Freeze Watch 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

679 
WWUS71 KPHI 232236
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...SEVERAL NIGHTS OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

.CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S NEAR DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
POCONOS COULD HAVE TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IF
THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EVEN GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-240900-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
636 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...THE GROWING SEASON ENDS FRIDAY WHEN FROST OR FREEZE 
  PRODUCTS ARE NO LONGER ISSUED THIS FALL FOR THIS AREA OF 
  NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-240900-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
636 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
  WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES OR FROST. A REPEAT RISK FOR FROST OR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES EXISTS HERE FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

PAZ101-103-105-240900-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...
POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
636 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS IF LEFT
  UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

476 
WWUS71 KPHI 240753
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...SEVERAL NIGHTS OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

.CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY COULD HAVE TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
FREEZING... ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH. THERE
APPEARS TO BE AN EVEN GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-241300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131024T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
353 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED 
  THUS PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...THE GROWING SEASON ENDS FRIDAY WHEN FROST OR FREEZE 
  PRODUCTS ARE NO LONGER ISSUED THIS FALL FOR THIS AREA OF 
  NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-241300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
353 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED 
  THUS PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING 
  WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING 
  TEMPERATURES OR FROST. A REPEAT RISK FOR FROST OR FREEZING 
  TEMPERATURES EXISTS HERE FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

PAZ101-103-105-241300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...
POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
353 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS IF 
  LEFT UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

895 
WWUS71 KPHI 241300
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...TWO MORE NIGHTS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...

.NOT MUCH FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCURRED EARLY THIS THURSDAY
MORNING BECAUSE OF A LITTLE STIRRING BY THE WEST WIND. THE WIND
MAY AGAIN BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT A FROST OR FREEZE.
HOWEVER...OPPORTUNITY APPEARS GREATER FOR A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST OR FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDED THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE IN OUR AREA UNTIL DAWN SATURDAY.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-241400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131024T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
900 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING.

THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS WITH THIS ISSUANCE ACROSS THIS
AREA OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. 

NO FURTHER FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED HERE THIS FALL. 

$$

NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-242100-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131024T1300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
900 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S LATE THIS COMING THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...THE GROWING SEASON WILL OFFICIALLY END SHORTLY FOR A
  LARGE PORTION OF THIS AREA. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

PAZ101-103-105-241400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131024T1300Z/
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...
POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
900 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.



$$


DRAG

579 
WWUS71 KPHI 241855
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
255 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...TWO MORE NIGHTS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE
AND MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE...


NJZ007>010-PAZ061-062-242000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
255 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FREEZE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL 
PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN MUCH OF THIS AREA THIS WEEK.

AN EVEN HARDER FROST OR FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED EITHER TOMORROW MORNING
OR SATURDAY MORNING.

FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NO LONGER BE ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES
THIS FALL...WHICH ARE LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
78.

$$

PAZ060-250300-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0003.131025T0800Z-131025T1300Z/
BERKS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...READING
255 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...TOWARD DAWN.

* CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE..THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT MORE
  THAN SCATTERED OR ISOLATED REPORTS OF FROST OR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES. ALSO...CLOUD COVER MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD DAWN FROM
  THE NORTHWEST. 

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST OR
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY AND OF LONGER DURATION.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-NJZ021-022-027-PAZ101>103-250300-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FR.Y.0012.131025T0800Z-131025T1300Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...HONEY BROOK...
OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN
255 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW OR MID 30S.

* TIMING...TOWARD DAWN.

* CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT MORE
  THAN SCATTERED OR ISOLATED REPORTS OF FROST OR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES. LOCATIONS NEAR LARGE BODIES OF WATER OR IN URBAN
  CENTERS ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO REPORT ANY FROST OR FREEZE DAMAGE
  LATE TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST OR
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY AND OF LONGER DURATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$



DRAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
208 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST DURING MIDDAY
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GROWING SEASON: WE'LL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR MONROE
COUNTY BUT ESSENTIALLY THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED THERE THIS MORNING
AS THE ENTIRE COUNTY WAS BELOW FREEZING AND MORE THAN 50 PCT OF
MONROE COUNTY HAD FREEZING TEMPS FOR 3 HOURS OR LONGER. SUSSEX
COUNTY NJ WAS CLOSE BUT OFFICIALLY THEIR GROWING SEASON CONTINUES
ANOTHER DAY.

THE GROWING SEASON WILL LIKELY END FOR A LARGE PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING!

THE 1230PM ESTF NEAR TERM PRODUCTS UPDATE SHARPLY DEFINED RAIN/NO
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEST EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY
EDGES EAST ACROSS NJ. THE VORT MAX GENERATED SHOWERS IN WESTERN PA
WILL PROBABLY SMATTER NE PA AND FAR NW NJ WITH A SHOWER MID OR
LATE AFTN. THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS FAR TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY
SNOW MIX ABOVE 1800 FT THIS AFTN IN NE PA AT LEAST NOT BEFORE 22Z.

UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT BENEFIT THE RECENTLY DRY NW NJ AND NE
PA...WHERE OCTOBER AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 25 PCT OF NORMAL!
NO RAIN OR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THERE TODAY.

NLY WIND G 15-20KT BACKS TO NW AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

TONIGHT...ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN THE NW PTN OF THE
FCST AREA SHOULD END BY 04Z. ITS POSSIBLE THERE MIGHT BE A MIX OF
SNOW WITH ANY LEFTOVER RAIN IN THE TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FT THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES EVENTUALLY CLEAR LATE AND TEMPS HEAD
DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST WHERE THE WIND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FROST ADVY WHERE I THINK THERE
IS SOME DOUBT ABOVE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS BUT AS GOOD A CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD FROST DESPITE SOME LIGHT WIND.

OTRW...THE 330 PM FCST WILL HAVE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE WARNING
CONFIGURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING FORENOON OR THE AFTERNOON.
BLUSTERY AND COOL WITH A WEST WIND GUSTING TO 25 MPH. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR AN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW NJ
AND NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A COOL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE
US THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE LONG TERM, WITH A SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS SPREADING EASTWARD. OF NOTE FOR THE
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRANSPORT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO YIELD SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH MIXED
SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. BRISK WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH OR SO EACH
AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH COOLER MID TO UPPER
40S THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE COOL, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
AND FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO OUR
EAST, WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING BRIEFLY MORE ZONAL AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL, SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MILDER BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH MORE
SUNSHINE OVERALL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE DAY.

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, ECMWF, AND OTHERS WITH REGARDS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. OVERALL, THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH, BUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM, FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE
REGION WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT PATCHES OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS SE OF INTERSTATE
95 AS IN THE 18Z TAFS...DEVELOPED FROM THE MORNING RAIN. TIMING OF THE
MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEPARTURE IS UNCERTAIN BUT BASED ON THE 12Z/23 GFS
TSEC...CLEARED THIS AFTN. RAIN ENDS ALONG THE COAST PROBABLY BY 20Z.
SCT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN E PA AND E MD. NLY WIND WITH SCT GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT BECOMING NW LATER THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS CONTINUING TO
NEAR 20 KT. CONFIDENCE ON TAF DETAILS OF ANY MVFR CIGS IS:
AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING TOWARD MORNING. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES ASSTD
WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING. MAYBE ENDS AS A FLURRY
IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ HIGH TERRAIN...ABOVE 1500 FT.
NW WIND GUST 10-20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH CIGS BECOMING COMMON AOA 4000 FT BY MIDDAY. W
WIND G20-25 KT BY MIDDAY. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR CEILINGS WITH A WEST- NORTHWEST
FLOW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KRDG TO
KABE AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS..MAINLY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING TO NORTH AND WEST
OF KPHL, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE.

WE WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT SCA THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...
WE WILL ADD AN SCA FOR ANZ450 16Z THU-10Z FRIDAY.

ALL THIS ASSTD WITH CAA...DEEPENING BL STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH
MOMENTUM TRANSFER REACHING UP TO AT LEAST 850MB THURSDAY AFTN.

SO IT WONT BE GUSTING 25 KT ALL THE TIME BUT ENOUGH WIND IS EXPECTED
NEAR 25 KT TO BE A HAZARD FOR SMALL CRAFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A BRISK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND OUR
ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SCA CRITERIA MAY BE MET FOR A TIME INTO THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND LIKEWISE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, AS
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LOOK TO OCCUR. THEREAFTER, WIND GUSTS
COULD AGAIN REACH SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SEAS MAY ALSO REACH
AROUND 5 FEET FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A SAMPLING OF MAX RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR TODAY AS OF 18Z...

ASOS
KACY .50
KMIV .42

DELAWARE: BRIDGEVILLE .63...ELLENDALE .67 SEAFORD .55 DOVER .38
REDDEN .33 SANDTOWN AND VIOLA .31 EACH

IN NJ
BARNEGAT LIGHT .30 OCEANVILLE .41 ACY MARINA .36

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED HAS A TIPPING BUCKET PROBLEM AND WE WILL BE ESTIMATING RAINFALL
THERE TODAY FROM MULTIPLE MESONET SOURCES. THEIR GUST OF 33 KT AT
1157Z IS ERRONEOUS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ101-103-
     105.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ060>062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ008>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ007.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-
     451>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  208
SHORT TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER 208
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE 208
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE 208
CLIMATE...208
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-241045-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
633 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

THERE IS A CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ008>010-PAZ101-103-105-241045-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
UPPER BUCKS-
633 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF FROST FORMATION THURSDAY MORNING IN AREAS
OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>025-027-PAZ070-071-102-104-
106-241045-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
633 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FROST FORMATION THURSDAY MORNING IN NON
URBAN AREAS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA... EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY.
REGIONS WITHIN A COUPLE OF MILES OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DELAWARE
AND CHESAPEAKE BAYS HAVE A LOWER CHANCE OF ANY FROST OCCURRENCE
THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ007-PAZ060>062-241045-
WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
633 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING
IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-241045-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
633 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.