Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CENTRAL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
T CERTAINLY HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
ACRS THE REGION.  IT SEEMED LIKE THE PHL METRO AREA WAS WHERE MOST
OF THE DEVELOPMENT GOT STARTED AND THEN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
BOUNDARIES AROUND, THERE WAS MORE DEVELOPMENT AND MORE.  NOW, PRECIP
IN THESE LOCATIONS SEEMS TO HAVE WOUND DOWN WHILE THERE IS AN
INCREASE ACRS THE N, ASSOCD WITH ANOTHER S/WV.

AS THIS S/WV MOVES ACRS THE AREA EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, BUT
THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH AND WHERE.  WILL THE AFOREMENTIONED
ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER, AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PUT THE
KIBOSH ON MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT FURTHER S?  WILL CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER IN THESE LOCATIONS ALSO PREVENT FURTHER STORMS?  LATEST
STLT IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING NOT TOO FAR TO THE W.  SO FOR NOW, WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LIKELY POPS THRU LATE AFTN AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
TO CHC THU ERLY EVE AND THEN FURTHER DECREASE INTO THE NIGHT.  A
CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION SLOWLY FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT AND END THE
PRECIP THREAT.

HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER, RAIN AND SHORTER SEPTEMBER DAYS
HAVE NECESSITATED A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN MAX TEMPS TODAY.  MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE STRUGGLED IN THE LOW-MID 70S, AND WE'RE CERTAINLY
PAST PEAK HEATING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL DAY, ANY SHOWER OR STORM COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A MUCH BETTER DAY IS IN STORE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE W.  SOME GUID INDICATES THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIP IN THE MRNG (MAINLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT), BUT
QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  SO, FOR NOW WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHCS ERLY AND THEN
NO POPS FOR THE AFTN/EVE, BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING LIKE TODAY.  WITH
MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S,
HOWEVER, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING THRU THE 60S AND EVEN INTO THE 50S BY MID-LATE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO BE SHARPER THAN THE WRF-NMMB.
OVERALL THIS 12Z MODEL RUN WAS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE OVERALL FAIRLY
CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO PMDHMD AS THE OP GFS RUN IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN AND WILL BE GIVEN HIGHER WEIGHT THAN AVERAGE.
THE HIGHEST IMPACTING WEATHER IS IN THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM WITH
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH AROUND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
THERE WILL BE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES, BUT BOTH LOOK TO
HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT AT THIS JUNCTURE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST LEG DOWNWARD OF TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE LONG TERM. THE LONG WAVE TROF IS YET TO CLEAR
OUR CWA AT THE START OF THE EVENING, SO WE CONTINUED THE IDEA WITH
PVA INTO PART OF THE NIGHT OF KEEPING SOME CLOUDINESS PRESENT IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH. THE OVERALL GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. DONT KNOW IF THIS IS
GOING TO BE THE CASE WITH THE DNVA 2ND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THUS WE
WILL OPT FOR SLIGHTLY MORE MIXING AND THUS AN AVERAGE OF STAT
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CRESTING OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY MEAGER AND THE FCST
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS IN THE 100S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD GIVEN FCST 925 MB AND 850MB TEMPS
AND ALSO EXPECTED WARMING ALOFT AS THE DAY CONTINUES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS THE REVERSE WHERE MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO HIGH (BANKING ON
THE CLOUDS) AND WE WENT BELOW IT.

WE DID KEEP THE THURSDAY FCST DRY WITH THE NEXT CFP. GREATER
CONFIDENCE NORTH THAN SOUTH BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
FRONT. SOUTH THE FORECAST MLCAPE (IF THERE IS ANY DEPENDING UPON
YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE) IS NOT IMPRESSING US AND HAS NOT REACHED THE
POINT WHERE WE ARE UNCOMFORTABLE LEAVING THE GRIDS/FCST DRY. TO
THAT END, THE FORECAST MOISTURE RECOVERY IS NOT ROBUST. THE FCST
JET IS DECENT AS IS THE FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, SO WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MOISTURE RETURN IN THE DAYS AHEAD AS WE
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE ON THE FORMER THAN THE LATTER. WE LIKE THE
HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING OF THE CFP.

THEN ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK IS EXPECTED. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVE TO NORMAL THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM. THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT ON
THU NGT TO TOTALLY DECOUPLE, MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN
WHICH MINS ARE FCST TO BE 5-15F LOWER THAN URBAN AREAS AND LOCALES
RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE.

