Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Freeze Warnings in 2013

Freeze Warning 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

October 23, 2013Sussex County, New Jersey; Carbon County, Monroe County, Pennsylvania

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this freeze warning at Oct 23, 2013, 4:07 AM EDT for Sussex County, New Jersey; Carbon County, Monroe County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Oct 24, 2013, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 23, 2013, 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 24, 2013, 2:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 24, 2013, 9:00 AM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Counties Sussex County, NJ, Carbon County, PA, Monroe County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 140 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2013-10-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2013-10-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 29 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1268 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
89 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
29 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

259 
WWUS71 KPHI 230807
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...SEVERAL NIGHTS OF POTENTIAL FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE HORIZON FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL AREAS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS
COULD DIP BELOW FREEZING. TONIGHT IS THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL
WHERE CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE MORE FROST AND FREEZE ISSUES.

PAZ054-055-232100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
407 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NJZ008>010-PAZ101-103-105-232100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE
407 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS IF
  LEFT UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

NJZ007-PAZ060>062-232100-
/O.EXB.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
407 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND WIND 
  TO PREVENT A FREEZE OR FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NJZ001-232100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
407 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND WIND 
  TO PREVENT A FREEZE OR FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
782 
WWUS71 KPHI 231018
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...SEVERAL NIGHTS OF POTENTIAL FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE HORIZON FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL AREAS TO DROP
INTO THE MID-30S BY THURSDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS
COULD DIP BELOW FREEZING. TONIGHT IS THE FIRST NIGHT OF SEVERAL
WHERE CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE MORE FROST AND FREEZE ISSUES.

NJZ001-232115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
618 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-232115-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
618 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED 
  THUS PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NJZ008>010-PAZ101-103-105-232115-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE
618 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS IF 
  LEFT UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

NJZ007-PAZ060>062-232115-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
618 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND FREEZING.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED 
  THUS PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND WIND 
  TO PREVENT A FREEZE OR FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
570 
WWUS71 KPHI 231936
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...SEVERAL NIGHTS OF POTENTIAL FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE HORIZON FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...

.CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S NEAR DAWN THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS
COULD DIP BELOW FREEZING. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EVEN GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-240830-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
336 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED 
  THUS PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE. ITS POSSIBLE SOME AREAS WILL ESCAPE
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS A WIND STIRRING DURING THE
  PREDAWN HOURS.

* OUTLOOK...THE GROWING SEASON ENDS FRIDAY WHEN FROST OR FREEZE
  PRODUCTS ARE NO LONGER ISSUED THIS FALL FOR THIS AREA OF 
  NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NJZ007-PAZ060>062-240830-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
WARREN-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON
336 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE FREEZE WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST.

* TIMING...NEAR DAWN THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED 
  THUS PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FROST.

* OUTLOOK...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR EARLY FRIDAY
  MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES OR FROST. A REPEAT RISK FOR FROST OR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES EXISTS HERE FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NJZ008>010-240830-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE
336 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST.

* TIMING...NEAR DAWN THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED 
  THUS PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FROST.

* OUTLOOK...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR EARLY FRIDAY
  MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES OR FROST. A REPEAT RISK FOR FROST OR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES EXISTS HERE FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

PAZ101-103-105-240830-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...
POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
336 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST.

* TIMING...NEAR DAWN THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS IF 
  LEFT UNCOVERED.

* CONFIDENCE...AVERAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT A
  FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
679 
WWUS71 KPHI 232236
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...SEVERAL NIGHTS OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

.CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S NEAR DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
POCONOS COULD HAVE TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IF
THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EVEN GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-240900-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.131024T0600Z-131024T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
636 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...THE GROWING SEASON ENDS FRIDAY WHEN FROST OR FREEZE 
  PRODUCTS ARE NO LONGER ISSUED THIS FALL FOR THIS AREA OF 
  NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-240900-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
636 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
  WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES OR FROST. A REPEAT RISK FOR FROST OR FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES EXISTS HERE FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

PAZ101-103-105-240900-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...
POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
636 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS IF LEFT
  UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
476 
WWUS71 KPHI 240753
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...SEVERAL NIGHTS OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

.CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY COULD HAVE TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
FREEZING... ESPECIALLY IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH. THERE
APPEARS TO BE AN EVEN GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-241300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131024T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
353 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS WILL BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED 
  THUS PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...THE GROWING SEASON ENDS FRIDAY WHEN FROST OR FREEZE 
  PRODUCTS ARE NO LONGER ISSUED THIS FALL FOR THIS AREA OF 
  NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-241300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
353 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED 
  THUS PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING 
  WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING 
  TEMPERATURES OR FROST. A REPEAT RISK FOR FROST OR FREEZING 
  TEMPERATURES EXISTS HERE FOR EARLY SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

PAZ101-103-105-241300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.131024T0800Z-131024T1300Z/
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...
POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
353 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS IF 
  LEFT UNCOVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
895 
WWUS71 KPHI 241300
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...TWO MORE NIGHTS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...

.NOT MUCH FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCURRED EARLY THIS THURSDAY
MORNING BECAUSE OF A LITTLE STIRRING BY THE WEST WIND. THE WIND
MAY AGAIN BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT A FROST OR FREEZE.
HOWEVER...OPPORTUNITY APPEARS GREATER FOR A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST OR FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING...PROVIDED THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS DO NOT ARRIVE IN OUR AREA UNTIL DAWN SATURDAY.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-241400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131024T1300Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
900 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING.

THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS WITH THIS ISSUANCE ACROSS THIS
AREA OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. 

NO FURTHER FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED HERE THIS FALL. 

$$

NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-242100-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131024T1300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.131025T0700Z-131025T1300Z/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
900 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S LATE THIS COMING THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PLANTS AND CROPS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED THUS
  PUTTING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

* OUTLOOK...THE GROWING SEASON WILL OFFICIALLY END SHORTLY FOR A
  LARGE PORTION OF THIS AREA. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

PAZ101-103-105-241400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FR.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-131024T1300Z/
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...
POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE
900 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.



$$


DRAG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this freeze warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this freeze warning went out at Oct 22, 9:37 PM EDT, 6 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 22, 9:37 PM EDT, 6 hours 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST, TRACKING NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A VIGOROUS TROUGH FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A POTENT 250 MB JET IS
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO NEW ENGLAND, WITH ANOTHER
SEGMENT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND EASTWARD TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE STALLING NEAR OUR ATLANTIC COAST AS IT
AWAITS ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TONIGHT ARE CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHCS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRAVELING WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AFTER ABOUT
06Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE SLOWED THE POP INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH A FAIR AMOUNT. THE MAIN FOCUS IS ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO
PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET, MORE CLOUDINESS SHOULD
TEND TO HOLD ON ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE, CLEARING
HAS TAKEN PLACE ALTHOUGH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE, LOWERED THE SKY COVER SUBSTANTIALLY TO
START BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS THEN RESUMED AN INCREASE
GENERALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE CLEARING THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE
COMBINED WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS IS ALLOWING
THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKER. WE USED MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND
AND THIS STILL GETS SOME LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES ESPECIALLY. WE ARE BANKING ON AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS TO KEEP MOST AREAS FROM GETTING DOWN INTO THE FROST RANGE,
HOWEVER GIVEN TRENDS WE DID INTRODUCE PATCHY FROST WHERE LOWS WERE
FORECAST TO BE 35 DEGREES AND LOWER. NO ADVISORY ATTM GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE AND ALSO THE ANTICIPATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 01Z OBSERVATIONS, THEN
SOME BLENDING IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP ASSIST
WITH TRENDS THUS FAR. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WET AND COOL DAY FOR AT LEAST THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON SOUTH
AND EASTWARD AS A COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SOME OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD.
THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A RIBBON OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT
RAMPS UP AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES WHILE DRIVING THE
SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO BE
STRONGER AND FARTHER WESTWARD WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
THEREFORE, TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT SOME WITH A WESTWARD
EXTENT. MARFC QPF WAS BLENDED IN WITH THE LATEST WPC QPF. LEANED
JUST A LITTLE COOLER THAN MET/MAV BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES, WHICH
RESULTED IN KNOCKING 2-4 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH
GREATEST DIFFERENCE WHERE THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL AXIS IS, JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF I-95 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL, A DAY WHICH WILL CLEARLY FEEL LIKE AUTUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES...CALENDAR AVERAGES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PROBABLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL
NEXT TUESDAY. PHL HAS AVERAGED 5.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST 21 DAYS OF THE MONTH. DESPITE THE COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN
OF THIS COMING WEEK OR SO...THAT DEPARTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE
HALVED WHEN IT COMES TO THE EVENTUAL MONTHLY SUMMARY. IF OUR FCST
IS GENEROUSLY WARM...THE PHL AVERAGE COULD BE DOWN TO 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD BE MORE OR LESS REPRESENTATIVE FOR MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE REGION
WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING AND SOME CLEARING IN THE
CLOUDS. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ATTM AND BRINGS A
GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD/FREEZE AND FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER SOME WIND AND THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER MAY
LIMIT THE THREAT THURSDAY MORNING. THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NJ
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THESE CONDITIONS AND A FREEZE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARBON, MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES. AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WATCH CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 50% FOR LOWS
BELOW FREEZING OR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE TO TRANSPORT SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND SOME
SPOTTY SPRINKLES BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
MIXING IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE POCONOS. WENT A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MEX GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE FLOW
AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -4C. ONCE THE LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE
STABLE IN THE EVENING THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BOTH NIGHTS.
ALSO THE WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHTER AT NIGHT LEADING TO A
MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF FROST AND/OR FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

