Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
327 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE MADE TO REFLECT RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND TO ALSO
EXPAND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FURTHER NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CLDS BCMG BKN ATTM...LEADING TO PARTIAL INSOLATION OF A VERY MOIST
AND WKLY-CAPPED AMS. A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IS
SPREADING ACRS SRN HALF OF FCST AREA...SUPPLEMENTED FURTHER BY H5
COLD POOL MOVG SEWD FROM MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH APRCHG SHRTWV
TROF. THIS COLD POOL WILL AID IN DVLPMT OF TWO FOCUSED AREAS OF
CNVCTN.

ONE CLUSTER HAS BCM MORE VIGOROUS AS OF 15Z IN VCTY OF KERI. THESE
TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD AND WILL RMN GENLY ELEVATED OWING TO COOL
LOW-LVL TEMPS. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS MAY GRAZE NRN ZONES.

SECOND CLUSTER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DVLPMT IN SERN OH AND NRN WV...
ONLY SLGTLY AHD OF THEIR DVLPMT IN HI-RES MODELS. THIS CNVCTN IS
LOCATED IN PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES...HIGHER BNDRY-LYR MSTR
AND BETTER INSOLATION. GIVEN AMPLE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...THIS CLUSTER XPCD TO POSE GREATER THREAT OF SVR WX THIS
AFTN AS HEATING CONTS. STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST VERY LOW
RISK OF TORNADOES...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDS FAVOR DMGG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.

PCPN WILL SPREAD SEWD THIS EVE. RENEWED SHWRS MAY DVLP LATE TNGT
VCTY KCLE AND KERI AND COULD IMPACT NWRN ZONES. CLD CVR WILL LMT
COOLING A BIT...BUT MINIMA SHOULD APRCH DEWPT TEMPS OVNGT. A BIT
OF FOG THUS WILL BE PSBL.

LOW-LVL AMS WILL NOT CHG ON SAT...BUT LAPSE RATES XPCD TO BE WKR.
THUS...WEAKER INSTBY WILL NOT FAVOR SVR WX TMW. BUT TSTMS STILL
LKLY TO DVLP...SPCLY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY FROM NR KERI-
KAKR. POPS WERE INCRD TO LKLY CATEGORY IN NWRN-WRN ZONES AS A
RESULT. MAXIMA WILL BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE.   UPDATE...KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES UNUSUAL RETROGRESSION SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS SUIT...SLIDING OVER OHIO
VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH H5 LOW OF -12C TO -14C
DRIFTS SOUTHWEST AS WELL. THIS WILL AID IN DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. WENT WITH DIURNAL TREND IN POPS. ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN
EVENING TO BE SHOWERS AND WITH ADDED DAYTIME INSTABILITY BROUGHT
IN CHANCE THUNDER.

MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWEST RETROGRESSION OF THE H5 LOW BUT
PINPOINTING HIGHEST POPS AT THIS TIME DIFFICULT. BOTH NAM AND GFS
SUGGESTING LIKELY POPS LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...POSITIONING OF LIKELY POPS DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON MODEL.
OPTED TO KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAME OLE-SAME OLE WITH H5 LOW CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IN PLACE AND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POOL
ALOFT...EXPECT MORE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP. IN FACT...SURE
LOOKS LIKE WE NEVER EXPERIENCE AN AIR MASS CHANGE. UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES NORTHWARD BY END OF PERIOD AND EXTENSION
OF BERMUDA HIGH THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD. CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO
EXPAND. CONDITIONS COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT CROSSES A TAF SITE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT
SOME MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
OVERNIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-014-020>023-029-031-
073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-291930-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN PITTSBURGH.

PAZ007>009-015-016-291930-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ON THURSDAY HAS LEFT SOIL
CONDITIONS SATURATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN PITTSBURGH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
306 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FAIRMONT                39.48N  80.15W
06/28/2013                   MARION             WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOCUST AVE AREA AND ADJACENT LOW LYING AREAS AND WATER
            COMING UP THROUGH THE STORM DRAINS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1302246

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
324 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

OHZ039-040-048-049-058-282015-
CARROLL OH-COSHOCTON OH-GUERNSEY OH-HARRISON OH-TUSCARAWAS OH-
324 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL GUERNSEY...
NORTHERN COSHOCTON...NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL AND
TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES...

AT 322 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 3 MILES
WEST OF BOLIVAR TO NELLIE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NELLIE...             BLISSFIELD...         STRASBURG...
  BOLIVAR...            WARSAW...             SUGARCREEK...
  BALTIC...             MINERAL CITY...       DOVER...
  COSHOCTON...          NEW PHILADELPHIA...   STONE CREEK...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING
TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4046 8190 4045 8168 4056 8167 4065 8147
      4049 8097 4019 8157 4034 8216

MANNING

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