River Flood Warning 6, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1032 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...THEN TRACK EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...

TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE... WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC TO THE
NORTH... AND THE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY... PLACING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S. VORT MAX OVER WESTERN NC ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NE.

TWO MAIN THREATS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO BE FLASH FLOODING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY... AS PW VALUES ARE
NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... AND SOILS REMAIN SATURATED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL
REACH 1000-1200 J/KG DESPITE CONTINUING CLOUD COVER. ANY AREAS THAT
BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS WOULD SEE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. BULK
SHEAR INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON TO 35-40 KTS... SUPPORTING ORGANIZED
CELLS. WITH CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS... AND HELICITY BRIEFLY
REACHING ABOVE 200 M2/S2 THIS AFTERNOON... A FEW SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY RESULT... WITH A LOW END TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE.
LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUSING MECHANISM MAY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER... AND THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY...EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SPED UP THIS FEATURE SO MAY SEE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS END A LITTLE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE OCCURRING EARLY TUESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. AS MID
LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD...EXPECT BULK OF SHOWERS TO RESIDE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 BY LATE MORNING...AND EAST OF I-95 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD AID TO DISSIPATE CLOUD COVERAGE. WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS...SENDING TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING WLY SFC
WIND. MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MIN TEMPS 65-70.
-WSS

WEDNESDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH (CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING) MOVES
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON WED...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NW FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. THE
LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A PRONOUNCED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUE WILL
ADVECT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
WED...WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM BY 00Z THU.
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS AT THE BASE OF THE EML MAY SERVE AS AN
EFFECTIVE CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WED...ESP GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A RELATIVELY DRY SFC-H85 AIRMASS INITIALLY IN
PLACE...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING ASIDE FROM A PIEDMONT SFC
TROUGH. HOWEVER...WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WILL ADVECT AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WED...AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER PEAK HEATING IN THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT IF SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
IS A SUFFICIENT TRIGGER...OR IF A SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT (DIFFICULT TO TELL AT THIS RANGE).
ALTERNATELY...ISOLD TO SCT UPSLOPE CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS COULD TRACK EAST INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PIEDMONT VIA 20-25 KT NW MID-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF MAINTAINING CONVECTION FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER PEAK HEATING. SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP...A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
MODIFIED EML AND STRONG EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TRIAD/NW PIEDMONT LATE WED AFT/EVE. GIVEN
H85 TEMPS IN VICINITY OF 20C AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...OR 89-93F.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST
FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN TN/OH VALLEY BY 12Z
THU...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW. GIVEN THAT THE BEST FORCING
ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...NOCTURNAL COOLING/BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND
RESULTING CIN SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT DESPITE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MUCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG. BARRING ONGOING CONVECTION
PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME THU MORNING...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT:
AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON THU...
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
MIDWEST...WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WELL NORTH THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY
(AND AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW) TO TRACK EAST/SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA
THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE...SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON THU...UNDERNEATH STEEP (7-7.5 C/KM)
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...YIELDING STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS
3000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 35-45 KT (STRONGEST TO THE NORTH)...MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION ESP. IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

GIVEN EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC FORCING...STRONG DESTABILIZATION
/ATYPICALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS/ AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS RANGE DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THU MORNING. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THIS
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AND A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR DISCRETE CELLS
PRIOR TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS GIVEN HIGH DCAPE /COLD POOLS/...
STRONG INSTABILITY AND LITTLE OR NO CAPPING BY PEAK HEATING. IN THIS
SETUP...THE BEST TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN TO THE NORTH
ACROSS VA/DELMARVA...IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE SFC LOW TRACK AND
WARM FRONT...THOUGH THESE TYPE OF DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
AT 72+ HRS OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY
AS-IS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT 50% AND HIGHS 90-95F...WARMEST EAST.
LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACK OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLANTIC.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
N/NNW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY
DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT...PERHAPS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TRANSLATE
SW-NE ACROSS THE REGION.

LATER THIS MORNING...DEEP SW FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS OVER CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE MVFR
RANGE THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY LIFTING INTO THE LOW END VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 8 AM WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGING OCCURRING AT MOST TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS WILL WORK ITS WAY EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE PROJECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT CONVECTION TO END FROM THE
WEST AFTER MID MORNING IN THE WEST...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
2 PM.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY THURSDAY.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT CENTRAL THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...SEC
SHORT TERM...WSS/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...WSS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
943 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

NCZ007-024-025-101430-
DURHAM-ORANGE-PERSON-
943 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PERSON...ORANGE AND DURHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM EDT...

AT 943 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF CARR...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HILLSBOROUGH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SCHLEY...BUSHY
FORK...ROUGEMONT...SURL...AND...ROXBORO.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 157 AND 161.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT
IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND
USE EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3652 7879 3621 7880 3605 7922 3611 7926
      3621 7926 3625 7922 3625 7916 3630 7916
      3655 7883
TIME...MOT...LOC 1343Z 230DEG 30KT 3616 7917

KRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1134 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

NCZ025-040-041-101630-
CHATHAM-DURHAM-WAKE-
1134 AM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WAKE...DURHAM AND CHATHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1133 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DURHAM TO CARPENTER TO
MONCURE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DURHAM TO 7 MILES WEST OF
CARY TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GORMAN...
MORRISVILLE...RDU INTERNATIONAL...NEW HILL...CARY...FUQUAY-VARINA.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT
IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND
USE EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7881 3607 7879 3607 7868 3597 7843
      3594 7839 3593 7835 3589 7835 3564 7855
      3552 7871 3558 7891 3557 7893 3563 7916
      3586 7904 3587 7901 3594 7901 3611 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1533Z 259DEG 18KT 3601 7886 3582 7890
          3566 7903

KRR