SATURDAY...SHOULD FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN MODELED TWO
METER TEMPERATURES, CLOSER TO STAT GUIDANCE. CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.

SUNDAY...A CLIPPER IS LIKELY TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY AND IS SHOWING UP WELL ON THE GFS ENSEMBLES/ ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION STARTING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WARMING OVERALL, TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY
STILL BE MARGINAL ENOUGH ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NW NJ(SURFACE MID
30'S AND 850 MB TEMPS -2C)FOR SNOW TO MIX IN BRIEFLY AROUND
SUNRISE. LATER TIMING THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WOULD RESULT IN A
WARMER PROFILE SO THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED. NO
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A WARMER
PATTERN WITH A VARIABLE FLOW AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVERHEAD
WITH MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS COULD BE
NOTED IF THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOUTHEAST FLOW OCCURS. MIXED
IN CLOUDS NORTH PER WPC TUESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
TILL AFTER FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING CEILING ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL AREA
ON SOUTHWARD. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER
DAYBREAK. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS IS MOSTLY AT KMIV AND
KACY. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FROM KILG TO KPHL/KPNE
AND KTTN EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD FAVOR SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES AS
WELL AT TIMES. ANY LOWERED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE BY
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE RAIN ENDS. KRDG AND KABE HAVE A LOWER CHANCE
OF SEEING RAIN, THEREFORE IT WAS LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME. NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECREASING CLOUDS WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS ENDING,
MAINLY VFR CIGS WEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR CIGS. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR PHL, MPO, ABE, TTN AND PNE.
POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL, WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FROM
5 TO 15 KNOTS. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...VFR CIGS WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN WEATHER STORY IN SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED GUSTS INCREASING TO 25
KNOTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHC ON PORTIONS OF THE
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS, NAM AND
ECMWF SHOW WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER NEARING 25 KNOTS HOWEVER THE
ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST. EVEN SO, IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE DELAWARE BAY IN THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER,
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
MANASQUAN INLET SOUTHWARD EFFECTIVE AT NOON WEDNESDAY.

BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, THEN SUBSIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME RAIN OVERSPREADS POTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA ALREADY POSTED FOR THE ATLC WATERS AND
POSSIBLY NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY IN WEDNESDAYS
ISSUANCE'S. THIS FOR BLUSTERY NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEST WINDS MAY BE AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
IN A CONTINUED COLD UNSTABLE PATTERN.

WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DRAG/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE/SZATKOWSKI
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 22, 4:49 PM EDT, 11 hours 18 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
449 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062-070-
071-101>106-232100-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
449 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING
IN NON URBAN AREAS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN NON URBAN AREAS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. REGIONS WITHIN A
COUPLE OF MILES OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DELAWARE AND CHESAPEAKE
BAYS HAVE A LOWER CHANCE OF ANY FROST OCCURRENCE THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-232100-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
449 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-232100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
449 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 23, 4:07 AM EDTFrost AdvisoryPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Warren29 hr
Oct 23, 3:12 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryPHI51 hr
Oct 23, 3:36 PM EDTFreeze WatchPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Warren23 hr

Nearby

Freeze Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2013Freeze Warnings in New Jersey, 2013Every freeze warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.