANA ACTIVITY START
INTERACTING WITH A QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HAVE LIKELY POPS SINKING
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE 3000
J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK
THOUGH.  GENERALLY EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED
AND LIMITED TO HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

AS FOR THE FLOOD THREAT...AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE NORTHERN CWA
WHERE THE LOWEST FFG VALUES LIE ALONG WITH THE BEST THREAT OF
NEAR-TERM HEAVY RAINFALL. JUST-RELEASED WPC MPD MESSAGE HIGHLIGHTS
THIS AREA. TOUGH TO FIGURE WHERE GENERALLY HIGHER BASIN-AVERAGE QPF
WILL OCCUR...BUT ANY LOCATION WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO TORRENTIAL RAIN
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERAL PWAT VALUES STILL AROUND 2 INCHES.
ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON EXPANSION OF FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN DRIER
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL ALERT NEXT SHIFT TO
MONITOR FOR THIS NEED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND
12Z AND CROSS THE REST OF THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY
WANES...SO FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO DROP ON TIME.
POST-FROPA...SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF H850 FRONT MAY KEEP
LOWER CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA AROUND FOR A TIME.  ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z.  THEN...CWA WILL GET
A MUCH-NEEDED RESPITE FROM THE RAIN.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FINALLY A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING
TREND TAKING PLACE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
CLEARING WILL MAKE IT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUED
TO BE CONSERVATIVE WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES. DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR
FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. COULD ALSO BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE CLEARING...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SETTLES INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING...WHICH IS
A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM...AND
BECOME MORE HUMID ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...BUT FOR NOW LEFT A DRY FORECAST AS BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE
TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PATTERN THEN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY
CUTS OFF FROM UPPER TROUGH ALONG EAST COAST...AND FORMS AN UPPER LOW
THAT WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE GENERAL TRACK OF THIS LOW...WHICH WILL
AFFECT HOW GREAT OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WE SEE ACROSS THE
CWA...BUT AS STATED BEFORE...FOLLOWED WPC THINKING/BLEND OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF...WHICH BRINGS THE LOW FARTHER WEST OVER OUR CWA THAN THE
GFS. REGARDLESS...HOT...HUMID...AND STORMY WEATHER LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
GENERALLY VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.  CU HAVE FORMED/WILL FORM
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET.  BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION
ALONG MOUNTAINS AND DEVELOPING IN NE KY/SE OH.  DID NOT TEMPO FOR
THIS DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE BUT DID INCLUDE VCTS AT HTS/BKW FOR
NOW.  EXPECT MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION AFTER 21Z AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT...WITH AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS
DURING THE NIGHT.  EXPECTING GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS
CIGS FALL WITH THE RAIN...AGAIN SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF HEAVIER
RAIN.

FRONT REACHES OHIO RIVER AROUND 12Z AND IS IN OR APPROACHING THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.  MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR A BIT
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT A DEFINITE IMPROVING TREND WILL BE SEEN BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-039-040.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...CL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
113 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLOOD            6 N MARIETTA            39.51N  81.45W
07/10/2013                   WASHINGTON         OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL SECTIONS OF STATE ROUTE 821 JUST SOUTH OF
            WHIPPLE ARE FLOODED DUE TO DUCK CREEK FLOWING OUT OF ITS
            BANKS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1300736

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLOOD            LOWER SALEM             39.56N  81.39W
07/10/2013                   WASHINGTON         OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL SECTIONS OF STATE ROUTES 145 AND 821 FLOODED
            AROUND THE TOWN OF LOWER SALEM DUE TO DUCK CREEK FLOWING
            OUT OF ITS BANKS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1300737

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLOOD            8 WNW MATAMORAS         39.56N  81.21W
07/10/2013                   WASHINGTON         OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THE INTERSECTION OF STATE ROUTES 26 AND 260 IS FLOODED
            DUE TO THE LITTLE MUSKINGUM RIVER FLOWING OUT OF ITS
            BANKS

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1300738

TAX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

OHZ086-087-WVZ007-101900-
GALLIA OH-LAWRENCE OH-MASON WV-
211 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GALLIA...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE AND WEST CENTRAL MASON COUNTIES...

AT 209 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LAKE VESUVIUS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GAGE AROUND 235 PM AND GALLOPOLIS FERRY
AROUND 300 PM.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3890 8213 3866 8206 3860 8262 3878 8267

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

KYZ103-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>007-014-102000-
BOYD KY-CABELL WV-GALLIA OH-LAWRENCE OH-MASON WV-PUTNAM WV-WAYNE WV-
255 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOYD...LAWRENCE...NORTHERN
CABELL...NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHERN GALLIA
AND WESTERN MASON COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF
COAL GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CHESAPEAKE...AND HUNTINGTON AROUND 300 PM...
AID AROUND 305 PM...PROCTORVILLE AROUND 310 PM...WATERLOO AROUND 315
PM...SCOTTOWN AROUND 320 PM AND ATHALIA AROUND 325 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
1 AND 8 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3888 8210 3856 8196 3834 8259 3862 8271

06