Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1119 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLDS BCMG BKN ATTM...LEADING TO PARTIAL INSOLATION OF A VERY MOIST
AND WKLY-CAPPED AMS. A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IS
SPREADING ACRS SRN HALF OF FCST AREA...SUPPLEMENTED FURTHER BY H5
COLD POOL MOVG SEWD FROM MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH APRCHG SHRTWV TROF.
THIS COLD POOL WILL AID IN DVLPMT OF TWO FOCUSED AREAS OF CNVCTN.

ONE CLUSTER HAS BCM MORE VIGOROUS AS OF 15Z IN VCTY OF KERI. THESE
TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD AND WILL RMN GENLY ELEVATED OWING TO COOL
LOW-LVL TEMPS. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS MAY GRAZE NRN ZONES.

SECOND CLUSTER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DVLPMT IN SERN OH AND NRN WV...
ONLY SLGTLY AHD OF THEIR DVLPMT IN HI-RES MODELS. THIS CNVCTN IS
LOCATED IN PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES...HIGHER BNDRY-LYR MSTR
AND BETTER INSOLATION. GIVEN AMPLE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...THIS CLUSTER XPCD TO POSE GREATER THREAT OF SVR WX THIS
AFTN AS HEATING CONTS. STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST VERY LOW
RISK OF TORNADOES...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDS FAVOR DMGG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.

PCPN WILL SPREAD SEWD THIS EVE. RENEWED SHWRS MAY DVLP LATE TNGT
VCTY KCLE AND KERI AND COULD IMPACT NWRN ZONES. CLD CVR WILL LMT
COOLING A BIT...BUT MINIMA SHOULD APRCH DEWPT TEMPS OVNGT. A BIT
OF FOG THUS WILL BE PSBL.

LOW-LVL AMS WILL NOT CHG ON SAT...BUT LAPSE RATES XPCD TO BE WKR.
THUS...WEAKER INSTBY WILL NOT FAVOR SVR WX TMW. BUT TSTMS STILL
LKLY TO DVLP...SPCLY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY FROM NR KERI-
KAKR. POPS WERE INCRD TO LKLY CATEGORY IN NWRN-WRN ZONES AS A
RESULT. MAXIMA WILL BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE.   UPDATE...KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES UNUSUAL RETROGRESSION SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...SLIDING OVER OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH H5 LOW OF -12C TO -14C
DRIFTS SOUTHWEST AS WELL. THIS WILL AID IN DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. WENT WITH DIURNAL TREND IN POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN
EVENING TO BE SHOWERS AND WITH ADDED DAYTIME INSTABILITY BROUGHT
IN CHANCE THUNDER.

MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWEST RETROGRESSION OF THE H5 LOW BUT
PINPOINTING HIGHEST POPS AT THIS TIME DIFFICULT. BOTH NAM AND GFS
SUGGESTING LIKELY POPS LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...POSITIONING OF LIKELY POPS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL.
OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAME OLE-SAME OLE WITH H5 LOW CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IN PLACE AND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POOL
ALOFT...EXPECT MORE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP. IN FACT...SURE
LOOKS LIKE WE NEVER EXPERIENCE AN AIR MASS CHANGE. UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD BY END OF PERIOD AND EXTENSION
OF BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY IFR CONDS WITH EITHER LOW CIGS OR LOW VIS ACRS THE RGN THIS
MRNG. CONDS ARE EPXD TO GRDLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS
MRNG...AND VFR BY AFTN. SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPD ONCE AGAIN TDA.
MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS...BUT DUE TO QNABLE COVG AND TIMING OF
CNVCTN...LEFT OUT MENTION OF TSTMS ATTM. PCPN SHOULD GRDLY DMNSH
THIS EVE...WITH MVFR TO IFR BR/FG DVLPG AGAIN LT TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRNS IN SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE EXPD THRU THE PD AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACRS THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
852 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-023-029-031-
073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-291300-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
852 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PAZ007>009-013>016-022-291300-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-ARMSTRONG-
852 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY HAS LEFT SOIL
CONDITIONS SATURATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS WOULD
LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MANNING

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