Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
147 PM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF DRY AIR
THAT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS MORNING AND IS NOW MOVING TO
THE EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. AT NOON TIME...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH FROM BOISE TO YELLOWSTONE. ALSO
WATCHING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NEVADA THAT COULD TRACK NORTH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AND CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. ON
THE GOOD SIDE...SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AIR IS
DRIER THAN YESTERDAY...ABOUT .6 TO .7 INCH IN THE NARROW BAND OF
DRY AIR AND INCREASING AGAIN TOWARDS BOISE. SO THAT DRY BAND IS
NOT AS DRY AS IT MIGHT APPEAR TO BE AND ISOLATED STORMS STILL
MIGHT PUT DOWN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SHOULD DRIFT INTO THE SNAKE
PLAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MINIMAL WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME
MOISTURE FROM UTAH DIRECTION SURGES BACK TO IDAHO SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP HERE. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW
PRESSURE DISTURBANCE OVER THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...MODELS ARE PROVIDING A MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
IDAHO UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WE EXPERIENCED THE
PAST FEW DAYS REBUILDS OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...BUT AT THIS
TIME MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY ADDITIONAL
MONSOON MOISTURE FINDING ITS WAY TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. VERY SPOTTY
CONVECTION MIGHT BE SEEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWER VALLEY
TEMPERATURES HOLD FLAT AROUND 90F FOR ABOUT 4 DAYS..THEN INCREASE
2 TO 4 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER TROF PUSHING EAST AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   HAVE VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES.   ANY OF THEM COULD SEE A
THUNDERSTORM ON SITE THROUGH 03Z.  IF ANY CLOSE ENOUGH COULD SEE
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VALLEY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.  IT WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED IN ZONES 427...413...AND 411 WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER
WEST.  COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.  EXPECT ELEVATED AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY
EXPECTED BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
GK

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
339 AM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013

IDZ017>025-031-032-061245-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
339 AM MDT FRI JUL 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER
PERIOD DEVELOPS AFTER TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

MESSICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
522 PM MDT FRI JUL 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             15 S ROCKLAND           42.36N 112.83W
07/05/2013  E0.25 INCH       POWER              ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND ONE INCH OF RAIN FALL

&&

DPHELPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
537 PM MDT FRI JUL 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             VIRGINIA                42.50N 112.17W
07/05/2013  E0.75 INCH       BANNOCK            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VISIBILITY DOWN TO 20 FEET IN HEAVY RAIN

&&

PANGEL

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