Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
538 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MRNG POPS. AN AREA OF SHWRS AND SCT
TSTMS WL MOVE E ACRS THE AREA THIS MRNG. EXP WE WL SEE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY FOR A WHILE LATER THIS MRNG AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT E.
THIS AFTN A CDFNT WL BEGIN TO APRCH FM THE W...WITH ADDNL TSTMS
DVLPG. EXP CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG OVR THE RGN. SHEAR VALUES NOT
IMPRESSIVE BUT SOME DRYING IN THE MID LVLS SHOULD BRING A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WL ALSO BE PSBL. EXP THIS TO
CONT INTO THE EVE BEFORE INSTBY GRDLY DCRS AFT SUNSET.

PWATS WL REMAIN HIGH SO THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTS. NO
CHGS TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM...PLACEMENT STILL LOOKS GOOD. MAY
BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING FURTHER NORTH BUT THREAT NOT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE WATCH ATTM. PCPN SHOULD DMNSH/MOVE OUT
OF THE RGN LTR TNGT AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDS WL FOLLOW FROPA AS HIGH PRES BLDS IN.
AN UPR TROF WL MOVE ACRS THE GT LKS THU EVE BUT NO GOOD MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH SO LEFT FCST DRY. EXP SLIGHTLY BLO SEASONAL AVG
TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BE IN CTRL MUCH OF THE PD. WIDE RANGE OF MDL
SOLUTIONS ERLY NEXT WK IN HANDLING OF AN UPR LOW OVER THE NERN
CONUS. WENT WITH A NAEFS/HPC SOLN WHICH KEEPS MORE UPR LVL RIDGING
ACRS THE RGN. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS ERLY IN THE WK...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHCS TWD MID WK AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. EXP ABV
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS WL CONT TO CROSS THE RGN ERLY THIS MRNG. EXP
MVFR TO LCL IFR WITH THE PCPN. IFR CIGS HAVE DVLPD NR FKL/DUJ AND
THIS SHOULD CONT UNTIL AFT SUNRISE. PCPN SHOULD DCRS LTR THIS MRNG
WITH CONDS GRDLY RETURNING TO VFR THRU THE DAY. A CDFNT WL MOVE
EWD THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH TSTMS PSBL. TIMING OF TSTMS STILL IN QN
SO INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS ATTM. EXP PCPN TO TAPER OFF TNGT AS
WNDS SHIFT TO THE NW AFT FROPA.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS EXPD WITH HIGH PRES IN CTRL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ020-021-029-031-
     073>076.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
406 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-110815-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
406 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ007>009-013>016-022-023-110815-
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-ARMSTRONG-
INDIANA-
406 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND
WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...HEAVY
RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

07