Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
839 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

Current analysis is a very complicated pattern this evening. Front
is through West Plains and St. Louis with bands of showers and
thunderstorms ahead and just behind the front. Rainfall is very
efficient and may have isolated flooding issues yet tonight.
Thinking is at this time that it will not be widespread.

Severe potential still exists. 850 jet is expected to increase and
models indicate more storms could develop and move up from the
north. still have surface based instability over west Kentucky and
this may lift farther north into southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT
OCT 5 2013

Models agree on a mainly dry forecast in the extended forecast with
cooler air in place. The latest model runs agree on high pressure at
the surface bisecting the forecast area. In addition they indicate
ridging aloft in conjunction at the surface which would dictate a
dry forecast. Skies will be mainly clear although cant rule out a
few friendly cue in the afternoons. Moisture is very slow to return
to the area mainly due to the light transport winds in the boundary
layer. Even when the winds shift southerly late in the forecast they
still remain light. That is until late in the weekend day
8...another system takes shape over the plains and is poised to move
into the heartland late in the weekend. The GFS is not very stable
from run to run with the timing of this system. However the ecmwf
seems to be steady with the timing over the last two runs.

Below normal temperatures will moderate back to normal as we
approach the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

MVFR and Possible brief IFR conditions expected with storms
overnight. Expect winds to veer to the northwest in the fronts
wake then slowly back to the west toward sunrise. Expect VFR
conditions to return to the west after 12z and clearing the east
no later than 18z. May see some patchy fog at KCGI around sunrise.
Winds will be gusty and out ot the west by late morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PS
AVIATION...KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
357 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-062100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
357 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION. IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST
GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE QUAD STATE. NO MAJOR
FLOODING EXPECTED BUT THE USUAL FLOOD PRONE AND LOW LYING AREAS
MAY HAVE BRIEF ISSUES WITH HIGH WATER LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN ASSOCIATED HAZARD WITH ANY
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PLUS
ANY REPORTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     BARDWELL                36.87N 89.01W
10/05/2013  E60.00 MPH       CARLISLE           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH WITH SOME ROTATION NOTED IN
            THE CLOUDS

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
556 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
10/05/2013                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WALL CLOUD REPORTED BY SPOTTERS IN WESTERN MCCRACKEN
            COUNTY

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
10/05/2013                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NON ROTATING WALL CLOUD. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. NO FUNNEL
            CLOUDS REPORTED.

&&

PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
621 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

MOZ100-107>109-060000-
BUTLER MO-CARTER MO-RIPLEY MO-WAYNE MO-
621 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...RIPLEY...
CARTER AND WESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
VAN BUREN TO GATEWOOD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...PIEDMONT...GATEWOOD...HUNTER...ELLSINORE...
BUDAPEST...NAYLOR...WILLIAMSVILLE...AND NEELYVILLE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

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