Tornado Warning 51, NWS Paducah, KY

369 
WWUS53 KPAH 060054
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
754 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

KYC075-083-105-060115-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-131006T0115Z/
FULTON KY-GRAVES KY-HICKMAN KY-
754 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
HICKMAN...SOUTHERN GRAVES AND SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 751 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTH FULTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO IN SOUTHWEST OBION 
COUNTY SHORTLY BEFORE 7 PM.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL
         BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FULTON...LYNNVILLE...SEDALIA AND WATER VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER IN A
BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3670 8864 3651 8849 3649 8852 3650 8896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 230DEG 21KT 3646 8888

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
610 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

Updated for 00z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday night)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

As a strong cold front approaches the western fringes of our CWA at
the time of this writing, showers and thunderstorms have developed
as expected.

The front is expected to be approximately halfway across our CWA
around midnight, then exiting the southeast corner of our CWA around
12Z (7AM) Sunday. As the front crosses the region, widespread
showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop. There is a
slight risk of a few storms becoming severe this afternoon and
evening with damaging winds being the main threat.

Aside from a stray severe thunderstorm or two, another, perhaps
bigger concern will be post-frontal heavy rainfall between midnight
and midday Sunday generally over the southeast half of our CWA.
With flow aloft becoming almost parallel to the frontal boundary,
the approach of the right entrance region of a jet max, and PWATs >=
1.5 inches, a NE-SW swath of heavy rainfall is expected to develop
over the aforementioned area. FFG guidance is rather high for most
of our counties, so see no need for any headlines at this time.

Precipitation chances are expected to slowly diminish from northwest
to southeast starting around mid morning Sunday. Beyond that dry
conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the short
term period, but a much cooler airmass overspreading the region will
lower temperatures and humidities considerably through the end of
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

Models agree on a mainly dry forecast in the extended forecast with
cooler air in place. The latest model runs agree on high pressure at
the surface bisecting the forecast area. In addition they indicate
ridging aloft in conjunction at the surface which would dictate a
dry forecast. Skies will be mainly clear although cant rule out a
few friendly cue in the afternoons. Moisture is very slow to return
to the area mainly due to the light transport winds in the boundary
layer. Even when the winds shift southerly late in the forecast they
still remain light. That is until late in the weekend day
8...another system takes shape over the plains and is poised to move
into the heartland late in the weekend. The GFS is not very stable
from run to run with the timing of this system. However the ecmwf
seems to be steady with the timing over the last two runs.

Below normal temperatures will moderate back to normal as we
approach the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

MVFR and Possible brief IFR conditions expected with storms
overnight. Expect winds to veer to the northwest in the fronts
wake then slowly back to the west toward sunrise. Expect VFR
conditions to return to the west after 12z and clearing the east
no later than 18z. May see some patchy fog at KCGI around sunrise.
Winds will be gusty and out ot the west by late morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-062100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
357 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION. IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. NO MAJOR
FLOODING EXPECTED BUT THE USUAL FLOOD PRONE AND LOW LYING AREAS
MAY HAVE BRIEF ISSUES WITH HIGH WATER LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN ASSOCIATED HAZARD WITH ANY
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PLUS
ANY REPORTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
521 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

ILZ078-083-INZ081-082-085-086-052300-
GIBSON IN-PIKE IN-POSEY IN-VANDERBURGH IN-WABASH IL-WHITE IL-
521 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WHITE AND SOUTHERN
WABASH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND GIBSON...NORTHERN PIKE...
NORTHERN POSEY AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VANDERBURGH COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 516 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW HARMONY...OR 13 MILES EAST OF CARMI...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FORT BRANCH...MOUNT CARMEL...PRINCETON...OAKLAND CITY...
  PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...CYNTHIANA...OWENSVILLE...PATOKA...
  WINSLOW...FRANCISCO AND HAZLETON.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
532 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     BARDWELL                36.87N 89.01W
10/05/2013  E0 MPH           CARLISLE           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH WITH SOME ROTATION NOTED IN
            THE CLOUDS

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     BARDWELL                36.87N 89.01W
10/05/2013  E60.00 MPH       CARLISLE           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH WITH SOME ROTATION NOTED IN
            THE CLOUDS

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
10/05/2013                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WALL CLOUD REPORTED BY SPOTTERS IN WESTERN MCCRACKEN
            COUNTY

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
10/05/2013                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NON ROTATING WALL CLOUD. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. NO FUNNEL
            CLOUDS REPORTED.

&&

PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
621 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

MOZ100-107>109-060000-
BUTLER MO-CARTER MO-RIPLEY MO-WAYNE MO-
621 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...RIPLEY...
CARTER AND WESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
VAN BUREN TO GATEWOOD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...PIEDMONT...GATEWOOD...HUNTER...ELLSINORE...
BUDAPEST...NAYLOR...WILLIAMSVILLE...AND NEELYVILLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.