SATURDAY WE SHOULD START MODERATING PRECEDING THE NEXT CFP. THE
SUNDAY CFP DOES NOT LOOK THAT FOREBODING EITHER. POPS WERE BASED ON
AN HPC/CONTINUITY BLEND. ITS A LONG WAY OUT, BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT
SUPPORT THUNDER. WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE HIGH END OF STAT GUIDANCE
BASED ON EXPECTED MAXS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SHOULD NOT BE LOWER.
THEN A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. THE UPSHOT
FOR THE LONG TERM, NO DEW POINTS AS HUMID AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ALMOST ALL TAF SITES HAVE GONE VFR LATE THIS AFTN AFTER A VERY
DIFFICULT MORNING AND ERLY AFTN!  THE HVY PRECIP AND TSRA ACRS SERN
PA AND SRN NJ THAT WAS IMPACTING A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA HAS
DISSIPATED OR BECOME MORE ISOLATED. THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO
THE NW AND MORE STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THAT THAT COULD IMPACT KABE
OR KRDG.  HOWEVER, POP UP STORMS ARE STILL PSBL ANYWHERE, AND LWR
CIGS ARE PSBL AS WELL.   A CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO ERLY TUE MRNG.

WITH THE WET GROUND IN MANY LOCATIONS FROM TODAY'S RAIN, AND DEW
POINT STILL HIGH OVERNIGHT, EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT
THE NRMLY AFFECTED LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.  ITS PSBL THIS CUD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND WILL SEE WHAT LATER DATA
SUGGESTS.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER DAY!  AFTER THE MRNG, IT SHUD BE VFR
ALL AROUND! A W TO NW WIND IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL HELP DRY THINGS
OUT WITH SPEEDS GENLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. POSSIBLY
SOME FOG RELATED RESTRICTIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS IN
RURAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDS ON THE AREA WATERS WITH A SWLY FLOW GENLY 10
KTS OR LESS WITH GUSTS 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.  THE WIND WILL BECOME W
THEN NW AT THE SAME SPEED BY TUE AFTN AS A CDFNT WORKS ITS WAY THRU
THE CSTL WATERS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3 FT. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER BEHIND
COLD FRONTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS BUILD OVER THE AREA WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMC/GIGI
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...AMC/GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...AMC/GIGI/NIERENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
324 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-031930-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
324 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF MULTIPLE STORMS CROSS THE SAME AREA THEN
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-031930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
324 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
310 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             39.93N  75.32W
09/02/2013                   DELAWARE           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BJS WHOLESALE PARKING LOT FLOODED..NUMEROUS ROADS
            FLOODED IN SPRINGFIELD AND UPPER DARBY TWP..VEHICLE
            ENDED UP IN CREEK.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300406

BUNKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
311 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SOMERDALE               39.85N  75.02W
09/02/2013                   CAMDEN             NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING WITH SEVERAL CARS STUCK IN
            FLOOD WATERS.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300402

BUNKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
314 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

PAZ054-055-062-022015-
CARBON PA-MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
314 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CARBON...NORTHERN
NORTHAMPTON AND SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 310 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TRACHSVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR KRESGEVILLE AROUND 320 PM...MERWINSBURG
AROUND 330 PM...FIDDLETOWN AROUND 340 PM...ROSSLAND AROUND 350 PM...
SAYLORSBURG AROUND 410 PM AND WIND GAP AROUND 420 PM.

LAT...LON 4098 7514 4097 7513 4069 7521 4087 7564
      4099 7557 4099 7513

FORECASTER: GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

PAZ061-062-022045-
LEHIGH PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
402 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEHIGH AND NORTHAMPTON
COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF LEHIGH AND
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES AT 400 PM EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
GENERALLY MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES
WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LAT...LON 4088 7505 4085 7507 4085 7509 4082 7509
      4079 7511 4077 7513 4078 7517 4075 7520
      4073 7518 4069 7520 4068 7518 4063 7522
      4042 7548 4070 7579 4078 7568

FORECASTER: GORSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
432 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PHILADELPHIA            39.95N  75.16W
09/02/2013                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            5 TREES DOWN

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300399

BUNKER/GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
444 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

PAZ061-022130-
LEHIGH PA-
444 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH COUNTY...

AT 440 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COFFEETOWN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ALLENTOWN AROUND 450 PM...EMMAUS AROUND 500
PM...ZIONSVILLE AROUND 510 PM AND COOPERSBURG AROUND 520 PM.

LAT...LON 4068 7559 4054 7534 4043 7547 4042 7548
      4062 7568

FORECASTER: GORSE