Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NC AS SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG/LOW STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAYS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
MOVING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE HIGH-RES CAM SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAVE POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...MAXIMIZED DURING PEAK HEATING AND DROPPING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT CERTAIN
AREAS...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH...COULD SEE GREATER COVERAGE
AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.
WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A PULSE
SEVERE ENVIRONMENT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS. WILL USE A PERSISTENT FORECAST AS A BASELINE FOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM MOIST AIRMASS...HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT THE ONSET TIME OF CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE COULD TRANSLATE INTO +/- 2 OR 3 DEGREES DIFFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

A STRONG PACIFIC JET AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LOW OFF THE
PAC NW COAST...AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE LEAD S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT...
CHARACTERIZED BY 20 METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER CENTRAL
NC...WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION ON THU. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN EASTWARD-MIGRATING
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH...SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE RAH CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...ON THE
ORDER OF 20 KTS AT H85 AND 25-30 KTS AT H5...WOULD SUPPORT
PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. HOWEVER...BACKGROUND SRH OF AROUND 100-150 M2/S2 OWING TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED INVOF
OUTFLOW...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN A WEST
TO EAST FASHION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT HEAD TOWARD THE COAST. WARM AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 90...AND GENERALLY LOWER 70S FOR LOWS.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRI IN RELATIVELY PERSISTENT PATTERN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT - WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

INCREASINGLY WET. STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP CARVE A DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE TN
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN
(TROUGH SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE MS VALLEY) THROUGH TUE. THE
PRESENCE OF AND PERSISTENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US...INCLUDING CENTRAL NC...IN A PATTERN OF DEEPLY MOIST SW
FLOW ALOFT...FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD
WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING RISK OF FLOODING WITH EACH DAY THAT
PASSES...WITH OTHERWISE AN OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION-LOADED WET
MICROBURST THE OTHER MAIN HAZARD. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE
80S...AND LOWS 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 144 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
REDUCED VISBYS AND BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT GUSTY AT KFAY AND
KRWI BUT SHOULD DIE DOWN A BIT AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A CHANCE AT
ALL TERMINALS OF SOME VCTS/TS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCES AT
KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI. IFR TO MVFR IN STRATUS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS A BIT STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN
THE EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD:
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-262015-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
AS WELL AS A FEW SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL...
WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THE RISK OF FLOODING ON MORE THAN A LOCALIZED BASIS WILL
INCREASE WITH EACH STORMY DAY THAT PASSES...AND WILL LIKELY PEAK
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
348 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW GUM SPRINGS        35.48N  79.23W
06/25/2013                   LEE                NC   911 CALL CENTER

            LEE COUNTY 911 RECEIVED REPORT OF TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWN AT CARBONTON RD AND OLD CARBONTON RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300713

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW GUM SPRINGS        35.48N  79.23W
06/25/2013                   LEE                NC   911 CALL CENTER

            LEE COUNTY 911 RECEIVED REPORT OF TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWN AT CARBONTON RD AND OLD CARBONTON RD.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300713

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW SANFORD           35.49N  79.21W
06/25/2013                   LEE                NC   911 CALL CENTER

            LEE COUNTY 911 RECEIVED REPORT OF TREE DOWN ON HOUSE AT
            1800 SPRING LAND IN SANFORD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300714

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
401 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RAEFORD                 34.98N  79.22W
06/25/2013                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            HWY 20 CLOSED DUE TO COMBINATION OF DOWNED TREES AND
            FLOODED ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300715

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
414 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             3 S CLAYTON             35.61N  78.46W
06/25/2013  E0.50 INCH       JOHNSTON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED HALF INCH HAIL AT RANCH RD AND HWY 70
            IN CLAYTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300716

TDH