Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NC AS SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG/LOW STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAYS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
MOVING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE HIGH-RES CAM SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAVE POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...MAXIMIZED DURING PEAK HEATING AND DROPPING OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT CERTAIN
AREAS...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH...COULD SEE GREATER COVERAGE
AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.
WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A PULSE
SEVERE ENVIRONMENT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS. WILL USE A PERSISTENT FORECAST AS A BASELINE FOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM MOIST AIRMASS...HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT THE ONSET TIME OF CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE COULD TRANSLATE INTO +/- 2 OR 3 DEGREES DIFFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

A STRONG PACIFIC JET AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LOW OFF THE
PAC NW COAST...AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE LEAD S/W TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT...
CHARACTERIZED BY 20 METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER CENTRAL
NC...WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION ON THU. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN EASTWARD-MIGRATING
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH...SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE RAH CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...ON THE
ORDER OF 20 KTS AT H85 AND 25-30 KTS AT H5...WOULD SUPPORT
PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. HOWEVER...BACKGROUND SRH OF AROUND 100-150 M2/S2 OWING TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED INVOF
OUTFLOW...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN A WEST
TO EAST FASHION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT HEAD TOWARD THE COAST. WARM AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 90...AND GENERALLY LOWER 70S FOR LOWS.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRI IN RELATIVELY PERSISTENT PATTERN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT - WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

INCREASINGLY WET. STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
HELP CARVE A DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE TN
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN
(TROUGH SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE MS VALLEY) THROUGH TUE. THE
PRESENCE OF AND PERSISTENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US...INCLUDING CENTRAL NC...IN A PATTERN OF DEEPLY MOIST SW
FLOW ALOFT...FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD
WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING RISK OF FLOODING WITH EACH DAY THAT
PASSES...WITH OTHERWISE AN OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION-LOADED WET
MICROBURST THE OTHER MAIN HAZARD. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE
80S...AND LOWS 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 144 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
REDUCED VISBYS AND BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT GUSTY AT KFAY AND
KRWI BUT SHOULD DIE DOWN A BIT AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A CHANCE AT
ALL TERMINALS OF SOME VCTS/TS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CHANCES AT
KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI. IFR TO MVFR IN STRATUS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS A BIT STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN
THE EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD:
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
442 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-260845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
442 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PERSISTENT WET
PATTERN WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING BY THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

NCZ075>077-251945-
HARNETT-LEE-MOORE-
247 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT...MOORE AND LEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 245 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHING FROM NEAR SANFORD SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MOORE
COUNTY...MOVING EAST AROUND 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE SANFORD...
CAMERON...VASS...SOUTHERN PINES...AND PINE VIEW.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT
IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND
USE EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 7952 3518 7963 3551 7959 3552 7936
      3555 7930 3553 7928 3557 7924 3556 7920
      3559 7917 3559 7905 3554 7902 3553 7897
      3554 7895 3521 7896 3519 7909 3516 7912
      3521 7925 3507 7943 3506 7948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 180DEG 0KT 3526 7960

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
257 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RAEFORD                 34.98N  79.23W
06/25/2013                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN ON HARRIS AVENUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300710

MLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE RAEFORD            34.97N  79.21W
06/25/2013                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AT OAKDALE GIN ROAD AND HWY 20.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300711

MLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             RAEFORD                 34.98N  79.22W
06/25/2013  M0.88 INCH       HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NICKEL HAIL REPORTED BY DEPUTY IN DOWNTOWN RAEFORD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300712

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

NCZ027-041>043-252015-
JOHNSTON-NASH-WAKE-WILSON-
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS JOHNSTON...NASH...WILSON
AND WAKE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EMIT...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTH OF SMITHFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS JOHNSTON...NASH...WILSON AND
WAKE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EMIT...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTH OF SMITHFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE KENLY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 106 AND 132.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT
IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND
USE EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...STANDING
WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS WHERE
PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED
VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 7780 3559 7803 3560 7805 3558 7806
      3555 7843 3586 7837 3587 7828 3582 7826
      3588 7822 3593 7782 3586 7783 3586 7781
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 321DEG 7KT 3575 7823

ELLIS

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