Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN JUL 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE PARKED OVER THE WESTERN US. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND MONSOON MOISTURE IS SHUNTED
EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THUS VERY LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FLOW RETURNS TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SURGE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE OUT OF AZ AND SOUTHERN CA NORTHWARD INTO UT
AND SOUTHERN ID FOR THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MONSOON
MOISTURE REPEATEDLY SLOSHES INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND RETREATS INTO
NORTHERN UT. AT PRESENT TIME...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH MONSOON
SURGES AFFECTING MOST OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DSH

&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLOWER TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT STILL
HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z AS WILL
STILL SEE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT UNDERNEATH STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL SEE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR.  GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT OVER THE
DISTRICT AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING.  COULD SEE
LOCAL GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.  EXPECT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY BUT WILL BE MORE IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER.  EXPECT DRYING CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY WITH MUCH
LESS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH THE DRYING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS SHOULD DROP AS WELL BY MID WEEK WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN
THE LOW TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.  GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
427 PM MDT SUN JUL 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             12 ENE IDAHOME          42.47N 113.15W
07/07/2013  M0.25 INCH       CASSIA             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.30 OF RAIN IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME - STRONG GUSTY WINDS

&&

PANGEL