Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
656 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY MIDSUMMER ENVIRONMENT. DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING MORE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE.
WELCOME RELIEF IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THURSDAY. DRIER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER HANDLE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS WAS EVEN FASTER WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING ON
THURSDAY.  BUT...WILL NOT GO THAT FAST ON REMOVING THE POPS.

WILL STILL LEAVE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE POPS WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT.  HAVE FRONT PASSING THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES AROUND PKB BY
15Z...THEN REACHING THE WV MOUNTAINOUS AROUND BKW AROUND 21Z.
STILL THINKING LOW STRATUS OR FOG FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAWN FRIDAY. WITH WET SOILS...TRIED TO KEEP THE AREAS UNDER THE
STRATUS AND FOG A BIT HIGHER ON THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...LOWERING DEW
POINTS DURING THE DAY.  A WELCOME AND NEEDED CHANGE IN OUR MID
SUMMER ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

HOWEVER...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.  THE GFS ACTUALLY INDICATES THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL CUT-OFF AND MOVE WEST...ALLOWING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THE ECMWF ACTUALLY KEEPS THE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY INTO TUESDAY.

COMBINATION OF EASTERLY FLOW AND THE POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS
SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR FOG RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL...BUT SOME WINDS STIRRING
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-039-040.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/LS
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...RPY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-029-
101815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-GILMER-
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033>038-046-047-101815-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WVZ027-028-030>032-039-040-101815-
CLAY-BRAXTON-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ026-101815-
BOONE-
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR BOONE COUNTY...WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM

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